Category Archives: Finance & Economics

New home sales decreased in January to a three-month low, as housing affordability continues to sideline potential home buyers. Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6% throughout 2025, coupled with elevated home prices, creating a significant affordability challenge for both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in January decreased 10.5% to a 657,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised December number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in January is down 1.1% compared to a year earlier. …New single-family home inventory in January continued to rise to a level of 495,000, up 7.4% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 9 months’ supply at the current building pace.

Home Depot’s CFO said people are “moving on” from today’s high mortgage rates and have started investing more in their homes. The home improvement company reported strong fourth-quarter results, although CEO Ted Decker said consumers are still reluctant to make larger investments like a kitchen remodel. Experts say people may start to view today’s mortgage rates as normal, especially when compared to historic rates. …“Housing is still frozen by mortgage rates,” Richard McPhail, said. Yet McPhail said Home Depot, which reported strong Q4 results Tuesday, has seen sales growth in nearly 80% of its U.S. geographic regions. …For Q4, 2024, Home Depot saw a 14.1% year-over-year increase in sales, which “exceeded our expectations,” Ted Decker CEO, said. …“We saw greater engagement in home improvement spend, despite ongoing pressure on large remodeling projects,” Decker said

The traditional price gap between new and existing homes was nearly nonexistent at the end of 2024. The median price for a new single-family home sold in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $419,200, a mere $9,100 above the existing home sales price of $410,100, according to U.S. Census Bureau. Typically, new homes carry a price premium over existing homes. However, for the first time in the quarterly data since 1989, the median existing home price exceeded the new home price in the second quarter of 2024, and again in the third quarter of 2024. …Meanwhile, the median price for existing single-family homes increased 4.80% from one year ago. Existing home prices have continued to experience year-over-year increases for six consecutive quarters.

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates gains for custom home builders after a period slight softening of market share. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building. There were 47,000 total custom building starts during the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks a 7% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. In 2024 as a whole, custom housing starts totaled 181,000 homes, just below a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (178,000 in 2023). Currently, the market share of custom home building is approximately 18% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% local peak rate at the beginning of 2023, after which spec home building gained market share.

US Consumer sentiment extended its early month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January. The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth. All five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions for durables, in large part due to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent. Expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic outlook both declined almost 10% in February, while the long-run economic outlook fell back about 6% to its lowest reading since November 2023. While sentiment fell for both Democrats and Independents, it was unchanged for Republicans, reflecting continued disagreements on the consequences of new economic policies. …Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases. 

Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. …Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.  And policy changes will clearly have a negative impact on homebuilders.  Early in February, I expressed my “increasing concern” about the negative economic impact of “executive / fiscal policy errors”, however, I concluded by noting that I was not currently on recession watch.  Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment… to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. …I share BESPOKE’s concern about the potential negative impact of policy on housing starts, but I think it is way too early to start predicting a recession.

President Donald Trump “thrives on unpredictability”, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS. In the last 30 days alone, multiple tariffs by Trump have been announced, imposed, called off and hotly debated. Now, the tariffs are beginning to take shape. And homebuilders are wary. …The real outcry, though, regards lumber. Roughly 30% of the lumber used in the United States last year was imported – more than 85% from Canada. …the housing industry is sharing concerns. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, the NAHB applauded his day-one executive order that urged government agencies to take action to lower housing costs and expand supply. But NAHB chairman Carl Harris said raising tariffs will have the opposite effect. …“Tariffs on lumber and other building materials increase the cost of construction and discourage new development, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices,” Harris said in a press release.

We expect housing starts to be 1.347 million units in 2024, a 5.3 per cent decline from 2023, their lowest level since 2020. With mortgage rates remaining elevated in 2025, we do not expect much relief for the year. Our forecast calls for housing starts to edge only slightly higher to 1.38 million units for the year. We do expect mortgage rates will continue to trend lower through 2025 and into 2026. This, combined with the strong fundamentals underlying softwood lumber’s main end-use markets, as well as the historically low inventories of homes for sale, will help push starts up to 1.501 million in 2026. The declines in residential-improvement expenditures next year will mostly offset growth in housing starts, with North American consumption forecast to increase just 0.7 per cent for the year. We expect North American consumption growth to increase to 4.8 per cent in 2026 as the recovery in the U.S. economy and end-use markets builds momentum. 

Builder sentiment fell sharply in February over concerns on tariffs, elevated mortgage rates and high housing costs. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in February, down five points from January and the lowest level in five months. …While builders hold out hope for pro-development policies, particularly for regulatory reform, policy uncertainty and cost factors created a reset for 2025 expectations. Uncertainty on the tariff front helped push builders’ expectations for future sales volume down to the lowest level since December 2023. With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell four points to 46, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months plunged 13 points to 46, and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point decline to 29.

Constrained housing affordability conditions due to ongoing, elevated interest rates led to a reduction in single-family production to start the new year. Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million units. …Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 8.4% to a 993,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate; the January pace was 1.8% lower than a year ago. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 13.5% to an annualized 373,000 pace. …High construction costs, elevated mortgage rates and challenging housing affordability conditions are causing builders to approach the market with caution. There are competing upside and downside risks, including discussed tariffs and regulatory reform. …Overall permits increased 0.1% to a 1.48 million unit annualized rate in January. Single-family permits were at a 996,000 annual unit rate, remaining unchanged compared to the previous month. Multifamily permits increased 0.2% to an annualized 487,000 pace.

Over 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 981,834. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 8.0% over the 2023 level of 909,227. Year-to-date ending in December, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 11.1% in the Midwest to 6.2% in the South. The West was up by 10.9% and the Northeast was up by 9.3% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York City’s MSA, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 38.5%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 26.9%, the South declined by 19.5%, and the Midwest declined by 1.1%.