Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Inflation slowed to a 4-year low in April while shelter inflation remained elevated. Despite the easing, inflation may pick up in the coming months as possible inflationary pressure from enacted tariffs and other policy uncertainties continues to threaten economic growth and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, housing inflation remains elevated, but it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for an eighth straight month, matching last month’s lowest level since November 2021. …Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation and with it, overall inflation. This emphasizes why the cost of construction, including the cost of building materials, matters not just for housing but also the inflation outlook and the path of future monetary policy. Consequently, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. 

Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing US economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday. The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%. Markets reacted little to the news, with stock futures pointing flat to slightly lower and Treasury yields mixed. ″“Good news on inflation, and we need it given inflation shocks from tariffs are on their way,” said Robert Frick, at Navy Federal Credit Union. …Shelter prices again were the main culprit in pushing up the inflation gauge. 

Valerie Hansen

Threatened tariffs, announced tariffs, rescinded tariffs, pending negotiations, countervailing duties, a falling bond market, rising mortgage rates—the threats, drama, and uncertainty have not been good for the lumber and building materials (LBM) industry. The uncertainty has led to risks of a different kind: slowing growth and rising inflation. Fortunately, the industry scored a win in March when Canadian lumber and panel products were deemed US-Mexico-Canada-Agreement-compliant. Up next, the countervailing and anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber. …Yet to come, the Section 232 National Security Investigation. …As the industry braces for new tariffs, here’s what dealers can learn from the other extreme cycles of the 21st century —the 2006 boom cycle, 2009 bust cycle (Great Recession), and the 2021 COVID-19 cycle. …Risk management: To mitigate the risk of over-paying or experiencing a disruption in supply, expand your supply base. It pays to diversify.

Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing declined year-over-year in the first quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released by the NAHB. The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 44, down three points year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 82, down one point year-over-year. …The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise and subsidized) and one in the built-for-sale (or condominium) market. The component measuring garden/low-rise dipped one point to 54, the component measuring mid/high-rise units fell eight points to 28, the component measuring subsidized units held even at 50 and the component measuring built-for-sale units posted a one-point decline to 38.

Mortgage loan applications saw little change in April, as refinancing activity decreased. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume based on the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, experienced a 0.4% month-over month increase on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. However, year-over-year, the index is up 29.3% compared to April 2024. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed 10 basis points in April, reaching 6.8%, according to the MBA survey. As rates edged higher, purchase activity posted a modest 1.9% month-over-month gain (SA), while the Refinance Index declined by 1.4% (SA). Compared to a year ago, mortgage rates are down 37 bps, and thus, purchase applications are higher by 11.2%, while refinance activity has jumped 62.0%.

In related news: US Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises

The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady later on Wednesday amid fears that President Trump’s tariffs will rekindle inflation and slow economic growth. The decision to keep the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate between 4.25% and 4.5% is widely expected by financial markets despite the president’s repeated demands for the Fed to lower interest rates. …Trade tensions have led to a sharp drop in consumer confidence. But they’ve yet to put much of a dent in the job market. …So long as tariffs threaten to put upward pressure on prices, the Fed will be inclined to keep interest rates relatively high, in an effort to prevent inflation from spiking again. That calculation could change, however, if the job market softens and unemployment starts to climb. Ordinarily, that would push the central bank toward lowering interest rates.

Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first quarter by 0.3%, with imported goods being a large contributor to the decline as the suppliers prepared for President Trump’s tariff proposals once he took office. NAHB estimates this should even out in the second quarter. Other economic data of note are inflation, which is still elevated but creeping downward, and the unemployment rate, which remains low but may edge up among economic uncertainty. …NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz hasn’t hit the panic button yet. And I still think that we don’t know what President Trump’s economy really is yet. It’s been policy by sledgehammer, and now they’re going to start putting the pieces back together.” NAHB Senior Officers and staff continue to actively engage with lawmakers on this and other policies, including a special BUILD-PAC Capital Club event this week featuring an interview with Sen. Tim Sheehy.

Tuesday marked the 100th day of President Trump’s second term in office and there are signs of stress and jitters in the US construction industry, with rising prices, falling confidence, and a sharp uptick in abandoned projects. “Lumber and metals prices shot up in March, while contractors’ inboxes are bulging with ‘Dear Valued Customer’ letters announcing further increases for many products,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist at AGC. “Rapid-fire changes in tariffs threaten to drive prices higher for many essential construction goods,” he added. The price of materials and services used in nonresidential construction rose 0.4% in March, the third monthly increase in a row, AGC said. It was the first time since September 2023 that input prices had risen for three consecutive months, and comes after more than a year of stable or falling prices, Simonson said. …Within the 0.4% hike, lumber and plywood rose 2.7%.

Housing’s share of the economy grew to 16.4% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate of GDP produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the highest reading since the third quarter of 2022 and is up 0.2 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2024. The more cyclical home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment (RFI) – was 4.1% of GDP, up from 4.0% in the previous quarter. The second component – housing services – was 12.3% of GDP, up from 12.2% in the previous quarter. The graph below stacks the nominal shares for housing services and RFI, resulting in housing’s total share of the economy. …In the first quarter, RFI added 5 basis points to the headline GDP growth rate, marking the second straight quarter of positive contributions.

To kick off National Home Remodeling Month in May, which promotes the benefits of hiring a professional remodeler, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has highlighted recent data from the American Community Survey (ACS) that shows almost half of the owner-occupied homes in the U.S. were built before 1980 and have a median age of 41 years. The aging housing stock, combined with insufficient new home inventory, indicates the remodeling market is poised for future growth. The U.S. owner-occupied housing stock has aged rapidly, particularly since the Great Recession, as ACS data analyzed by NAHB shows that around 48% of the housing stock dates back to the 1980s and earlier. The median age of owner-occupied homes climbed to 41 years in 2023, up from 31 years in 2005.

Consistent with soft sentiment data, the count of job openings for the overall economy and construction fell in March as employers slowed hiring plans amid a broader economic slowdown, per the March Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The number of open jobs for the overall economy declined from 7.48 million in February to 7.19 million in March. This is notably smaller than the 8.09 million estimate reported a year ago and reflects a softened aggregate labor market. Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below 8 million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve move on interest rate reductions. With estimates remaining below 8 million for national job openings, the Fed, in theory, should be able to cut further despite a recent pause. However, tariff proposals may keep the Fed on pause in the coming quarters.

The US economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 on an import surge at the start of President Trump’s second term in office as he wages a potentially costly trade war. Gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, according to a Commerce Department report adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation. This was the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 of 2022. Economists had been looking for a gain of 0.4% after GDP rose by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, over the past day or so some Wall Street economists changed their outlook to negative growth, largely because of an unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to get ahead of the Trump tariffs implemented in early April. …The more telling number for the future of the expansion was consumer spending, and it grew, but at a relatively weak pace,” said Robert Frick. 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 7.9 points in April to 86.0 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased 0.9 points to 133.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. …Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board said, “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. …In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”

Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch is hitting out at the Trump administration, criticizing the president for his tariff war that he said is having an adverse effect on the construction industry in his district. “Tariffs on 140 countries at the same time, treating Canada the same way we treat China was a terrible mistake,” “I would have hoped for a balanced scheme. …”With the market going down, with the strength of the dollar receding, I think he’s a bit worried Treasury bills are not as desirable,” Lynch said. …”I come out of the construction industry, so we’ve got a bunch of projects in my district that are ready to go. The community’s on board, and yet the developers are afraid to put a shovel in the ground. “Is it going to cost 25% more with the tariffs on Canada, all of our lumber, steel, aluminum, aggregate concrete, all of that?

The homeownership rate declined to 65.1% in the first quarter of 2024, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2020, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). Amid elevated mortgage interest rates and tight housing supply, housing affordability is at a multidecade low. Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004, the homeownership rate is 4.1 percentage points lower and remains below the 25-year average rate of 66.3%. Homeownership rates declined across nearly all age groups over the past year, except those aged 65 and older. Among younger households, the homeownership rate for those under 35 rose slightly to 36.6% in the first quarter of 2024. However, it is still hovering at the lowest rate in the last 6 years. This age group, particularly sensitive to mortgage rates and the inventory of entry-level homes, saw the largest decline among all age categories.

Tariffs on key home-building materials — particularly softwood lumber — could significantly increase the cost of new homes in the United States. With the country already facing a housing shortage and widespread affordability challenges for many, new tariffs could price out over 100,000 more prospective home buyers. Home builders reported in April 2025 that existing tariffs had already increased costs by $10,900 per home, according to the NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). …The Trump administration has opened an investigation into whether imports of lumber and related products threaten U.S. national security — an inquiry that could result in tariffs. New duties on Canadian softwood lumber, the primary source of U.S. imports, could lead home construction costs to surge. …More than 70% of lime and gypsum, critical for drywall and plaster, are imported from Mexico. The Trump administration has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican goods.

US consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March. While the April decline in current conditions was modest, the expectations index plummeted with drop-offs in personal finances as well as business conditions. Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession. While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation. Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak. Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.

The need for affordable housing in the United States has never been greater. …Research from federal mortgage backer Freddie Mac estimates that the U.S. is short 3.7 million housing units relative to current market needs, while the National Association of Realtors pegs the figure even higher at 5.5 million units. …Experts cite a variety of factors that contribute to difficulties adding housing stock. …While the national supply of housing has been lagging overall, some parts of the country have managed to add homes faster than others. States that have experienced the most housing growth in recent years are largely found in the Mountain West and Sun Belt regions, which tend to be less expensive than heavily developed coastal markets and have fewer regulations limiting construction. …Below is a complete breakdown of housing growth across nearly 800 U.S. counties (grouped by size) and all 50 states. 

WASHINGTON — Americans’ trust in President Trump to bolster the US economy appears to be faltering, with a new poll showing that many people fear the country is being steered into a recession and that the president’s broad and haphazardly enforced tariffs will cause prices to rise. Roughly half of US adults say that Trump’s trade policies will increase prices “a lot” and another 3 in 10 think prices could go up “somewhat”. …While skepticism about tariffs is increasing modestly, that doesn’t mean the public is automatically rejecting Trump or his approach to trade. …Not quite 100 days into Trump’s second term in the White House, people around the country are bracing for possible disruptions in how they spend, work and live. The US economy remains solid for the moment with moderating inflation and a healthy 4.2% unemployment rate, yet measures such as consumer confidence have dropped sharply.

A modest decline in mortgage rates and lean existing inventory helped boost new home sales in March even as builders and consumers contend with uncertain market conditions. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in March increased 7.4% to a 724,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a revised January number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in March was up 6.0% compared to a year earlier. The March new home sales data shows that demand continues to be present in the market, provided affordability conditions permit a purchase. An increase in economic certainty would be a big boost to future sales conditions. Lower mortgage interest rates helped boost the pace of new home sales in March.

Houzz released the 2025 U.S. Houzz & Home Study, a report surveying over 22,000 US homeowners about remodeling, building and decorating activity. The study found 54% of homeowners renovated their homes in 2024 at a median spend of $20,000. Overall median spend decreased from its peak of $24,000 in 2023 and remains above the $18,000 spent in 2018. …“The softening in renovation spend reflects the impact of elevated borrowing costs and the rising prices for everyday goods and services,” says Marine Sargsyan, Houzz economist. “What stands out, however, is homeowners’ ongoing demand and consistent investment in sizable kitchen and bathroom upgrades. Notable growth in spend on smaller spaces signals that even amid economic pressures, homeowners are prioritizing meaningful improvements no matter the size of the home.” …53% of renovating homeowners updated their outdoor spaces in 2024, completing around two outdoor projects on average. … Homeowners are also investing in decks, sheds and workshops (8%) and gazebos and pergolas (7%). 

A global trade war is underway, causing significant economic and financial market disruptions. …For financial markets, the 10-year Treasury rate is settling at near 4.5%, as an additional risk premium for US government debt is imposed by investors. The rate has also increased due to expectations for higher inflation in 2025. Separately, duties on Canadian lumber are set to rise from 14.5% to 34.5% later this year. Treasury rates are worth watching in the weeks ahead. There remains a liquidity risk if a significant portfolio reshuffling occurs. Such liquidity risks can produce significant financial and economic distress. However, the bond market appears orderly, for the time being. …Although the negotiations may yield growth opportunities for US energy firms and other exporters, most forecasters are now saying a recession is more likely than not for 2025. NAHB’s forecast for GDP growth in 2025 has been revised lower to near 1%.

In a previous post, NAHB analyzed where builders and remodelers purchased products, regardless of who ultimately purchases them (themselves or subcontractors). In this post, the question shifts to who is most often responsible for the choice of particular products. When averaging over all 24 building product categories, 60% of builders report they had the most influence on product selection compared to 49% of remodelers. Still, these shares are ranked the highest within their respective sector. Both builders and remodelers reported similar shares of influence for subcontractors, dealers & suppliers, and architects. However, when it comes to the greatest influencer being the customer, this is more prevalent among remodelers (26%) than among builders (16%).

Growing economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns and elevated building material costs kept builder sentiment in negative territory in April, despite a modest bump in confidence due to a slight retreat in mortgage interest rates. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 40 in April, edging up one point from March, according to the NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. “The recent dip in mortgage rates may have pushed some buyers off the fence in March, helping builders with sales activity,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “At the same time, builders have expressed growing uncertainty over market conditions as tariffs have increased price volatility for building materials.” …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose two points to 45. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers increased one point to 25 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell 4 points to 43.

WASHINGTON, DC – Following national home price growth of 5.8% in 2024, a panel of more than 100 housing experts forecasts home price growth to average 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, according to the Q1 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics. The panel’s latest estimates of national home price growth represent revisions from last quarter’s expectations of 3.8% for 2025 and 3.6% for 2026, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI).