Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Pulp Markets Outlook: Global Tissue Growth to Ease, Printing Decline Slows

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

At International Pulp Week, Mathieu Wener, Senior Economist at Numera Analytics, provided a detailed overview of current trends in key end-use markets for pulp, with a particular focus on tissue and printing and writing papers. Drawing on recent data and modelling, he examined how these sectors have evolved post-pandemic, what is driving demand patterns today, and what may lie ahead. Wener began with tissue markets, where profitability has remained strong despite considerable cost pressures in recent years. “Producers passed through rising costs since 2022,” he noted, showing how eurozone parent roll and pulp prices had shifted over that period. Although price differentials between pulp and tissue had narrowed, margins remained healthy.” …Wener underscored the importance of tracking both macroeconomic forces and demographic trends in shaping pulp demand. For tissue, slowing population growth and cautious consumer behaviour would temper growth expectations. For printing and writing papers, the secular decline would continue, but at a somewhat more stable pace.

Read More

Global Pulp Outlook: Short-Term Recovery, Structural Divergence Ahead

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

The final presenter at International Pulp Week, Emanuele Bona, VP of Europe for the Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC), provided a comprehensive update on global market pulp demand trends, with a particular focus on the rebound underway in 2025 and the longer-term outlook for key markets and product segments. Bona began by noting that 2024 had been a weak year for market pulp demand, with global chemical market pulp demand falling by 0.9 percent. However, the first months of 2025 showed a marked improvement. “In 2025, after four months, demand is up almost one million tonnes,” he reported. Both softwood and hardwood pulp segments contributed to this recovery. …Looking ahead, Bona projected that global market pulp demand would return to growth but at a more moderate pace. “Growth to average 1.5 percent through 2029,” he said. The long-term trend for softwood pulp was expected to remain flat at best, while hardwood demand growth was projected to slow despite ongoing substitution trends.

Read More

Straight talk on tariffs: Brass tacks guidance amid ongoing uncertainty

By Neil Agarwal, Frisco Woodline CEO
The HBS Dealer
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Uncertainty regarding tariffs continues to challenge companies across industries. It’s a common theme in every conversation I’ve had with fellow business owners lately: How do we plan, price or grow when the rules are constantly shifting? In our case, the lumber industry got a temporary break—framing lumber from Canada, which makes up over 30% of the US market, was exempt from the original tariffs. That’s good news for now, especially for residential construction. But there’s still no clarity on imports from other key countries like Brazil and China, where tariffs remain in full effect. That could have a serious impact on specialty products like Ipe and hardwood veneers. Other building materials—fasteners, finishes, flooring, and more—are also caught in the middle. …That cost will be passed on to the end user. Businesses like ours don’t have the luxury of absorbing increased costs indefinitely. If we did, we’d be out of business.

Read More

LBM Dealers comment on how lumber and other materials sold will be impacted by tariffs

The LBM Journal
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

There has been a lot of news recently on higher tariffs between the U.S. and its trading partners, including Canada and Mexico. One concern that is top of mind for many LBM dealers is how these new tariffs will affect lumber and other materials sold at yards and stores across the country. How concerned should I be and what action, if any, can I take to protect my business? Responses from lumberyards, full-line building material dealers, and specialty dealers/distributors:

  • Stock up heavy now and ride the wave. Things will straighten up.
  • Keep a sharp eye on inventory levels and don’t make any rash moves. Steady as she goes!
  • When the tariff goes on, adjust your prices that same day.
  • Don’t quote too far in the future. Quote only subject to tariffs.
  • Communicate with customers and suppliers regularly. Keep things transparent when possible.

Read More

Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2.75%

The Bank of Canada
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. Since the April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the US have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the outcomes of these negotiations are highly uncertain, tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high. While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs. …In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%. …CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April. …Excluding taxes, inflation rose 2.3% in April.

Read More

US growth forecast cut sharply by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as Trump tariffs sour global outlook

By Sophie Kiderlin
CNBC News
June 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

Economic growth forecasts for the US and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OEDC) as President Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations. The US growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025. The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade. Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico”. “Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026. It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026. …The OECD adjusted its inflation forecast, saying “higher trade costs will also push up inflation.”

Related news in the Financial Post: Canada to take brunt of one of the worst slowdowns since the pandemic, warns OECD

Read More

Fight over lumber tariffs could reshape future of US home building

By Aislinn Murphy
Fox Business News
June 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber is in the spotlight as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the US Lumber Coalition disagree over what’s behind the U.S. housing market slump. The NAHB has pointed to tariff uncertainty and lumber prices as being partly responsible. The US’s current anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duty on imported Canadian softwood lumber stands at 14.5%. It could potentially climb later in the year to nearly 35%. “I share President Trump’s desire to create fair and balanced trade across our borders, certainly would bring back as much production as we can,” NAHB CEO Jim Tobin said. “But until we do that, and it will take years and millions of dollars of investment, we need to make sure that we have a reliable, affordable source of lumber.” …The US Lumber Coalition has also been critical of Canada, saying that “ongoing unfair trade practices” by its lumber industry have been “extremely harmful to US lumber producers.”

Read More

If a Tree Falls in the Forest: Softwood Lumber Trade

By Sean Steuart, Kasia Trzaski Kopytek, Chris Krueger
TD Securities
June 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

For Canadian lumber producers, US market access restrictions are a long-term reality. We expect increasing duty rates plus an incremental tariff will be applied to Canadian lumber imports by the third quarter of 2025 (Q3/25). …Short-term hurdles are notable (demand headwinds, rising US duties, and expected incremental tariffs) but for some companies, we believe that recent valuation contractions discount excessive risk. …A mutual lumber trade agreement between Canada and the US is not expected in the near- to medium-term but is more likely in five years. …We include an incremental US 25% tariff applied to Canadian lumber imports (Section 232 investigation) starting Q3/25 in addition to cumulative countervailing duties (CVD)/anti-dumping duties (ADD) collection rates expected to rise to almost 35% for most sawmills by mid-Q3/25. For the average Canadian sawmill, we estimate that Canadian lumber prices would need to rise 30% from current levels to pass on the increase to duty deposit rates plus the incremental tariff to customers.

Read More

RBC forecasts further declines in lumber and OSB prices

Investing.com
June 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

On Monday, RBC analysts reported a decrease in the prices of lumber and oriented strand board (OSB) over the past week. The Framing Lumber Composite price fell by $4 to $438, while the OSB Composite price dropped by $7 to $282, according to Random Lengths data. These price movements are particularly relevant for building materials companies like AZEK, a significant player with a $7.17 billion market capitalization and strong 37.22% gross margins. RBC Elements, in collaboration with its in-house data science team, developed a multi-variable time series model to project future price movements. This model estimates that the Framing Lumber Composite will decrease by an additional $1 to $437 in the coming week. Similarly, the OSB Composite is forecasted to decline by $5 to $277 next week, based on the same predictive model. These projections are part of RBC’s ongoing analysis of the paper, packaging, and forest product sectors.

Read More

Going No Where in 2025-Q2, But Higher Prices Coming in Q3 from Duties (and Maybe Tariffs)

By Russ Taylor
Russ Taylor Global
June 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

US market conditions have been lackluster since the Trump tariffs on Canadian lumber were postponed for the second time in early April. …The proposed 25% tariffs were the catalyst for SPF prices rising in the first two months of 2025. …Today, this puts BC Interior SPF mills back near break-even levels at current lumber prices and 14.4% duties with other Canadian regions looking to be marginally profitable. With tariffs in suspension mode, the US market fundamentals have now been exposed – the market is weak and remain weak – and there is too much supply – again! ….The silliness of the Trump administration’s irrational rhetoric as well as biased trade policies will only result in raising all lumber prices to the US home builder, the renovation contractor, and the consumer. How much of the tariffs (or Canadian duties) are passed on to the consumer is the only wild card, but it will likely be the majority.

Read More

What temporary tariff halts and new housing hopes mean for clients

By Phil Porado
Canadian Underwriter
May 29, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

A pause on some tariffs creates a window for Canadian companies to re-examine their risk profiles and work with brokers to secure needed coverage. Both Bay Street and Wall Street are cheering the ruling from the US Court of International Trade that, at least temporarily, tamps down the 10% tariffs the White House imposed on most countries, and drug-related emergency orders setting 25% tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico. …Some companies may use tariff lulls to stock up on certain key materials. …Construction companies, for example, often import flooring products from the US, even though Canadian builders have good access to lumber. For them, stockpiling those materials reduces the economic impacts of both US tariffs and Canadian retaliatory tariffs. …Additional optimism arrived via King Charles III’s Speech from the Throne this week. The document opening Canada’s parliament commits to major economic initiatives, including large-scale increases in housing construction.

Read More

Canada’s Inflation rate drops to 1.7% in April, driven by lower energy prices after carbon tax removal

By Jenna Benchetrit
CBC News
May 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s inflation rate eased to 1.7% in April, driven by a drop in prices after the federal government removed the consumer carbon tax, according to Statistics Canada. The slowdown came after the inflation rate hit 2.3% in March. Lower crude oil prices were also a factor in the decline, the data agency said. Despite the decline in headline inflation, core inflation measures all rose in April, some above three per cent — well above the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target rate. The central bank watches those numbers closely because they strip out volatile sectors and don’t factor in one-offs like the removal of the carbon tax. …The central bank is set to make its next interest rate decision on June 4. Porter still expects that the Bank of Canada will cut, given the outlook for weak economic growth in 2025, but said the bank might need more time to see how inflation plays out.

Read More

Can US federal land offset imported Canadian forest products?

By Austin Lamica
RISI Fastmarkets
May 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Tariff discussions about reducing US dependence on foreign goods became a focus for the second Trump administration. …However, the US forest products industry’s reliance on Canadian wood raises questions about eliminating Canadian wood imports entirely. This piece is the second in a two-part series by the Fastmarkets team. Part one of this series explored converting capacity to replace finished products sourced from Canada.  …Theoretically, US federal lands currently have ample timber supplies to offset the volume of softwood lumber imported from Canada. However, increasing federal timber harvests upwards of 450% may be challenging, as many headwinds, aside from those related to lumber production capacity, may limit the government’s ability to ramp up timber production to this level. Foremost is the contraction of forest area available for harvest due to environmental regulation and wildfires. Trump’s executive order and proposed NWFP amendments aim to address these issues, but this will likely not happen overnight.

Read More

Multi-family starts boost Canada, U.S. new home starts

By Joel Schlesinger
The Calgary Herald
May 29, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

New homes development got a shot in the arm this spring with April starts rising in Canada and the United States. Recent reports from TD Economics examined new home data in both markets, finding month-over-month rises in starts for April. In Canada, starts jumped 30 per cent month over month, marking the largest rise since June 2023. Driving growth was the multi-family family segment that saw starts rise 34 per cent, whereas single-family detached home starts gained six per cent from March. …TD noted the “bounce-back” in activity was not unsurprising given levels were so low to start the year. What’s more, housing starts could “be softening,” amid higher construction costs and lower immigration, it cautioned. In the U.S., activity was less robust by percentage growth. Starts there increased less than two per cent month over month.

Read More

Weyerhaeuser, Firefighter Behavioral Health Alliance Partner for Fourth Year to Provide Mental Health Resources for Wildland Firefighters

Yahoo Finance
May 28, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada West, US West

Weyerhaeuser Company and Firefighter Behavioral Health Alliance (FBHA) today announced an extension of their Fighting Fires Together campaign, a partnership that provides specialized mental health support for wildland firefighters and their families across the Pacific Northwest. Fighting Fires Together, now in its fourth year, addresses the often-overlooked mental health impacts of wildland firefighting in isolated, hazardous and highly stressful conditions. Through a free online resource hub, first responders can find specially designed content, including videos about Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, depression, anxiety and suicide prevention, along with mental health tips, educational articles and contacts for occupationally aware support groups and counselors in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Weyerhaeuser’s support for wildland firefighting efforts in the Pacific Northwest began in the aftermath of the Yacolt Burn in 1902, when the company began advocating for Washington’s first forest fire legislation and the funding of community fire prevention education and patrols. 

Read More

BC housing minister ready to work with feds if ‘serious dollars on the table’

By Ish Sharma
Business in Vancouver
May 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Ravi Kahlon

BC Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon touched on a wide range of development and housing issues during an address to the Urban Development Institute, including infrastructure funding, planning standardization and housing targets. Kahlon said that a dialogue is needed around infrastructure funding to address BC’s challenges around housing supply and affordability. …Kahlon also took time to address the Housing Supply Act, which has stirred controversy due to province’s ability to set housing targets that municipalities must meet based on their population and growth projections. …Kahlon’s UDI appearance comes as B.C. municipalities are required to update their official community plans and zoning bylaws by year’s end to include 20 years of housing needs. The OCPs will require updates every five years. The City of Vancouver will have its first ever city-wide official development plan by June 2026.

Read More

Atlas Engineered Products Reports First Quarter 2025 Financial and Operating Results, Including YoY Revenue Increase of 21%

Atlas Engineered Products
May 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Nanaimo, BC Atlas Engineered Products is pleased to announce its financial and operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2025. All amounts are presented in Canadian dollars. 

  • Revenue of $11M, representing an increase of 21% year-over-year
  • Wall Panel revenue increased by 42% year-over-year
  • Engineered Wood Products revenue increased by 30% year-over-year
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $586,666, representing an increase of 137% year-over-year

Hadi Abassi, President and CEO of AEP, commented: “Despite the housing start statistics and convoluted political and economic climates, the Company delivered a 21% increase in revenue over last year and worked diligently to drive organic growth in wall panels and engineered wood products, in addition to increasing production on roof trusses. I am encouraged by the start of 2025 to continue our organic growth initiatives across Canada and strategic acquisitions that will further strengthen our geographical footprint.”

Read More

Ontario government will spend more—for less housing

By Jake Fuss and Austin Thompson
The Fraser Institute
May 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

To state the obvious, in Ontario homebuilding is not keeping pace with population growth. This imbalance is driving sky-high home prices and rents, not only in the GTA but many other Ontario cities. What’s to be done? In the Ford government’s recent budget, “housing” appears not as a central theme but as one of several areas to receive “support” in light of Trump’s tariffs, mainly in the form of more money for local infrastructure. …And as part of this “housing” spending spree, the Ford government will continue to spend millions on the Community Infrastructure Fund—which targets smaller communities—and programs to encourage skilled trades, which could support housing development. … The Ontario government has already spent billions on its housing strategy, yet has not moved the needle on housing supply. Even Ford’s new budget with its massive housing “support” includes an abysmal forecast for new home construction.

Read More

Bill Championed by NAHB Would Address Major Flood Mapping Issue in California, Nationwide

By Evan Loukadakis
The National Association of Home Builders
June 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Legislation that NAHB has been seeking for two years that would allow new housing developments to go forward in California and bring down insurance costs for home buyers and home owners was introduced in Congress. This legislation represents an important win. …The Keeping Homeownership Costs Down Act (H.R. 3800) would allow the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to resume processing certain floodplain map changes to allow new home building projects to advance and help ease affordability challenges. In May 2023, FEMA suspended processing of Letters of Map Revision (LOMR) and Conditional Letters of Map Revision (CLOMR) in dozens of California counties. The practical effect of this suspension is that it increases the ownership costs for tens of thousands of new housing units. …Although this mapping issue has primarily affected California, this legislation would ensure similar problems are not repeated in other states that have federally protected species that reside within floodplain areas.

Read More

US home prices to rise 3.5% this year but tariffs will hinder new construction: Reuters poll

By Sarupya Ganguly
Reuters
June 3, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

U.S. home prices will rise steadily over coming years on an expected further decline in mortgage rates, according to property experts in a Reuters survey who expressed a near-unanimous view President Donald Trump’s tariffs would hinder affordable home construction. The same analysts had said three months ago that affordability and turnover in the market would improve, an upbeat outlook hinging on expectations the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates after staying on the sidelines all year. That optimism has since been tempered with Congress passing a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill estimated to add roughly $3.3 trillion by 2034 to an already-enormous $36.2 trillion debt pile, according to nonpartisan think tank the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Long-term bond yields have spiked higher, limiting scope for a decline in mortgage rates.

Read More

Environmental Protection Agency Commits to Reducing Regulatory Burdens for Home Builders

National Association of Home Builders
June 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

National Association of Home Buildiers (NAHB) Senior Officers sat down with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin on May 29 to discuss EPA’s deregulatory priorities benefiting the home-building industry. Zeldin told NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, First Vice Chairman Bill Owens and CEO Jim Tobin that he is committed to fulfilling President Trump’s directive to reduce federal regulatory burdens upon larger U.S. economy while also improving the federal permitting process across all EPA programs. As an example Zeldin pointed to his deregulatory announcement on March 12, 2025, identifying more than 30 federal environmental regulations finalized during the Biden administration that will be repealed or significantly revised. One of the Biden administration’s regulations directly impacting the home-building industry is the regulatory definition of “waters of the United States” (WOTUS) under the Clean Water Act. That same day, NAHB members were actively participating in an EPA public listening session in Salt Lake City on revising the current WOTUS regulatory definition.

Read More

Tariff Whiplash Has Already Hurt Housing Affordability

National Association of Home Builders
May 29, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The on-again, off-again nature of the tariffs and threats of higher levies have already had a negative effect on housing affordability by creating business uncertainty and disrupting building material supply chains. When asked about the impact of tariffs on their business in the NAHB’s April survey, 60% of builders reported their suppliers have already increased or announced increases of material prices due to tariffs. On average, respondents reported that suppliers increased their prices by 6.3% in response to announced, enacted or expected tariffs. …And in a May survey of builders, 78% reported difficulties pricing their homes recently due to uncertainty around material prices. NAHB estimates that approximately 7% of all goods used in new multifamily and single-family residential construction originated from a foreign nation in 2024. The cost of building materials has already risen by 41.6% in the five years since the pandemic, which is far higher than the rate of inflation (21.9%).

Read More

Hit by Trump trade wars, US economy falls 0.2% in first quarter, an upgrade from initial estimate

By Paul Wiseman
The Associated Press in the Canadian Press
May 29, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US economy shrank at a 0.2% annual pace from January through March, the first drop in three years, as President Trump’s trade wars disrupted business… a slight upgrade of its initial estimate. First-quarter growth was brought down by a surge in imports as companies in the United States hurried to bring in foreign goods before the president imposed massive import taxes. The January-March drop in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — reversed a 2.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2024. Imports grew at a 42.6% pace, fastest since third-quarter 2020, and shaved more than 5 percentage points off GDP growth. Consumer spending also slowed sharply. And federal government spending fell at a 4.6% annual pace, the biggest drop in three years. …From January through March, business investment surged 24.4%. An increase in inventories — as businesses stocked up ahead of the tariffs — added more than 2.6 percentage points to first-quarter GDP growth.

Read More

US home sales and building slump in the face of uncertainty

By Laurel Wamsley
National Public Radio
May 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Economic uncertainty has produced a double whammy for the housing market: sluggish home sales and plodding construction. Last month was the slowest April for existing home sales in 16 years — a sharp rebuke to hopes that this spring the housing market would recover after two very sleepy years. In a May survey of builder confidence, home builder sentiment dropped to a level last seen in November 2023. The problem, as ever, is the cost of housing: Home prices are out of reach for many who would like to buy. And the tariff drama under President Trump has both made it more expensive to build new homes and made the future more unpredictable for would-be homebuyers. The result is a country where builders want to build, and buyers want to buy — but the future is too much in doubt.

Read More

US Building Material Price Growth Minimal in April

By Jesse Wade
NAHB – Eye on Housing
May 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—fell 0.4% in April, following a (revised) increase of 0.8% in March. …The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 0.6% from April of last year. …Energy input prices were up 0.1% between March and April but were 17.6% lower than one year ago. Building material prices were down 0.3% between March and April but up 2.2% compared to one year ago. Energy costs have continued to fall on a year-over-year basis, as this marks the ninth consecutive month of lower input energy costs.

Read More

US Consumer Confidence Partially Rebounds in May

The Conference Board
May 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 12.3 points in May to 98.0 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose 4.8 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was May 19, 2025. About half of the responses were collected after the May 12 announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China. …Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, said “The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows. 

Read More

Volatile Spring Selling Season Continues in the US

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB – Eye on Housing
May 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Census estimate of new home sales posted an unexpected gain in April even as builders and consumers continue to deal with economic uncertainty, elevated interest rates and rising building material costs. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in April increased 10.9% to a 743,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised March number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in April was up 3.3% compared to a year earlier. The April new home sales figure may be revised as it runs counter to market commentary and the fact that builder sentiment moved markedly lower in May. A less volatile look at the market would be the year-to-date figures, which show new home sales are down 1.2% thus far in 2025 on elevated interest rates, ongoing policy uncertainty and rising construction costs.

Read More

US Existing Home Sales Fall in April

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB – Eye on Housing
May 22, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Despite the brief retreat in mortgage rates and increased supply, existing home sales dropped to 7-month low in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. …While existing home inventory improved, the market faces headwinds as mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6%. …Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in April. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.0% lower than a year ago. The first-time buyer share was 34% in April, up from 32% in March and 33% from a year ago. The existing home inventory level was 1.45 million units in April, up 9.0% from March, and up 20.8% from a year ago. …Homes stayed on the market for an average of 29 days in April, down from 36 days in March but up from 26 days in April 2024.

Read More

US Income Growth Helps Mute Existing Affordability Constraints

National Association of Home Builders
May 22, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Despite solid income gains and lower home prices, Americans still continue to face major housing affordability challenges, according to the latest data from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index (CHI). The CHI results from the first quarter of 2025 show that a family earning the nation’s median income of $104,200 needed 36% of its income to cover the mortgage payment on a median-priced new home. Low-income families, defined as those earning only 50% of median income, would have to spend 72% of their earnings. …“While affordability registered slight gains, the Cost of Housing Index clearly shows the need for policymakers to take action,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “Eliminating burdensome regulations, ending tariffs on Canadian lumber and other building materials, providing funding to promote careers in the skilled trades and expediting approvals for affordable projects will allow builders to construct more homes.”

Read More

Fannie Mae raises its GDP and housing outlook on lower mortgage rates

Fannie Mae News
May 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – Total single-family home sales are expected to close 2025 at 4.92 million units, with existing home sales accounting for 4.24 million of those units, according to the May 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Revisions to the home sales forecast were driven in part by the ESR Group’s lower expectations for mortgage rates, which it now forecasts to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively. The latest outlook also projects real gross domestic product growing at 0.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis. …We now expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 3.5 percent Q4/Q4 in 2025, unchanged from our April forecast. Core CPI is expected to rise 3.8 percent Q4/Q4 in 2025 (down from 3.9 percent previously) and 2.6 percent in 2026 (unchanged).

Read More

How lumber duties could worsen home affordability in the US

By DeLon Thornton
CNBC News
May 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Volatile lumber prices are once again rattling the U.S. housing market, squeezing builders and threatening to exacerbate an already dire affordability crisis. Softwood lumber prices in April surged 23% year-over-year, while futures rose sharply in early 2025 amid fears of increased U.S. duties and widespread sawmill closures across North America, according to the National Association of Home Builders. This has weighed heavily on major homebuilders such as Lennar, D.R. Horton and Toll Brothers, which have all seen their stocks slump this spring. …“The unpredictability of lumber prices adds serious complexity to planning and budgeting,” said Steve Martinez, of Idaho-based Tradewinds General Contracting. …Beyond homebuilding, higher lumber costs are hitting renovations, fencing and interiors. The US Forest Products annual market review found that U.S. lumber production inched up… but demand continues to outpace supply. Environmental regulations, aging forests and labor constraints compound the challenge.

Read More

US Single-Family Home Size Trending Higher

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
May 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

An expected impact of the virus crisis was a need for more residential space, as people used homes for more purposes including work. Home size correspondingly increased in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows. However, as interest rates increased in 2022 and 2023, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower. According to first quarter 2025 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area was 2,190 square feet, near the highest reading since mid-2023. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes registered at 2,408 square feet.

Read More

Five key factors in the outlook for the US housing market 2025

By Jennifer Coskren and Dustin Jalbert
RISI Fastmarkets
May 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Fastmarkets ‘Outlook for the US housing market 2025’ webinar unpacked the current challenges facing market participants. Key takeaways for the US housing market:

  • Falling builder confidence and construction trends – High mortgage rates and material costs are driving builder pessimism, despite strong demand. 
  • California wildfire rebuilding – The rebuilding process following California wildfires is anticipated to be exceptionally slow due to labor shortages, regulatory hurdles and insurance challenges.
  • Demographic shifts and the immigration surge – Demographics remain a near-term support for the housing market, but questions remain about the full impact of the recent surge in immigration. 
  • Mortgage rates and affordability challenges – A sharp rise in mortgage rates has contributed to affordability challenges and stasis in the existing market. 
  • The future of construction – New construction is projected to struggle through 2025 before seeing gradual improvement in 2026. 

Read More

Why Moody’s picked now to downgrade the United States

By Heather Long
The Washington Post
May 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The United States has officially lost its perfect credit rating. On Friday, Moody’s, for the first time in its history, downgraded U.S. government bonds from the gold star rating of “AAA” to “AA1,” the silver medal equivalent. This wasn’t a total surprise. S&P and Fitch had already lowered the U.S. rating, so this was Moody’s catching up to the crowd. But make no mistake: Moody’s didn’t just pick a random Friday in May to make this move. Moody’s wanted to send a message to Republicans in Congress: Rethink the tax bill. Or, better yet, don’t do it. …The Republicans’ bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the debt over the next decade. …Moody’s cited concern over how big the U.S. debt already is (more than $36 trillion) and how Congress has taken almost no action to stop the annual deficits that keep adding to that tab. [to access the full story a Washington Post subscription is required]

Read More

US Custom Home Building Trends Flat Year-Over Year

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
The NAHB Eye on Housing
May 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates flat year-over year growth for custom home builders. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices. There were 34,000 total custom building starts during the first quarter of 2025. This was unchanged relative to the first quarter of 2024. Over the last four quarters, custom housing starts totaled 181,000 homes, just more than a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (177,000). Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is approximately 18% of total single-family starts. 

Read More

US consumer sentiment inched down in May after four months of steep decline

The University of Michigan
May 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, inching down a scant 1.4 index points following four consecutive months of steep declines. Sentiment is now down almost 30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans. While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes. Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China. Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture.

Read More

Home sales and building slump in the face of economic uncertainty

By Laurel Wamsley
Oregon Public Broadcasting
May 28, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US West

Economic uncertainty has produced a double whammy for the housing market: sluggish home sales and plodding construction. Last month was the slowest April for existing home sales in 16 years — a sharp rebuke to hopes that this spring the housing market would recover after two very sleepy years. In a May survey of builder confidence conducted by Wells Fargo and the National Association of Home Builders, home builder sentiment dropped to a level last seen in November 2023. The problem, as ever, is the cost of housing: Home prices are out of reach for many who would like to buy. And the tariff drama under President Trump has both made it more expensive to build new homes and made the future more unpredictable for would-be homebuyers. The result is a country where builders want to build, and buyers want to buy — but the future is too much in doubt.

Read More

Exports of Southern Pine lumber fell 12% in Q1, 2025 compared to Q1, 2024

Southern Forest Products Association
May 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

Q1 2025 exports of Southern Pine lumber (treated and untreated) were 12% behind the same quarter in 2024 at 122 MMBF, but up 2% over the fourth quarter of 2024. On a monthly basis, Southern Pine lumber exports were down 20% in March over March 2024 but up 4.6% over February 2025. When looking at the report by dollar value, Southern Pine exports are down 7% to $50 million in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, but down 17% over the fourth quarter of 2024. Mexico led the way at $13.2 million, followed by the Dominican Republic at $10.4 million, and Canada at $4.3 million. The total global value in March hit a six-month high of $18 million. Treated lumber exports, meanwhile, were down 19% compared to the first quarter of 2024 at $28 million and down 6% over the fourth quarter of 2024.

Read More

Forestry companies shift focus to pine to meet demand for housing timber

ABC News Australia
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

An increasing demand for timber to meet Australia’s housing targets is set to drive a change in focus for one of Australia’s largest forestry regions. The Green Triangle, situated across the southern South Australia–Victorian border, has about 334,000 hectares of plantations, representing 17 per cent of Australia’s forestry industry. The region grows a mix of softwood timber, primarily used in domestic construction, and hardwood, which is often exported as wood chips and used in paper manufacturing. But as Australia looks to meet its goal of building 1.2 million new homes by 2029, investment in softwood is growing fast. “Both the state and the federal governments have incentives in place for industry and private investors to grow radiata pine,” University of Melbourne forest ecologist Rod Keenan said.

Read More

New Forests enters Vietnam with Tavico investment

New Forests
June 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

New Forests, a global investment manager of nature-based real assets and natural capital strategies, is today announcing its Tropical Asia Forest Fund 2 (TAFF2) has made its first investment in timber processing infrastructure in Vietnam by investing in the Tavico Group (Tavico), one of the country’s leading suppliers of solid wood lumber and logs. Tavico was founded in 2005 as a log trader and sawn timber mill with annual production capacity of 12,000m3 of lumber per annum, which is equivalent to approximately 800 medium sized houses. Tavico has established a 3,200-hectare FSC certified community forestry program with small holder farmers which provides employment and revenue sharing opportunities for local communities. The investment from TAFF2 will look to expand this program for smallholder farmers in Vietnam.

Read More