Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Buying a house is expensive. Lumber tariffs will make it worse

By Vanessa Yurkevich
CNN Business
March 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

CNN’s Vanessa Yurkevich explains how much US home prices could increase due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. [Video report only, 2 .5 minutes]

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Inflation’s surprise jump could push Bank of Canada to pause rate cuts

The Canadian Press in BNN Bloomberg
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

A surprise jump in inflation and a flood of “noise” in the economy may push the Bank of Canada to pause its interest rate cuts next month, some economists argue. Statistics Canada said that the annual rate of inflation accelerated sharply to 2.6% in February as the federal government’s temporary tax break came to an end mid-month. That marks a sizeable jump from the 1.9% increase seen in January, when Canadians saw GST and HST taken off a variety of household staples. …Economists expect Ottawa’s move to strike the consumer carbon price as of April 1 will take some steam out of the inflation figures next month. But Nguyen argued the pressure from the trade dispute — Trump has threatened another wave of tariffs on April 2 — will “outweigh” the benefits of eliminating the carbon price for consumers.

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Canada’s investment in building construction rose 1.8% in January

Statistics Canada
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Overall, investment in building construction rose 1.8% (+$393.7 million) to $22.1 billion in January. The residential sector increased 2.3% to $15.4 billion, while the non-residential sector was up 0.8% to $6.7 billion. Year over year, investment in building construction grew 5.7% in January. On a constant dollar basis (2017=100), investment in building construction increased 1.5% from the previous month to $13.2 billion in January and was up 2.5% year over year. …Investment in multi-unit construction was up $497.5 million to $8.2 billion in January. Single-family home investment declined $155.5 million to $7.2 billion in January, with declines being recorded in eight provinces and one territory. …Investment in non-residential construction increased $51.7 million to $6.7 billion in January. This marked the sixth consecutive monthly increase. 

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Tariff Uncertainty Keeping Canadian Home Buyers on the Sidelines

The Canadian Real Estate Association
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canadian home sales fell sharply from January to February, as home buyers remained on the sidelines in the first full month of the ongoing trade war with the United States. Sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems dropped 9.8% month-over-month in February 2025, marking the lowest level for home sales since November 2023, and the largest month-over-month decline in activity since May 2022. “The moment tariffs were first announced on January 20, a gap opened between home sales recorded this year and last. This trend continued to widen throughout February, leading to a significant, but hardly surprising, drop in monthly activity,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. …There were 4.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2025, up sharply from 4.1 months at the end of January. The long-term average is five months of inventory.

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Trade turmoil forecast to slash growth in Canada and Mexico

By Faarea Masud
BBC News
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Trump’s escalating trade tariffs will hit world growth and raise inflation, the OECD has predicted. Canada and Mexico are forecast to see the biggest impact as they have had the harshest tariffs imposed on them, but US growth is also expected to be hit. …Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. The US has also imposed 25% tariffs on other imports from Mexico and Canada – with some exemptions – and a 20% levy on Chinese goods. Canada and the EU have announced retaliatory tariffs. …Canada’s economy is predicted to grow by just 0.7% this year and in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 2% for both years. Mexico is now forecast to contract by 1.3% this year and shrink a further 0.6% next year, instead of growing by 1.2% and 1.6%. Growth in the US has also been downgraded, with growth of 2.2% this year and 1.6% in 2025, down from previous forecasts of 2.4% and 2.1% China’s growth forecast will fall slightly to 4.8%.

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Trump tariffs on lumber and appliances set stage for higher costs on new homes and remodeling projects

By Alex Veiga, Mae Anderson and Anne D’Innocenzio
The Associated Press in CTV News
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China — some already in place, others set to take effect in a few weeks — are already driving up the cost of building materials used in new residential construction and home remodeling projects. The tariffs are projected to raise the costs that go into building a single-family home in the U.S. by US$7,500 to US$10,000, according to the NAHB. We Buy Houses in San Francisco, which purchases foreclosed homes and then typically renovates and sells them, is increasing prices on its refurbished properties between 7% and 12%. That’s even after stockpiling 62% more Canadian lumber than usual. …The timing of the tariffs couldn’t be worse as this is typically the busiest time of year for home sales. …Confusion over the timing and scope of the tariffs, and their impact on the economy, could have a bigger chilling effect on the new-home market than higher prices.

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US Builder Confidence Falls to 7-month Low on Cost Uncertainty

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
The NAHB Eye on Housing
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Economic uncertainty, the threat of tariffs and elevated construction costs pushed builder sentiment down in March even as builders express hope that a better regulatory environment will lead to an improving business climate. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 39 in March, down three points from February and the lowest level in seven months. …Construction firms are facing added cost pressures from tariffs. Data from the HMI March survey reveals that builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $9,200 per home. Uncertainty on policy is also having a negative impact on home buyers and development decisions. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 43 in March, its lowest point since December 2023. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped five points to 24 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 47.

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Canada’s housing start slowed 4% in February

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
March 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in February slowed four per cent compared with January. The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate housing starts came in at 229,030 units for February, down from 239,322 in January. The result came as the pace of starts for single-detached homes fell one per cent to 56,273 in February compared with 56,794 in January. The rate of all other housing starts dropped five per cent to 172,759 in February compared with 182,529 a month earlier. CMHC says the seasonally adjusted annual pace of starts for cities with a population of 10,000 or greater fell five per cent in February to 209,784 compared with 220,074 in January. …The six-month moving average for the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts in February was 239,382, up 1.1% from January.

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Value of building permits issued in Canada decreased in January

Statistics Canada
March 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

In January, the total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased by $425.8 million (-3.2%) from the previous month to $12.8 billion. Ontario (-$771.1 million) led the decline, while New Brunswick (+$356.8 million) tempered it the most. On a constant dollar basis (2017=100), the total value of building permits issued in January declined 2.5% from the previous month, while it was up 13.4% on a year-over-year basis. …Across Canada, 23,500 multi-family dwellings and 4,900 single-family dwellings were authorized in January, down 3.7% from the previous month, but up 37.4% on a year-over-year basis. …The value of non-residential building permits decreased by $113.0 million (-2.7%) to $4.0 billion in January, a fourth consecutive monthly decrease. The industrial component (-$285.0 million) drove the decline, followed by the institutional component (-$87.4 million). The commercial component (+$259.4 million) mitigated the decline in the non-residential sector.

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The Reason So Much of America’s Lumber Comes From Canada

By Karuna Eberl
Family Handyman
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Now that a 25% tariff on lumber from Canada is looming, will this cause crazy wood pricing to return? To some extent, that is very probable, and here’s why. In 2024, our country got about 72% of its lumber from its own forests. The rest was imported from various countries, especially Canada, from which we purchased 28.1 million cubic meters last year. Canada accounts for 84.3% of all softwood lumber imports. …While it might be possible to switch to importing more lumber from other countries, none has Canada’s large production capacity. Also, supply chains — especially for lumber — are complex and costly to change, says Frederik Laleicke, at NC State University. …As long as demand for lumber doesn’t drop, a 25% tariff on Canada will likely make lumber—and therefore new houses and renovations—more expensive since US companies will raise the price of Canadian-sourced lumber to compensate for the tariffs.

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Lumber Futures Rebound Amid Trade War Escalation

Trading Economics
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures rebounded to around $650 per thousand board feet, nearing the two-and-a-half-year high of $658 touched earlier this month as escalating U.S. tariff threats on steel, aluminum, and dairy—along with the prospect of sharply higher auto tariffs—stoked fears of further trade restrictions, reversing the recent plunge. The renewed trade war tensions have heightened concerns that lumber could be the next target, prompting traders to reassess supply risks. Earlier, prices had dropped to around $600 after President Trump delayed a 25% tariff on Canadian softwood for the second time, temporarily easing supply concerns. The proposed levy, which would raise total duties to as much as 52%, could significantly strain North American production and push construction costs higher. However, the latest escalation in the trade war has reversed sentiment, with traders wary that lumber could still face new restrictions, driving speculative buying. [END]

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How tariffs are affecting lumber pricing

By Neil Agarwal, Frisco Woodline
The HBS Dealer
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

I have received several questions from owners and contractors regarding what to expect with lumber prices given the tariffs (or the potential of tariffs, depending on the day). The short answer is prices will go up. The long answer is much more complicated and hinges on a number of factors and considerations. 1. Almost 30 percent of the lumber used in the U.S. each year comes from Canada. …2. Any tariffs or potential for tariffs creates opportunistic price increases. …3. Demand, however, doesn’t seem to be particularly strong for new construction at this time. …4. Tariffs do help to onshore manufacturing (a long-term positive), but the trees aren’t all in America. …In the short-term, tariffs create more uncertainty and increased pricing, which only further adds to the inflation story. In the long-term, tariffs on lumber won’t achieve the level of onshoring that can happen in other industries. 

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Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75%

By Jenna Benchetrit
CBC News
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada has cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, it announced on Wednesday. In a note explaining the decision, the bank said the economy started the year strong, with solid GDP growth and inflation within its two per cent target. But tariff uncertainty caused by the on-again, off-again trade war between Canada and the U.S. has weighed on business spending and hiring, and shaken consumer confidence, the decision said. It’s “against this backdrop” that the central bank decided to cut the rate by a quarter point, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem wrote in his remarks. …Macklem has noted in the past that the bank cannot shield the Canadian economy from the financial impact of tariffs, but that it can instead use interest rates to manage a potential surge in inflation.

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US lumber futures slide on Trump’s Canadian tariffs delay

By Susanna Savage
The Financial Times
March 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

US lumber futures have fallen from their all-time highs after president Trump’s delay to tariffs on Canada this week halted a surge in prices. Contracts tracking a truckload of lumber hit the highest point in their 30-month history this week. …Trump initially planned to impose 25% tariffs on critical Canadian imports, boosting prices, but Thursday’s pause for a month pushed prices for delivery in May down more than 6% over two days, to $651 per MBF. Even so, prices remain elevated as Trump also ordered a federal investigation into Canadian companies potentially dumping excess supplies into the US market. …Together with potential tariffs, the total duty on Canadian imports could rise from 14.5 per cent to 52 per cent. “This is going to be devastating for Canadian producers,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist for wood products at price reporting agency Fastmarkets. “No Canadian producer is making the margin to be able to absorb that.”

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‘Very difficult position’: Bank of Canada expected to cut rate amid trade uncertainty

By Craig Lord
The Canadian Press in CTV News
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Tiff Macklem

OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement arrives on Wednesday in a cloud of uncertainty thanks to a shifting trade war with the United States. Most economists expect the central bank will deliver another quarter-point rate cut while it waits to see how long the dispute with Canada’s largest trading partner lasts. The Bank of Canada faces a difficult task: setting monetary policy at a time when inflation has shown signs of stubbornness and the economy picks up steam, while risks of a sharp downturn tied to U.S. tariffs loom on the horizon. …Even as U.S. President Donald Trump followed through on his promises to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, the exact nature of those tariffs have shifted with a series of pauses and amendments in the days since.

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Canfor reports Q4, 2024 net loss of $63 million

Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp Products Inc.
March 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its fourth quarter of 2024 results. Highlights include: Q4 2024 operating loss of $46 million; shareholder net loss of $63 million; Supply-driven uptick in North American lumber markets and pricing through the fourth quarter led to improved results from the Company’s Western Canadian and US South operations; another quarter of solid earnings from Europe; Improved results for Canfor Pulp; relatively stable global pulp market fundamentals through most of the fourth quarter, with some positive momentum late in the period; persistent challenges associated with the availability of economic fibre in British Columbia. …Canfor’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Susan Yurkovich, said, “Following several quarters of very weak global lumber market conditions, we were pleased to see a slight uplift in North American benchmark lumber prices during the fourth quarter, which gave rise to improved results across all our lumber operating regions.”

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US faces housing affordability crisis, calls for negotiated end to tariffs on Canadian lumber

By Buddy Hughes, Chairman
The National Association of Home Builders
March 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

WASHINGTON — Implementing policies to alleviate supply-side bottlenecks that are the main drivers of low housing supply and high home prices would help ease the nation’s housing affordability crisis and allow builders to increase the supply of attainable, affordable housing, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) told Congress. …To help address these issues, NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes called on Congress to take the following actions:

  • Preserve and strengthen key federal programs including the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, HUD Section 8 housing voucher programs
  • Support workforce development programs such as Job Corps and pass the CONSTRUCTS Act, legislation
  • Responsibly boost the domestic supply of lumber and call on the Trump administration to negotiate a long-term softwood lumber agreement with Canada that will end lumber tariffs, help stabilize this volatile market and give builders greater price stability
  • Pass the Identifying Regulatory Barriers to Housing Supply Act
  • Rein in excessive regulatory costs and reassert congressional authority over federal agencies’ rulemaking agendas. 

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Lumber Prices Hit Two-Year High As US Investigates Canadian Softwood

The Globe and Mail
March 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber prices have risen to their highest level in more than two years on news that U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into softwood imports from Canada. The lumber probe is the latest salvo in an escalating trade war between the neighbouring countries. Analysts say that the investigation lays the groundwork for potential new %Tariffs on Canadian lumber, notably softwood imports. …Consequently, lumber futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have risen 3.5% over the past day to trade at $657 U.S. per 1,000 board feet, the highest level since mid-2022. However, while lumber prices are marching higher on the threat of U.S. tariffs, the stocks of Canadian lumber companies are tanking. Shares of Interfor fell 9% while the stock of %Canfor declined 6% in Toronto trading on March 4, the day that the 25% tariffs went into effect.

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Tariff uncertainty slows February housing activity in B.C. by over 9%

By Joe Hernandez
CBC News
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

B.C.’s real estate association says there was a sharp drop in home sales last month. Purchases fell by just under 10 per cent provincewide. As Jon Hernandez reports, tariffs and economic uncertainty could be making buyers think twice.

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Conifex Timber reports Q4, 2024 net loss of $29.8 million

By Conifex Timber Inc.
Globe Newswire in the Financial Post
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER — Conifex Timber reported results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024. EBITDA from continuing operations was negative $2.1 million for the quarter and negative $13.6 million for the year, compared to EBITDA of negative $3.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and negative $25.8 million for the year. Net loss was $29.8 million for the quarter while it was $11.8 million for the full year. …While there are signs that the macro-environment for the lumber industry is starting to improve, Conifex continues to review its options to improve liquidity. …Since January 6, 2025, we have been operating our sawmill complex on a two-shift basis and capturing the dual benefits of higher shipments and lower unit costs that a two-shift operation provides over a single-shift configuration. 

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Forestry industry questions aspects of B.C.’s budget

By Wolf Depner
Terrace Standard
March 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

The B.C. Council of Forest Industries (COFI) welcomed B.C.’s responses to American tariffs, but questioned aspects of the provincial budget tabled Tuesday. B.C.’s forests minister, meanwhile, is calling on Ottawa to step up supports.  Kim Haakstad, president and CEO of COFI, said her organization welcomes the budget’s focus on responding to new tariffs announced March 4. “We are disappointed by the absence of dedicated support for the forest sector,” Haakstad said. “As Premier (David) Eby and (Forests) Minister (Ravi) Parmar have acknowledged, the forest sector will be particularly hard hit by the new tariffs at a time when the industry is already facing significant challenges. These broad-based tariffs apply to all forest product exports … adding further pressure on workers, companies and communities already affected by softwood lumber duties.” …COFI remains committed to working with the government to advance solutions that strengthen the forestry sector, improve the provincial economy and diversify markets. 

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GreenFirst Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter of 2024

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc.
March 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

TORONTO — GreenFirst Forest Products announced results for the year ended December 31, 2024. Highlights include: Q4 2024 net loss from continuing operations was $26.6 million compared to net income of $14.8 million in Q3 2024. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for Q4 2024 was negative $0.9 million compared to negative $15.7 million in Q3 2024. …“Despite higher production, sales during Q4 were impacted negatively by weather-related disruptions that slowed our supply chain. …We continue to navigate the external challenges facing our business, including potential tariffs on exports to the US,” said Joel Fournier, GreenFirst’s CEO. 

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KP Tissue reports Q4, 2024 net loss of $13.7 million

KP Tissue Inc.
March 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

MISSISSAUGA, Ontario — KP Tissue reported its Q4, 2024 and full year 2024 financial and operational results of KPT and Kruger Products. Highlights include: Revenue was $539.6 million in Q4 2024 compared to $482.3 million in Q4 2023, an increase of $57.3 million or 11.9%; and Net loss was $13.7 million in Q4 2024 compared to net income of $16.5 million in Q4 2023, a decrease of $30.2 million. …Kruger Products Full Year 2024 Financial Highlights include: Revenue was $2,049.9 million in Fiscal 2024 compared to $1,873.0 million in Fiscal 2023, an increase of $176.9 million or 9.4%; and Net income was $23.8 million in Fiscal 2024 compared to a net loss of $5.3 million in Fiscal 2023, an improvement in net income of $29.1 million.

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US-Canada Trade-War Tensions Show 72% of Americans Expect Housing Market Slowdown

By Sharad Mehta
Resimpli.com
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

A REsimpli survey through Pollfish finds that due to the US-Canada trade-war tensions, 72% of Americans expect the housing market to slow down. This study analyzed 1,200 American citizens who are concerned with major political events and economic changes in the country currently, seeking their input on the trajectory of the country’s housing market. Key Takeaways include:

  • 72% of people believe that ‘Reciprocal Tariffs’ will hurt the US housing market
  • 66.4% of people believe that Canadian investors will pull back from the US
  • 55.9% of people believe housing affordability will be negatively impacted
  • 51.3% of people believe the US mortgage rates will increase
  • 54.5% believe homebuyers will become more cautious
  • 19.3% of the respondents would delay purchasing a home due to trade tensions

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US Single-Family Housing Starts Hit 12-Month High in February

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Limited existing inventory helped single-family starts to post a solid gain in February, but builders are still grappling with elevated construction costs. Overall housing starts increased 11.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.50 million units. …Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 11.4% to a 1.11 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the highest pace since February 2024. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 10.7% to an annualized 393,000 pace. …Overall permits decreased 1.2% to a 1.46-million-unit annualized rate in February and were down 6.8% compared to February 2024. Single-family permits decreased 0.2% to a 992,000-unit rate and were down 3.4% compared to the previous year. Multifamily permits decreased 3.1% to a 464,000 pace. …The number of single-family homes under construction in February was down 6.7% from a year ago, at 640,000 homes.

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Trump Wants to Build Homes on Federal Land. Here’s What That Would Look Like.

By Rebecca Picciotto
The Wall Street Journal
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Trump administration is creating a task force to identify federal land that would be suitable for building affordable housing. The initiative marks the administration’s first step toward a pledge to unlock vast swaths of federal land to address America’s housing shortage by transferring or leasing the land to local governments. The task force will be run jointly by the Interior Department, which oversees the Bureau of Land Management, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the two agencies’ secretaries wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece on Sunday. Developing even 512,000 acres of the Bureau of Land Management’s lots could yield between three million and four million new homes across western states such as Nevada, Utah, California and Arizona, according to a preliminary analysis by the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington, D.C., center-right think tank.

[a paid subscription is required to read this article; however, the interactive map feature is freely accessible!]

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Homebuyers, remodelers set to pay more as tariffs on lumber and appliances take effect

Oregon Live
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Shopping for a new home? Ready to renovate your kitchen or install a new deck? You’ll be paying more to do so. The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China are already driving up the cost of building materials used in new residential construction and home remodeling projects. The tariffs are projected to raise the costs that go into building a single-family home in the U.S. by $7,500 to $10,000… Such costs are typically passed along to the homebuyer in the form of higher prices, which could hurt demand at a time when the U.S. housing market remains in a slump and many builders are having to offer buyers costly incentives to drum up sales… “These prices will never come down,” Schnipper said. “Whatever is going to happen, these things will be sticky and hopefully we’re good enough as a small business, that we can absorb some of that.”

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US Housing Starts Surge 11.2% in February, But Falling Permits Signal Future Slowdown

FX Empire
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The US housing market showed mixed signals in February, with a sharp rise in housing starts contrasting with a decline in building permits. According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, new residential construction activity picked up, but future construction intentions weakened, raising questions about the sector’s near-term strength. Privately-owned housing starts surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February, marking an 11.2% increase from January’s revised figure of 1.350 million. The single-family sector led the gains, with starts rising 11.4% to 1.108 million units. However, despite this strong monthly performance, overall starts remained 2.9% below February 2024 levels, signaling ongoing challenges in year-over-year growth. …This decline extended the downward trend, with permits now 6.8% below year-ago levels. Single-family authorizations remained relatively stable at 992,000, down just 0.2% from January. 

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Trump Team Explored Simplified Plan for Reciprocal Tariffs

By Gavin Bade Follow, Josh Dawsey Follow & Vipal Monga
Wall Street Journal
March 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Trump administration officials are roiled in debate over how to implement the president’s pledge to equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by other nations, with aides scrambling to meet the president’s self-imposed deadline of April 2 to debut a plan. Officials have recently weighed whether to simplify the complex task of devising new tariff rates for hundreds of U.S. trading partners by instead sorting nations into one of three tariff tiers, according to people close to the policy discussions, who emphasized that the situation remains fluid and could evolve in the coming weeks. The proposal was later ruled out, said an administration official close to the talks, adding that Trump’s team is still trying to sort how to implement an individualized rate for each nation. …The reciprocal tariff plan is expected to be introduced on April 2, along with additional 25% duties on a handful of industries, such as autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

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Timber prices set to rise with increased housing starts and investment

By Jennifer Coskren, Kyle Higgins, Lasse Sinikallas, & Austin Lamica
RISI Fastmarkets
March 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

For 2025, Fastmarkets predicts that total US housing starts and R&R will increase 4% and 1%, respectively. Therefore, prices of lumber, in theory, should increase as demand would increase to meet the growing housing and R&R markets. We anticipate US softwood sawlog prices will trend higher over the forecast. …Additionally, sawlog supplies in most of the major softwood-producing timber baskets outside of the US South will begin to tighten. …Total housing starts are expected to grow 3.7% over the medium-term forecast from 2024 to 2028. By the end of 2028, total starts will average 1.694 million units. This will mark the peak for this construction cycle as demographics ease through the long term. …Despite an anticipated uptick in Southern pine lumber prices in 2025, we predict that Southern pine sawtimber prices will continue to decline and support the persistently weak correlation between lumber and timber in the South.

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Softwood Lumber Prices Continue to Lead Price Growth for Building Materials

By Jess Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 0.5% in February according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in January was revised downward to 1.1%. The Producer Price Index measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services. …The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 0.7% from February of last year. …Among materials used in residential construction, lumber and wood products ranks 3rd in terms of importance for the Inputs to New Residential Construction Index. Prices for these wood commodities experienced little growth for most of 2024. Currently, softwood lumber prices were 11.7% higher compared to one year ago while on a monthly basis, prices rose 3.0%. This marks the fourth straight month where yearly price growth was above 10% for softwood lumber.

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Tariffs to add as much as $10,000 to the cost of the average new home, trade association says

By Alex Harring
NBC Los Angeles
March 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Trump’s tariffs could increase material costs for the average new home by as much as $10,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The trade group said it has received anecdotal reports from members that Trump’s plan would raise material prices by between $7,500 and $10,000 for the average new single-family home. …The NAHB said softwood lumber is mainly sourced from Canada, while gypsum, a component of drywall, comes primarily from Mexico. Other materials like steel and aluminum — in addition to completed home appliances — are imported to the U.S. from China, the group said. An implementation of the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as previously laid out by Trump would raise total costs for imported construction materials by more than $3 billion, according to the NAHB.

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US Inflation Eased Ahead of Tariffs

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
March 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Inflation slowed to a 3-month low in February, with decreases in airfares and gasoline partially offsetting shelter increases. Despite the easing, the report does not capture upcoming tariff impacts. The inflationary pressure from tariffs and trade war would weigh on the economy and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, while housing drove nearly half of February’s inflation increase and remains higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.4%, it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a sixth straight month and posted its lowest annual gain since December 2021. While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited. …Consequently, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook.

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How Rising Costs Affect US Home Affordability

By Na Zhao
The NAHB Eye on Housing
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Housing affordability remains a critical issue, with 74.9% of US households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2025, according to NAHB’s latest analysis. With a median price of $459,826 and a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.5%, this translates to around 100.6 million households priced out of the market, even before accounting for further increases in home prices or interest rates. A $1,000 increase in the median price of new homes would price an additional 115,593 households out of the market. The 2024 priced-out estimates for all states and the District of Columbia and over 300 metropolitan statistical areas are shown in the interactive map below. It highlights the growing housing affordability challenges across the United States. In 23 states and the District of Columbia, over 80% of households are priced out of the median-priced new home market. This indicates a significant disconnect between rising home prices and household incomes.

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US Consumer Housing Sentiment Down Year over Year for First Time Since 2023

Fannie Mae
March 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

WASHINGTON, DC – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 1.8 points in February to 71.6, driven largely by consumers’ increased pessimism that mortgage rates will go down in the next year. The share of consumers who say it is a good time to buy a home inched up last month to 24%, while the share who say it is a good time to sell dipped to 62%. February also saw a notable decline in consumers’ optimism toward their personal financial situation, including household income and concern they could lose their job. Year over year, the HPSI is down 1.2 points. …Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “We continue to expect home sales activity to remain relatively light over our forecast horizon due to the ongoing lack of supply and overall unaffordability.”

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US homebuilders face a supply chain snarl from tariff battles

By Thomas Seal and Prashant Gopal
Bloomberg in The Business Times
March 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

President Trump’s push for tariffs on Canada – and his subsequent delays and exemptions – are frustrating efforts to import lumber from the country and putting the building supply market on edge. The back-and-forth over whether tariffs will be imposed or not has businesses unable to trust price stability, and risks backing up the supply chain for US homebuilders. The reluctance to pay a tariff, which could be changed or cancelled any day, “freezes these markets up,” according to Don Magruder, who runs a building material company based in Florida. …Andy Rielly, president of Rielly Lumber in British Columbia, said he’s been in talks with long-term customers on how to divvy up the extra costs, but not everyone has been able to strike deals. …The US’s National Association of Home Builders chairman Buddy Hughes said tariffs risk worsening housing affordability. …The US Lumber Coalition said that lumber prices are only a fraction of homebuilding costs.

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Why the US National Association of Home Builders is hyper focused on tariffs

By Vincent Salandro
Builder Online
March 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Trump administration is moving at a record pace on a varied list of priorities, but insiders hope a focus on housing will remain at the top of the agenda in 2025. With housing affordability a central focus, bills addressing zoning, permitting, workforce development, and taxes are taking shape. …Despite all these areas of concern, one concern looms largest – tariffs. Approximately 22% of the products used in the average home are imported from China, 70% of lumber used in construction is sourced from Canada, and Mexico is the largest provider of gypsum. …The NAHB has advocated for an exemption for building materials, and the association continues to engage in conversations with lawmakers about the harmful effects these tariffs could have on housing affordability. NAHB’s Karl Eckhart says “These Canadian and Mexican tariffs are going to have a direct and painful impact on the price to build a house.”

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Tariffs could raise prices for new homes—see how much more it could cost buyers

By Mike Winters
NBC Los Angeles
March 5, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump’s administration imposed new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico while increasing existing tariffs on goods from China, a move expected to raise prices for new homes, according to a recent CoreLogic report. That’s largely because tariffs affect essential home construction materials, including wood products, cement, steel, aluminum and appliances, so homebuilding costs are projected to rise. As a result, construction costs could increase by 4% to 6% over the next 12 months, adding roughly $17,000 to $22,000 to the sticker prices for new homes, according to CoreLogic. With the cost of a newly constructed home averaging around $422,000, these added expenses may further strain affordability for first-time homebuyers, the study says.

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Los Angelos Has Big Plans to Rebuild After the Fires. Good Luck Getting Insurance.

By Kevin T. Dugan
The Wall Street Journal
March 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US West

In her pop-art decorated office in the heart of Beverly Hills, real-estate broker Rochelle Maize got an early look at who would control the future of Pacific Palisades. It was eight days after the wildfires broke out— even then, the power of California’s insurance companies was becoming evident. Her clients buy and sell mansions in crown-jewel neighborhoods where listings bottom out around the single-digit millions. One client wanted to go ahead with a seven-figure purchase, risk be damned, even if he had to be self-insured—meaning he would proceed without a policy… The question for Los Angeles isn’t so much how to rebuild the Palisades, but who pays if it burns again. “Writing new policies doesn’t make any sense at this time,” State Farm General, California’s largest property insurer, wrote Tuesday to the state insurance commissioner. To shore up its finances, the company is seeking permission for a 22% rate increase for 1.2 million homeowners. [A paid subscription is required to read this article]

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Made-in-U.S.A. Lumber Futures Are Coming to Wall Street

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal in Yahoo!Finance
March 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

Lumber producers have migrated from Canada to the US South. Now lumber-futures trading is heading to the Southern pineries as well. The exchange operator CME Group said it would launch trading in Southern yellow pine futures on March 31, a response to rising export taxes on Canadian lumber. The futures contracts—ticker: SYP—will give the South’s loblolly planters, loggers, sawmills, pressure treaters and builders a mechanism to manage their exposure to price swings that is more in line with the local market than existing futures. …Traders and the exchange have for years discussed Southern yellow pine futures as the region’s production grew. Now that Northern lumber is a lot more expensive, they are saying the time is right. …Southern yellow pine doesn’t always work as a substitute for the Northern species favored by home builders. But executives said the growing price difference is prompting pockets of buyers to swap.

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