Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Builder sentiment remains subdued as rising material costs, elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continue to strain the housing market. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 35 in June, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the 14th straight month that sentiment has remained below 40, a streak not seen since 2011-2012 during the foreclosure crisis. Costly and inefficient regulatory policy is clearly impeding the ability of builders to increase the housing supply (according to a new NAHB study). …The latest HMI survey also revealed that 35% of builders cut prices in June, up from 32% in May. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 38 in June, the index measuring future sales held steady at 45 and the index charting traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged at 25.

This month, consumer sentiment ticked up about four index points, or 9%, with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices. This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party. Lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets. Overall, assessments and expectations of personal finances and business conditions all rose this month. Even with June’s early gains, however, views of the economy are still relatively dour. Sentiment is currently 13% below January 2026 and 19% below a year ago, as consumers remain focused on kitchen table issues. They feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation and worry that higher inflation could remain stubborn going forward, particularly in the short run. Interviews for this release were completed between May 19 and June 8.

Despite the leadership change at the Federal Reserve, the bond market is now projecting that it is more likely than not that the next monetary policy move by the central bank is a federal funds rate increase rather than a cut. The switch for market expectations from an easing cycle to tightening policy is due to macroeconomic conditions and risks, as well as fallout from current policy. …Higher interest rates have reduced housing activity. New single-family home sales declined 6.2% in April to a 622,000 annual rate and were down 11.3% from a year earlier, while inventory increased to 489,000 homes, equal to a 9.4 months’ supply. …Looking forward, 2026 looks to be the second year in a row of cooling single-family construction. Mortgage interest rates are likely to remain above 6%, with inflation expectations elevated due to higher oil and commodity prices tied to the Iran war and the lingering impacts associated with tariffs.

Wholesale prices of goods used in residential construction rose in May as energy prices continued to climb. In May, residential building material prices, excluding energy, rose at their highest yearly rate since January 2023, as prices were up 4.4% from a year ago and up 0.7% over the month. Meanwhile, prices for services rose 4.7% over the year, but were unchanged from the previous month. The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.1% in May, after rising 1.1% in April. Compared to a year ago, final demand prices were up 6.5%. …The price index for inputs to new residential construction rose 1.3% in May and was up 6.9% from last year. …Among input goods, the largest year-over-year increase was for No. 2 diesel fuel as prices were 105.9% higher than a year ago. …Softwood lumber prices were up 5.6% from a year ago in May while ready-mix concrete prices were up 1.7% and Gypsum building materials prices were down 1.1%.

Inflation accelerated to a new three-year high in May, driven by continued increases in energy costs from the Iran war. Energy costs drove more than 60% of the monthly increase. …On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.2% in May from a year ago, following a 3.8% increase last month, according to the BLS latest report. This was the largest annual increase since April 2023. …Outside of energy, other top contributors that rose in May included indexes for communication (+1.3%), airline fares (+2.7%), personal care (+1.0%) and recreation (+0.3%). …The index for shelter, which makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rose by 0.3% in May. The index for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) rose by 0.3%, while the index for rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.4% over the month. 

Existing home sales rose to a five-month high in May as more first-time buyers stepped back into the market. The share of first-time buyer reached 35% in May, the highest since June 2020. However, sales remained weak compared to historical norms, with still-tight inventory continued to push up home prices. Mortgage rates, though lower than a year ago, have increased more than 50 basis points since the Iran war began in late February and remain stuck around 6.5% in recent weeks. Energy shock has reaccelerated inflation, which has outpaced wage growth, further weighing on housing affordability. Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million in May, the highest since December 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). On a year-over-year basis, sales were 3.2% higher from a year ago. 

Annual inflation rose to a three-year-high of 4.2% in May, underscoring how elevated energy prices are rippling through the US economy, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices rose 0.5% on a monthly basis, driven higher by the US-Israeli war with Iran, the latest Consumer Price Index shows. The higher cost of energy accounted for 60% of the monthly increase. …“[4.2%] is still too hot for comfort, but the more important news was that the increase was concentrated mainly in energy, especially gasoline, rather than spreading widely across the economy,” economist Sung Won Sohn, at Loyola Marymount University. …May’s release is the first inflation report since Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the chair of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell. With inflation moving in the wrong direction and the labor market showing signs of resilience, economists expect the US central bank to keep rates unchanged — or even consider raising them.

A new study by the NAHB finds that regulations at the federal, state and local levels add $131,734 to the cost of a new single-family home—26.4% of the average sales price of $499,500 as of January 2026. Breaking down the total regulatory costs further, the study revealed that $84,939 of the final house price is the result of costs incurred by the builder due to regulation during the construction phase of the home while $46,795 is attributable to regulation during land development. “This study illustrates how excessive regulation is deepening the nation’s housing affordability crisis and making it harder for builders to deliver the affordable, attainable housing that our nation sorely needs,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a home builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio. “Policymakers should remove unnecessary and costly regulations that are pricing buyers out of the market and slowing construction of new homes and apartments.”

Despite rising inflation and ongoing economic uncertainty, the U.S. labor market remained resilient in May. Nonfarm payrolls increased for the third consecutive month, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Job gains were concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, while financial activities experienced a decline in payroll employment. Wage growth moderated in May, with average hourly earnings rising 3.4% year-over-year. This pace is 0.5 percentage points lower than a year ago. Importantly, wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases. …Job growth in early 2026 has improved notably compared with 2025 but has yet to fully match the pace observed in 2024. Through May, monthly payroll gains have averaged 114,000, compared with 10,000 per month in 2025 and 122,000 per month in 2024.

Mortgage rates continued to increase in May as inflation accelerated. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May, up 7 basis points  over April. Since the conflict in the Middle East began, the 30-year mortgage rate has increased by 36 basis points. The average 15-year rate averaged 5.76% in May, up 7 bps from April, and up 33 basis points since the end of February. Even so, both rates remain lower than a year ago by 41 bps and 19 bps, respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.47% in May, 16 bps higher than the previous month. …Persistently high inflation has also strained household budgets. As people used more of their disposable income or drew down on savings to cover everyday expenses, the personal saving rate fell to 2.6% in April. The rate was the lowest since June 2022 when CPI was at its peak.

Single-family construction declined across all geographies in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest Home Building Geography Index (HBGI), as elevated interest rates, rising material costs, and labor shortages slowed home building activities at the start of the year. Meanwhile, multifamily construction remained broadly resilient, posting growth in most markets. The pullback in single-family activity was sharpest in large metro core counties, which recorded a 16.0% year-over-year decline — a deterioration of 3.2 percentage points from the prior quarter. …These declines are part of a longer-term structural shift away from dense population centers. …Multifamily construction told a different story in Q1 2026, expanding across most geographies. Large metro core counties led the way with 20.8% growth, picking up pace after returning to positive territory in the prior quarter. …The first quarter of 2026 HBGI data along with an interactive map can be found here.

The US commercial construction and wood products landscape has been undergoing a noticeable geographic realignment. …At the center of this transition are two powerhouse species that help define the market: Douglas Fir and Southern Yellow Pine. Understanding how manufacturers are positioning themselves around these distinct timber baskets might offer valuable insight into where resources are building the critical infrastructure for the next decades of commercial, agricultural, and residential construction in the United States. …While the West Coast navigates these supply bottlenecks, the American South seems to be experiencing a sustained wave of modernization and investment, capitalizing on robust regional resources. …Take for example the recent investments made by companies like Canfor. …The company opened a cutting-edge sawmill complex in Axis, Alabama, an endeavor that highlights the industry’s shift toward high-tech manufacturing.

Elevated mortgage rates, higher inflation and economic uncertainty kept more buyers on the sidelines in April as ongoing affordability challenges continue. Sales of newly built single-family homes fell 6.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000, according to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales is down 11.3% from a year earlier. Mortgage interest rates increased from a monthly average of 6.18% in March to 6.33% in April per Freddie Mac, dampening homebuyer demand. Rates moved higher again in May to just above 6.4% as oil prices and short-term inflation expectations increased. New home sales are on track to decline in 2026 as mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated in the months ahead.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026, according to the second estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were exports, investment, consumer spending, and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Real GDP was revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting downward revisions to investment and consumer spending.  Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.4 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is debuting a new resource called the State Projections of Remodeling (SPR) that will provide a quarterly analysis of remodeling activity for each state in the nation based on total dollar volume, market share and change in remodeling spending. “We are pleased to unveil this new economic resource that will serve not only the remodeling sector, but the entire housing industry,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a home builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio. Based on a proprietary model developed by NAHB, the SPR on a quarterly basis provides a state-level estimation of the market share and total dollar value of remodeling spending. The SPR is a statistical model designed to use national quarterly improvement spending data and estimate remodeling market share by state using multiple indicators and NAHB’s annual state remodeling forecast.

According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts increased year-over-year during the first quarter of 2026. For the quarter, 107,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 103,000 were built-for-rent. This built-for-rent total was 21% higher than in the first quarter of 2025.

With overall single-family construction down 5% for the first four months of 2026, custom home building has been a relative bright spot. With spec home building down and the stock market up, custom building has expanded its market share. There were 36,000 total custom building starts during the first quarter of 2026. This is up 3% relative to the first quarter of 2025.

Single-family built-for-rent construction fell back in the first quarter of 2026, as a higher cost of financing, increased multifamily supply and policy concerns over Congressional legislation related to institutional capital froze parts of the development market. 

US consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to boost gasoline prices. Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022. The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month. …Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.7% last month to 4.8% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February 2026 prior to the start of the Iran conflict, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 3.5% in April to 3.9% in May, notably higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.

• Related in CNBC: US Consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May

Mortgage rates this week rose to the highest level since August, more bad news for home shoppers during what is usually the busiest time of the year for home sales. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.51% this week, from 6.36% last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday.  Higher mortgage rates and expensive home prices are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Rising costs in many places for home insurance and property taxes have also spooked buyers.  The rise in mortgage rates this year marks a reversal from the second half of 2025. …But that brief momentum has stalled. The war in Iran and subsequent rise in oil prices have led to worries about inflation and dampened expectations for the spring home-buying season. Existing-home sales were flat in April, well below economists’ expectations. …Mortgage rates look poised to keep rising. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

In a significant victory for NAHB and the broader housing sector, the US House of Representatives approved an amendment to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that removes a build-to-rent (BTR) sales provision that would have hurt affordability and reduced much-needed housing supply. NAHB led the push to remove the provision, which would have required purpose-built single-family rental homes to be sold within seven years. According to NAHB and the Urban Institute, the measure could have cut rental housing supply by 40,000 to 72,000 units each year. It also would have displaced thousands of tenants annually, shrinking the rental market and putting further pressure on rents. At a time of severe housing challenges, BTR remains one of the few market segments adding tens of thousands of homes that otherwise would not be built. The amended House bill also includes several other NAHB-backed measures to boost housing production.

US housing starts declined in April as construction of single-family homes dropped by the most in nearly a year, suggesting builders are growing cautious amid higher mortgage rates. New residential construction decreased 2.8% last month to an annualised rate of 1.47 million homes, according to government figures released on Thursday. Starts of single-family homes declined 9%, the most since August, to an annualised 930,000 pace. Multifamily housing starts, however, rose more than 10% to the highest level since May 2023. The report also showed single-family permits, a leading indicator of future construction, fell 2.6% to the lowest level since August. The figures suggest home builders remain focused on working off a still-elevated inventory of new properties. …Numerous challenges remain for a sustained pickup in home building, including rising mortgage rates, flagging consumer confidence and stretched household budgets.

• Related in the Real Economy: US Housing recovery will not happen this year

US Home Builder confidence posted a modest gain in May even as buyers grapple with rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty while builders continue to contend with elevated land, labor and construction costs. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes increased three points to 37 in May, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). …The survey also revealed that 32% of builders cut prices in May, down from 36% in April. The average price reduction was 6%, up from the 5% figure in April. …All three of the major HMI indices posted gains in May, as some buyers who had been holding back decided to move forward this spring. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 40 from April to May, the index measuring future sales increased three points to 45 and the index charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point gain to 25.

The House has introduced an NAHB-supported amendment to major housing legislation that would bring greater certainty to the housing market and increase the supply of attainable housing. The House amendment to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that was spearheaded by House Financial Services Chairman French Hill and Ranking Member Maxine Waters makes three key improvements: Removes the forced sale of purpose-built single-family homes. …Increases and indexes multifamily loan limits. FHA-insured multifamily loan limits have remained static for 12 years and do not reflect market conditions. …Provides meaningful relief to community banks.

The amended legislation includes several additional measures to help increase housing production: HOME program reforms. Point-access buildings. …Publicly owned land database. ….[and] USDA infill environmental review exemption.  The House plans to vote on this amended package to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act as soon as the week of May 18. 

From March to April, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the vast majority of commodities tracked by the US Census Bureau moved or up or down by single-digit percentages. Exceptions: Jet fuel increased 36.4%; Asphalt increased 29.4%; and softwood lumber increased 12.3%. Overall, the PPI for final demand increased 1.4% in April (seasonally adjusted), per the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. …The latest PPI report also sheds light on recent pricing movement for key building materials. Softwood lumber, which has seen supply tighten amid spiraling fuel costs and economic volatility, saw a sharp month-to-month bump (+12.3% from March to April 2026) after price drops early in the year. Despite the jolt, year-over-year prices for softwood lumber are just 0.9% higher than they were last year. …According to Associated Builders and Contractors, overall construction input prices are now 7% higher than one year ago, while nonresidential construction input prices are 7.4% higher.

US inflation accelerated to a nearly three-year high in April, driven by continued increases in energy costs from the Iran war. Energy costs drove more than 40% of the monthly increase, with national gasoline prices soaring above $4.50 in early May for the first time since July 2022. With energy costs straining household budgets and eroding purchasing power, this marks the first time inflation has outpaced wage growth since May 2023. As the ceasefire remains tenuous, energy prices are expected to remain elevated for months, continuing to put upward pressure on inflation and complicating the Fed’s path toward its 2% target. …On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in April from a year ago, following a 3.3% increase last month, according to the BLS latest report. This was the largest annual increase since May 2023.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4% in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices advanced 0.7% in March and 0.6% in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7% in March 2022. …U.S. producer prices for softwood lumber rose 12.3% in April and increased 0.9% over the past 12 months, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. April changes also included a 0.5% increase in hardwood lumber after a 0.1% decline in March. Millwork rose 0.7%, while plywood increased 1.2%.

The U.S. labor market continued to show resilience in April, with job growth persisting despite elevated interest rates and rising geopolitical uncertainty related to the Iran conflict. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Hiring gains were concentrated in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Wage growth accelerated modestly in April, with average hourly earnings rising 3.6% year-over-year. …Employment in the overall construction sector rose by 9,000 jobs in April, following a downwardly revised gain of 16,000 in March. Within the industry, residential construction shed 10,400 jobs, while non-residential construction added 19,000 jobs. …The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative, reflecting an average monthly loss of 2,333 jobs and declines in three of the past six months. However, over the last 12 months, residential construction has shed a net of 49,200 jobs, marking the 14th consecutive annual decline and the longest stretch of annual losses since the Great Recession.

Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022. While the expectations index inched up, current conditions fell back about 9%, owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases. Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March. …Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month. The current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war, along with all 2024 readings and the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019-2020, they were consistently below 2.8%.

MCLEAN, Virginia — Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.37%. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.37% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Recent data points to slightly better conditions for buyers with a boost in new-home sales, median new-home prices being down to their lowest level since July 2021, and higher inventory than in recent years. Together, these trends could modestly ease affordability pressures through the spring homebuying season.” …The 30-year FRM averaged 6.37% as of May 7, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.30%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.76%.

There is a research gap in localized remodeling data. To address this, NAHB is debuting a new economic resource: the State Projections of Remodeling (SPR). …SPR will provide a quarterly, state-level estimation of the market share and total dollar value of remodeling spending one month after the release of the NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI). …During the fourth quarter of 2025, remodeling spending at the national level came in at $280.1 billion on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), accounting for 37.7% of total private residential fixed investment. Even though spending fell for the second consecutive quarter from $282.6 in Q3 2025, remodeling spending has been larger than single-family construction spending for five straight quarters. California had the largest market share of remodeling spending at 7.9%, or $22.1 billion. This is followed by Texas (7.0%, or $19.7 billion), Florida (5.5%, or $15.3 billion), New York (3.9%, or $11.0 billion), and North Carolina (3.0%, or $8.4 billion).

Annual spending on improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes is projected to slow sharply in early 2027, according to the latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The new LIRA shows year-over-year growth in home renovation and repair spending of just 0.5% by the first quarter of 2027—a pace that remains positive in nominal terms but is less than overall inflation. “Growth in remodeling permits and retail spending on building products has been flat recently, signaling stagnant interest in home improvement,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “Even so, homeowners are expected to maintain spending at roughly last year’s levels, with total improvement and repair expenditures edging up modestly to $523 billion in early 2027.” 

US mortgage rates continued to increase in April as ceasefire negotiations remain inconclusive. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.34% in April, 16 basis points (bps) higher than March. The average 15-year rate also increased by 13 bps to 5.69%. Despite the recent increase, both rates remain lower than a year ago by 39 bps and 21 bps, respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.31%, up 7 bps from the previous month. Ongoing blockades in the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices above $100 per barrel. This has passed through to inflation which climbed to 3.3%, nearing a two-year high. Energy components led the increase with fuel oil prices rising 30.7% and gasoline up 21.2% in March. At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% as inflation remains elevated alongside continued economic expansion.