Category Archives: Finance & Economics

From March to April, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the vast majority of commodities tracked by the US Census Bureau moved or up or down by single-digit percentages. Exceptions: Jet fuel increased 36.4%; Asphalt increased 29.4%; and softwood lumber increased 12.3%. Overall, the PPI for final demand increased 1.4% in April (seasonally adjusted), per the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. …The latest PPI report also sheds light on recent pricing movement for key building materials. Softwood lumber, which has seen supply tighten amid spiraling fuel costs and economic volatility, saw a sharp month-to-month bump (+12.3% from March to April 2026) after price drops early in the year. Despite the jolt, year-over-year prices for softwood lumber are just 0.9% higher than they were last year. …According to Associated Builders and Contractors, overall construction input prices are now 7% higher than one year ago, while nonresidential construction input prices are 7.4% higher.

US inflation accelerated to a nearly three-year high in April, driven by continued increases in energy costs from the Iran war. Energy costs drove more than 40% of the monthly increase, with national gasoline prices soaring above $4.50 in early May for the first time since July 2022. With energy costs straining household budgets and eroding purchasing power, this marks the first time inflation has outpaced wage growth since May 2023. As the ceasefire remains tenuous, energy prices are expected to remain elevated for months, continuing to put upward pressure on inflation and complicating the Fed’s path toward its 2% target. …On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in April from a year ago, following a 3.3% increase last month, according to the BLS latest report. This was the largest annual increase since May 2023.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4% in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Final demand prices advanced 0.7% in March and 0.6% in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7% in March 2022. …U.S. producer prices for softwood lumber rose 12.3% in April and increased 0.9% over the past 12 months, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. April changes also included a 0.5% increase in hardwood lumber after a 0.1% decline in March. Millwork rose 0.7%, while plywood increased 1.2%.

The U.S. labor market continued to show resilience in April, with job growth persisting despite elevated interest rates and rising geopolitical uncertainty related to the Iran conflict. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Hiring gains were concentrated in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Wage growth accelerated modestly in April, with average hourly earnings rising 3.6% year-over-year. …Employment in the overall construction sector rose by 9,000 jobs in April, following a downwardly revised gain of 16,000 in March. Within the industry, residential construction shed 10,400 jobs, while non-residential construction added 19,000 jobs. …The six-month moving average of job gains for residential construction remains negative, reflecting an average monthly loss of 2,333 jobs and declines in three of the past six months. However, over the last 12 months, residential construction has shed a net of 49,200 jobs, marking the 14th consecutive annual decline and the longest stretch of annual losses since the Great Recession.

Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022. While the expectations index inched up, current conditions fell back about 9%, owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases. Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March. …Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month. The current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war, along with all 2024 readings and the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019-2020, they were consistently below 2.8%.

MCLEAN, Virginia — Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.37%. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.37% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Recent data points to slightly better conditions for buyers with a boost in new-home sales, median new-home prices being down to their lowest level since July 2021, and higher inventory than in recent years. Together, these trends could modestly ease affordability pressures through the spring homebuying season.” …The 30-year FRM averaged 6.37% as of May 7, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.30%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.76%.

There is a research gap in localized remodeling data. To address this, NAHB is debuting a new economic resource: the State Projections of Remodeling (SPR). …SPR will provide a quarterly, state-level estimation of the market share and total dollar value of remodeling spending one month after the release of the NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI). …During the fourth quarter of 2025, remodeling spending at the national level came in at $280.1 billion on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), accounting for 37.7% of total private residential fixed investment. Even though spending fell for the second consecutive quarter from $282.6 in Q3 2025, remodeling spending has been larger than single-family construction spending for five straight quarters. California had the largest market share of remodeling spending at 7.9%, or $22.1 billion. This is followed by Texas (7.0%, or $19.7 billion), Florida (5.5%, or $15.3 billion), New York (3.9%, or $11.0 billion), and North Carolina (3.0%, or $8.4 billion).

Annual spending on improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes is projected to slow sharply in early 2027, according to the latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) from the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The new LIRA shows year-over-year growth in home renovation and repair spending of just 0.5% by the first quarter of 2027—a pace that remains positive in nominal terms but is less than overall inflation. “Growth in remodeling permits and retail spending on building products has been flat recently, signaling stagnant interest in home improvement,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “Even so, homeowners are expected to maintain spending at roughly last year’s levels, with total improvement and repair expenditures edging up modestly to $523 billion in early 2027.” 

US mortgage rates continued to increase in April as ceasefire negotiations remain inconclusive. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.34% in April, 16 basis points (bps) higher than March. The average 15-year rate also increased by 13 bps to 5.69%. Despite the recent increase, both rates remain lower than a year ago by 39 bps and 21 bps, respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.31%, up 7 bps from the previous month. Ongoing blockades in the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices above $100 per barrel. This has passed through to inflation which climbed to 3.3%, nearing a two-year high. Energy components led the increase with fuel oil prices rising 30.7% and gasoline up 21.2% in March. At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% as inflation remains elevated alongside continued economic expansion. 

Following the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve opted to maintain its current stance, leaving interest rates unchanged. The target for the federal funds rate remains at a top level of 3.75%, where it has stood since December. This meeting may represent the final policy decision led by Jerome Powell in his role as Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, bringing his eight-year tenure in that position to a close. President Trump’s nominee, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, is widely expected to secure Senate confirmation and take over in time for the next FOMC gathering. However, Powell plans to continue serving as a member of the Board of Governors after relinquishing the Chair position. …Powell has said he will remain as a Governor as long as the Justice Department’s probe into the cost of the renovations to the Fed’s headquarters remains active.

The April meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy committee featured a lot of institutional news for a month in which the Fed kept monetary policy unchanged. The outlook for the economy and monetary policy remains unclear due to geopolitical turbulence and domestic policy uncertainty. This headline risk is delaying additional Fed monetary policy easing, likely until the end of 2026 or possibly into 2027. The Fed continued its current pause for rate reductions at the conclusion of the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank’s monetary policy decision making body. The FOMC held the short-term federal funds rate at a top rate of 3.75%, the level set in December of last year. This marked the third policy pause since the Fed resumed easing in September of 2025. The Fed’s statement of current economic conditions and policy stance was relatively unchanged from March to April.

WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly edged higher in April amid a rally in share prices following a ceasefire in the war with Iran and improved perceptions of the labor market, helping ​to ease households’ financial worries for now. Despite the rise in confidence to a four-month high, the survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed higher gasoline prices ‌stemming from the conflict with Iran remained a source of concern for consumers. Fewer planned vacations over the next six months and the share of those intending to drive to their holiday destinations was the lowest since April 2020. …The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index climbed 0.6 point to 92.8 this month. Economists had forecast the index easing to ​89.0. It was in stark contrast with the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, which last week showed its Consumer Sentiment Index slumping to a record low in April.

WASHINGTON — US single-family homebuilding increased to a 13-month high in March, but the improvement was likely a blip as permits for future construction fell sharply and confidence among builders remained subdued. Single-family housing starts, ​which account for the bulk of homebuilding, surged 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate ‌of 1.032 million units, the highest level since February 2025, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Single-family housing starts increased to a pace of 941,000 units in February from 898,000 units in January. They rose 8.9% year-on-year in March. Permits ​for future construction of single-family homes decreased 3.8% last month to a rate of 895,000 units. ​They had increased to a pace of 930,000 units in February from 876,000 units ⁠in January. Single-family building permits dropped 7.9% year-on-year in March. …Overall housing ​starts vaulted 10.8% to ⁠a pace of 1.502 million units. They increased 10.8% year-on-year in March.