US homebuilder confidence remains low as permits slide, but expectation of an interest rate cut boosts future sales expectations. In other Business news: the future of Domtar’s Glenwood, Arkansas sawmill is in question; and UPM extends its pulp mill closures in Finland. Meanwhile: AF&PA joins trade-group opposition to proposed US rail merger; and the American Journal of Transportation opines on Trump’s tariff war impact on trade, trucking and home ownership.
In Forestry/Wildfire news: Canada’s growing Wildland Urban Interface increases fire danger; what to know about the newly created US Wildland Fire Service; and wildfires continue to rage in Oregon’s Lane County; as fire bans are lifted for northern Vancouver Island. Meanwhile: Plilomath, Oregon adapts with mass timber; the Canadian Wood Council features Toronto’s Limberlost Place; and the BC Institute of Technology advances careers in the lumber and sawmill sector.
Finally, a US Lumber Coalition commentary claims most of lumber duties paid by Canadian mills will go into the US Treasury.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog News Editor
When the Trump administration more than doubled import fees on Canadian softwood lumber earlier this year, the goal was to support domestic prices and boost US production. Instead, prices have plunged, and mills on both sides of the border are scaling back. A benchmark for the commodity mostly used in construction has plunged 18% since an August peak to the lowest in seven months, driven by sluggish homebuilding activity and a glut of inventory. The drop shows how protectionist measures aren’t always enough to protect domestic industries from broader market dynamics at a time when high interest rates and elevated costs are squeezing consumers and weighing on their confidence, dampening demand for new homes. …“The US producers were looking for more of a price bump from the duties, and they didn’t get one,” said Brooks Mendell, at Forisk Consulting. “The interpretation of that is, well, the demand isn’t there.” 
Major concerns are being expressed on both sides of the border regarding the higher US duties on Canada’s softwood lumber. …The current 35.19% duty, along with any steeper tariff, is detrimental to US homebuilders and homebuyers longer term, warns Rose Quint, of NAHB Survey Research. Higher mortgage rates of 6% to 7% since 2022 have already weakened housing demand and caused lumber prices to edge downwards. The real effect of tariffs might be delayed by wholesalers having stocked up building materials earlier in the year to avoid higher tariffs “Years of building above and beyond our traditional baseline is required to make up the 1.5 million deficit that we have in new housing units,” Quint adds. …Affordability challenges already existed and will be further worsened by the higher costs. …The overriding hope among the Canadian producers and American homebuilders is that a suitable agreement will be reached between the US and Canada. 
Higher duty rate and possible additional tariffs have transportation modes on edge. The softwood lumber dispute threatens to have repercussions on various transportation modes, particularly trucking. “Our members are saying their business is still okay, even with the softer rates due to mill overcapacity, but they’re worried that if anyone pushes on this wall with more tariffs, there’s nothing to hold it up,” says Dave Earle, the BC Trucking Association’s CEO. …Trucking has already been dealing with the overcapacity that was put in place for the greater demands for deliveries for most everything during the pandemic but has not subsided. …In terms of rail services, CPKC has seen its forest product shipments rise this year to date based on revenue ton miles. …At the Port of Vancouver in British Columbia, the potential to export more lumber is significant with approximately half of last year’s containers leaving the port empty. 
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.9% in August, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday, the final piece of economic data to be released before the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision. The higher rate was largely expected. Gas prices, which dropped at a rate of more than 16% in July, were still declining in August — but at a slower pace than they had previously, contributing to the upward tick in the overall inflation rate. …With gas stripped away from the overall inflation rate, the numbers mostly ticked down in August. Economists anticipate that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points during its Wednesday meeting — which would mark the bank’s first cut since March. “This report was mostly a low-drama affair,” wrote Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO, in a note to clients. The pace of price growth “won’t cause the Bank of Canada much stress,” Porter wrote.
A “normal” annual softwood lumber price cycle sees prices dropping from Labour Day until early in the new year when buying starts again for the spring construction season. We are also expecting three interest rate cuts this year from the US Federal Reserve. With lower mortgage rates expected, will we see increasing demand for lumber? …The short term outlook for lumber prices continues to see weakness with price projections as low as US$450 per thousand board feet until the spring construction season. Looking into 2026 and 2027, prices are expected to recover to the mid-US$500 to low-US$600 per thousand board feet range. Ongoing duties, the upcoming court rulings on tariffs and the protracted housing shortage will all impact the price of lumber over the next two years. [to access the full story, a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its 
Falling lumber prices are sounding an alarm on Wall Street about potential problems on Main Street. Wood markets have been whipsawed of late by trade uncertainty and a deteriorating housing market. Futures have dropped 23% since hitting a three-year high at the beginning of August and ended Friday at $535 per thousand board feet. The price drop might have been greater—but two of North America’s biggest sawyers said last week that they would curtail output, slowing the decline. Crashing wood prices are troubling because they have been a reliable leading indicator on the direction of the housing market as well as broader economic activity. …Analysts and traders say there will have to be further cuts to ease the glut of wood. That might not be a problem, given how higher duties have pushed up Canadian sawmills’ break-even prices while demand wanes. “We anticipate further closures or curtailments,” said Truist Securities analyst Michael Roxland. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is require]
Canada’s new homes market is booming with near record housing starts — with one exception, Ontario. 
Lumber futures fell again Wednesday, dropping to their lowest prices since last autumn. …Futures for September delivery shed $6 or about 1.1%, to end at $524 per thousand board feet. Futures have now declined 18 of the past 22 trading sessions. The selloff—about 25% over the past month—is reminiscent of the wild trading in lumber during the Covid-19 pandemic [but this time] …the continuing gyrations have been driven by trade policy. Lumber buyers stocked up ahead of a big increase in the duties levied on Canadian imports. …President Trump’s threats for additional tariffs on imported wood added incentive to hoard lumber. …The $54 difference in price between lumber futures for delivery this month and those for November in midday trading was well above the cost of warehousing wood for two months and a sign that traders’ demand outlook is bleak, Stinson Dean said. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
Lumber prices, which shed more than 20% in August, have continued to fall to start September, hitting their lowest price this year thanks to a glut of wood that was piled up ahead of a big increase in duties on Canadian imports. “There has clearly been a speculative inventory accumulation at every level from mills to single location lumber dealers,” said Matt Layman, who publishes Layman’s Lumber Guide “For the first time in my 40-plus year career there is indeed a wall of wood that must be liquidated.” As with many raw materials, the lumber market has been whipsawed by President Trump’s tariff threats. The White House is studying tariffs on imported lumber in the name of national security. …Any lumber tariff will come on top of duties on Canadian softwood lumber that rose to about 35% for most producers, from 15% last year. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
Lumber futures fell to $550 per thousand board feet in September, the lowest in nearly four months, amid softer demand for new home building and ample supply. US building permits fell 2.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.362 million, the lowest since June 2020. Although the market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, rates are expected to remain restrictive, and high inflation expectations are expected to support long-maturity yields, which dictate mortgage costs. Seasonal slowdown in construction is set to magnify the drop in housing construction. On the supply side, Canadian mills continue to push large volumes of surplus lumber into the US market, far exceeding actual demand and creating an oversupply situation. Additionally, ongoing tariff issues between the US and Canada add further uncertainty, as potential changes in trade policy could significantly affect US lumber prices.›
Lumber futures have come under strain after the initial tariff-driven upswing has fizzled out and the cracks in the housing market are beginning to show… retreating from an early August high of ~$695 per thousand board feet to about $560, a decline of nearly 19.5%, making it just shy of the 20% mark that would push it into a technical bear market. Lumber futures saw a surge driven by tariffs and optimism over lower interest rates, which pushed prices to their highest levels in more than three years. However, the enthusiasm soon faded away, as recent housing data disappointed, and builders scaled back due to higher input costs, weaker demand and looming affordability challenges. Housing affordability remains stretched even with potential rate cuts, requiring better wage growth or increased supply for meaningful improvement, according to Rafe Jadrosich, Senior US Homebuilders and Building Products analyst.
Single-family housing permits slipped for the seventh month in a row, highlighting affordability headwinds and weak demand. While multifamily permits ticked up, the sector’s volatility leaves the outlook uncertain. The split underscores a housing market still under strain, with single-family softness weighing on broader growth prospects. Over the first seven months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 565,208. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 5.7% over the July 2024 level of 599,308. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 286,836. This is 2.6% higher compared to the July 2024 level of 279,618.
Housing starts in the US fell last month to the lowest since May, as bloated home inventory slowed builders’ appetites to boost production. New residential construction decreased 8.5% last month to an annualized rate of 1.31 million homes, government data released Wednesday showed. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economist was for 1.37 million starts. Meantime, starts of one-family homes fell 7% to an annualized 890,000, the lowest in more than a year. Multifamily construction, which has helped lift overall construction in recent months, also declined, falling nearly 12% to a three-month low. …Traders expect the Federal Reserve to trim interest rates multiple times this year, starting on Wednesday. And separate data out Wednesday showed mortgage rates fell last week to the lowest level in nearly a year, spurring a surge in refinancing.
Construction spending in the United States reached $1,232.7 billion during the first seven months of 2025, a 2.2% decrease from $1,259.9 billion in the same period of 2024. Residential construction accounted for $524.7 billion, down 4.0%, while nonresidential construction declined 0.8% to $707.9 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Private construction dropped 3.8% year-to-date to $946.5 billion. …Public construction increased 3.8% to $286.2 billion over the same period. …For the month of July 2025, construction spending was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, down 0.1% from June and 2.8% below July 2024. Private sector construction decreased 0.2% from the previous month, while public construction rose 0.3%.
Despite the ongoing decline in construction activity in Russia, domestic demand for lumber increased in July. The volume of apparent lumber consumption in the country rose by 16% in July compared to the same period last year, while construction decreased by 14%. Prices for key lumber categories in July remained at the previous month’s level. …On export markets, Russian exporters faced mixed dynamics. In July, the volume of lumber exports from Russia increased by 18% compared to June, but shipments were 13% lower than a year earlier. China remains a key destination for Russian suppliers, but Russian exporters are facing growing competition from Belarusian companies offering lower prices. The situation for Russian exporters is further complicated by a general decrease in China’s lumber purchases due to the ongoing crisis in its construction sector. Lumber exports from Russia to Japan remain weak: shipment volumes dropped by 19% year-over-year.