Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Finance & Economics

Lumber futures continue to fall, shed more that 20% in August

By Ryan Dezember
Wall Street Journal
September 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber prices, which shed more than 20% in August, have continued to fall to start September, hitting their lowest price this year thanks to a glut of wood that was piled up ahead of a big increase in duties on Canadian imports. “There has clearly been a speculative inventory accumulation at every level from mills to single location lumber dealers,” said Matt Layman, who publishes Layman’s Lumber Guide “For the first time in my 40-plus year career there is indeed a wall of wood that must be liquidated.” As with many raw materials, the lumber market has been whipsawed by President Trump’s tariff threats. The White House is studying tariffs on imported lumber in the name of national security. …Any lumber tariff will come on top of duties on Canadian softwood lumber that rose to about 35% for most producers, from 15% last year.  [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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Lumber Futures Prices Fall to Near 4-Month Low

Trading Economics
September 1, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell to $550 per thousand board feet in September, the lowest in nearly four months, amid softer demand for new home building and ample supply. US building permits fell 2.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.362 million, the lowest since June 2020. Although the market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, rates are expected to remain restrictive, and high inflation expectations are expected to support long-maturity yields, which dictate mortgage costs. Seasonal slowdown in construction is set to magnify the drop in housing construction. On the supply side, Canadian mills continue to push large volumes of surplus lumber into the US market, far exceeding actual demand and creating an oversupply situation. Additionally, ongoing tariff issues between the US and Canada add further uncertainty, as potential changes in trade policy could significantly affect US lumber prices.›

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Lumber futures on the brink of bear market territory as tariff-driven rally fizzles out

By Sinchita Mitra
Seeking Alpha
August 28, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures have come under strain after the initial tariff-driven upswing has fizzled out and the cracks in the housing market are beginning to show… retreating from an early August high of ~$695 per thousand board feet to about $560, a decline of nearly 19.5%, making it just shy of the 20% mark that would push it into a technical bear market. Lumber futures saw a surge driven by tariffs and optimism over lower interest rates, which pushed prices to their highest levels in more than three years. However, the enthusiasm soon faded away, as recent housing data disappointed, and builders scaled back due to higher input costs, weaker demand and looming affordability challenges. Housing affordability remains stretched even with potential rate cuts, requiring better wage growth or increased supply for meaningful improvement, according to Rafe Jadrosich, Senior US Homebuilders and Building Products analyst.

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US–Canada Lumber Dispute Intensifies with Massive Tariff Increase

By Audry Dixon
ResorceWise
August 26, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Industry leaders are urging the governments of Canada and the US to prioritize resolving the longstanding softwood lumber dispute after the US more than doubled lumber import duty rates. Construction costs are already rising for American builders, while housing affordability and worries about inflation remain. …The love-hate relationship the US has with Canadian softwood lumber took another turn last week, when the American Building Materials Alliance (ABMA) highlighted one more reason hiking duties on imports of Canadian softwood lumber is a problem for the US construction sector. …ABMA Chair Rod Wiles, a VP at Hammond Lumber Company, said: “Tariffs at this level send a clear signal that the status quo isn’t sustainable, and they can be a tool to bring both sides back to the table. The sooner we can achieve a fair agreement, the better it will be for the entire North American lumber supply chain.”

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What are the Prospects for Lumber Prices?

By Andrew Hecht
Barchart
August 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The United States is the top wood-importing country. Trade issues and tariffs could be a significant factor in determining the path of least resistance for lumber, lumber futures, and wood product prices over the coming weeks and months. …The offseason for lumber demand is on the horizon. The potential for increased price variance due to the uncertainty created by U.S.-Canada trade relations remains high, and the path of least resistance of U.S. short-term interest rates is likely to be lower. Time will tell if longer-term rates follow any Fed Rate cuts over the coming months. Lumber remains a critical construction material, and the current price levels offer a positive risk-reward profile. Accumulating lumber-related assets on a scale-down basis during periods of price weakness over the coming weeks and months could be optimal for 2026, provided the housing market improves and lumber demand rises. 

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Lumber prices are tumbling. Here’s what that means for the housing market now.

By Myra Saefong
Dow Jones in Morningstar
August 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber buyers placed unsuccessful bets on tariffs and interest rates Lumber prices have dropped by more than 14% from a record high in early August. Many home builders, contractors and retailers wagered that higher U.S. tariffs on imports would boost the cost of lumber, while lower interest rates would lift demand for the building material. But those bets have failed to pay off – and lumber prices have tallied a steep decline from a record high reached only three weeks ago. That price decline could lead to a drop in production at a time when home-building and housing demand starts to heat up. The demand component for spring 2025 was a “complete swing and a miss,” said Greg Kuta, at lumber broker Westline Capital Strategies. …On Tuesday, lumber futures for September delivery settled at $595.50 per thousand board feet. …Canadian mills are losing out with lumber prices well under the cost of production,” Kuta said.

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Lumber Future Prices Have Tumbled This Month

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
August 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures have dropped about 12% since hitting a three-year high two weeks ago, a sign that wood buyers stocked up before duties on Canadian two-by-fours more than doubled this month and that traders are worried about the U.S. housing market. Futures for September delivery fell to around $610 per thousand board feet late Friday and have declined in nine of the past 10 trading sessions. On-the-spot prices are also down, according to Random Lengths. …Jordan Rizzuto, chief investment officer at GammaRoad Capital Partners… said that besides indicating that lumber was piled high in U.S. lumberyards before the higher duties took effect, the whipsaw in wood prices is a warning sign for other asset classes. “Lumber’s price behavior over the past several weeks relative to countercyclical and defensive assets suggests potential weakening of new construction and cyclical sectors of the economy,” he said. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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Canadian housing starts rise 4% in July

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
August 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The six-month trend in housing starts increased (3.7%) in July (263,088 units), according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada. Actual housing starts were up 4% year-over-year in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater, with 23,464 units recorded in July, compared to 22,610 units in July 2024. The year-to-date total was 137,875, up 4% from the same period in 2024. The total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was up 4% in July (294,085 units) compared to June (283,523 units). Through the first seven months of the year, actual housing starts have remained above 2024 levels, primarily driven by increased multi-unit starts in the Prairie Provinces and Québec,” said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist.

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Lumber Futures Extend Price Decline

Trading Economics
August 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber futures fell toward $610 per thousand board feet, retreating from the May-2022 high of $695.5 seen August 1st as weakening demand, recovering supply and tariff-driven trade distortions jointly sapped pricing power. Demand has cooled sharply with US single-family starts slipping to an 11-month low and building permits plunging, a direct consequence of elevated mortgage rates that curbs the core market for lumber. On the supply side, sawmills remain under-utilized but production has stabilized and Canadian mills are ramping output off a curtailment-heavy base, Statistics Canada shows production and shipments recovering into mid-2025, keeping physical availability ample. Tariffs meant to restrict Canadian flows are, in this oversupplied environment, simply redirecting trade and encouraging inventory build rather than creating scarcity, so inventories remain high and limit upside even as duties rise.

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Green First Forest Products reports Q2, 2025 net loss of $9.6 million

GreenFirst Forest Products Inc.
August 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

TORONTO — GreenFirst Forest Products announced results for the second quarter and two quarters ended June 28, 2025. Highlights include: Q2 2025 net loss from continuing operations was $9.6 million, compared to net income of $0.9 million in Q1 2025. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for Q2 2025 was negative $5.2 million compared to positive $5.1 million in Q1 2025. …”Despite market uncertainty, we finished Q2 2025 with higher sales volumes compared to Q1 2025 – approximately 110,000 mfbm versus 90,000 mfbm,” said Joel Fournier, GreenFirst’s CEO. “On a positive note, GreenFirst set a new high during the quarter in terms of production records with volume reaching 115,000 mfbm, the highest in Company history for continuing operations.”

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Homebuilding costs, housing affordability in the spotlight as US raises lumber tariffs

Canadian Mortgage Professional
August 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The US Department of Commerce finalized a decision to more than double duties on Canadian softwood lumber. …Ontario ministers Kevin Holland, Mike Harris, and Vic Fedeli… warned “this decision ignores the real burdens duties impose on both sides of the border: reducing productivity, disrupting industry, driving up building costs and making housing less affordable for American families.” …According to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, tariffs on foreign construction materials have already added up to US$6,000 to the cost of building a single-family home in the United States since 2018. If current measures remain, the cost could rise by another US$14,000 by 2027. …“NAHB has been leading the fight against lumber tariffs because of their detrimental effect on housing affordability. In effect, the lumber tariffs act as a tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers,” the association stated.

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US Releases Final Countervailing Determination on Canadian Softwood Lumber

FEA – Forest Economic Advisors
August 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

On Friday, the US Department of Commerce released its final determinations for the sixth administrative review (AR6) of countervailing duties on certain softwood lumber products from Canada. This follows the publication of the AR6 antidumping duties on July 29. The period of review is January 1, 2023, through December 31, 2023. The final rates—slightly higher than the preliminary rates published earlier this year—are summarized in the table:

These rates will take effect once they are published in the Federal Register, expected within approximately one week. At that point, total deposits on Canadian lumber shipments to the US will increase from the current 27.30% to 35.19%. FEA will publish the final notice when it becomes available. From last year’s fifth administrative review (AR5) to AR6, combined duties will have increased from 14.40% to 35.19%.

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Interfor reports Q2, 2025 net earnings of $11.1 million

Interfor Corporation
August 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

BURNABY, BC — Interfor recorded net earnings in Q2’25 of $11.1 million compared to a net loss of $35.1 million in Q1’25 and a net loss of $75.8 million Q2’24. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.2 million on sales of $780.5 million in Q2’25 versus Adjusted EBITDA of $48.6 million on sales of $735.5 million in Q1’25 and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $16.7 million on sales of $771.2 million in Q2’24. …North American lumber markets over the near term are expected to remain volatile as the economy continues to adjust to changing monetary policies, tariffs, labour shortages and geo-political uncertainty. …Overall, the Company is well positioned to navigate this volatility with a diversified product mix in Canada and the US, with approximately 60% of its total lumber produced and sold within the US Ultimately, only about 25% of the Company’s total lumber production is exported from Canada to the U.S. and exposed to duties and any potential tariff.

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Conifex Timber reports Q2, 2025 net loss of $8.3 million

Conifex Timber Inc.
August 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER, BC — Conifex Timber reported results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. EBITDA was negative $3.2 million for the quarter compared to EBITDA of $4.9 million in the first quarter of 2025 and negative $7.1 million in the second quarter of 2024. Net loss was $8.3 million for the quarter versus net income of $0.6 million in the previous quarter and net loss of $9.7 million in the second quarter of 2024. …Lumber production in the second quarter of 2025 totalled approximately 35.3 million board feet, representing operating rates of approximately 59% of annualized capacity. Second quarter production was negatively impacted by operating the sawmill on a four-day configuration, necessitated by reduced log availability.

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Taiga Building Products reports Q2, 2025 net earnings of $15.1 million

Taiga Building Products Ltd.
Cision Newswire
August 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

BURNABY, BC — Taiga Building Products reported its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025. The Company’s sales for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 were $441.0 million compared to $427.8 million over the same period last year. The increase in sales by $13.1 million or 3% was largely due to a higher average pricing as well as product mix over the quarter.  Net earnings for the quarter increased to $15.1 million from $13.9 million over the same period last year primarily due to increased gross margin dollars. …The Company’s consolidated net sales for the six months ended June 30, 2025 were $840.9 million compared to $821.5 million over the same period last year.  Net earnings for the six months decreased to $24.9 million from $26.7 million.

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Ontario records low housing starts, even with new ways of counting them

By Simon Tuck
The National Post
August 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

OTTAWA — Canada’s housing crisis may get worse before it starts to show much relief, as new projections say that the number of housing starts will actually decrease this year and next. These new estimates, from both public and private sector housing forecasts, contradict political promises from all levels of government to boost supply of homes across the country. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) forecasts that the total number of housing starts in Canada this year will be about 237,800, down from 245,367 in 2024. CMHC, a Crown corporation that acts as Canada’s national housing agency, also forecasts a drop to no more than 227,734 next year and 220,016 in 2027. Those forecasts are all below the 267,000 annual output for housing starts from 2021-22 and less than half the 480,000 that the CMHC says Canada needs to add each year over the next decade.

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U.S. construction spending falls 2.2% through July, led by drop in residential sector

US Census Bureau
September 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Construction spending in the United States reached $1,232.7 billion during the first seven months of 2025, a 2.2% decrease from $1,259.9 billion in the same period of 2024. Residential construction accounted for $524.7 billion, down 4.0%, while nonresidential construction declined 0.8% to $707.9 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Private construction dropped 3.8% year-to-date to $946.5 billion. …Public construction increased 3.8% to $286.2 billion over the same period. …For the month of July 2025, construction spending was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, down 0.1% from June and 2.8% below July 2024. Private sector construction decreased 0.2% from the previous month, while public construction rose 0.3%.

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US consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, moving down about 6% from July

By Joanne Hsu, Director
The University of Michigan
September 2, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, moving down about 6% from July. Sentiment now stands about 11% above readings from April and May but remains at least 10% below 6 and 12 months ago. This month’s decrease was visible across groups by age, income, and stock wealth. Moreover, perceptions of many aspects of the economy slipped. …Expectations for business conditions and labor markets contracted in August as well. That said, expectations for personal finances held steady this month, albeit at relatively subdued levels relative to a year ago. …Year-ahead inflation expectations moved up from 4.5% last month to 4.8% this month. This rise was seen across multiple demographic groups. …This month ended two consecutive months of receding inflation for short-run expectations and three straight months for long-run expectations. Still, both readings remain well below the highs seen briefly in April and May 2025.

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US Wood-Framed Home Share Increased in 2024

By Jing Fu
NAHB Eye on Housing
August 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Wood framing continues to dominate the US single-family home construction market, according to NAHB analysis of 2024 Census Bureau data. In 2024, wood framing accounted for 94% of all completed single-family homes, reinforcing its position as the leading construction method. Concrete-framed homes represented 5% of completions, while steel-framed homes remained relatively rare, comprising less than half a percent of the market. On a count basis, approximately 959,000 wood-framed homes were completed in 2024. This was a 3% increase compared to the 2023 total. This growth also marked a rebound in market share, with wood-framed market share rising from 93% in 2023 to 94% in 2024. Steel-framed homes, while still uncommon, experienced notable growth. About 4,000 steel-framed homes were completed in 2024, representing a 33% increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, concrete-framed homes saw a decline. Their market share decreased from 7% in 2023 to 5% in 2024. On a count basis, 55,000 concrete-framed homes were completed in 2024, a 15% decrease compared to the prior year.

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U.S. lumber futures erase tariff gains, hint at housing slowdown

By Ole Hansen
SAXO Bank A/S, Denmark
August 27, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US lumber futures are back under pressure after a short-lived tariff-driven rally, and the reversal may be telling a broader story about the health of the housing market. Last month, futures spiked when the US announced a sharp increase in duties on Canadian softwood lumber. …What followed was a classic case of hoarding-induced overshoot: once the front-loading of demand ended, trading volumes thinned and prices quickly reversed. The first-month contract has now slumped 17.3% from its 1 August peak. …Uncertainty about how tariffs will be applied is keeping buyers cautious. At the same time, sticky to rising inflation continues to squeeze household budgets, while the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts remains unclear. …That makes lumber’s slump more than a quirk of tariff policy—it may be the canary in the coal mine. If prices continue to lag despite a tariff regime designed to support them, it would underscore just how fragile underlying building activity really is.

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Powell Appears to Signal Rate Cuts Due to Evolving Circumstances

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
August 22, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Federal Reserve Chair Powell gave a mostly green light for monetary policy easing in September. Noting that inflation remains elevated, Powell stated that “the balance of risks appears to be shifting.” …The implication of this observation is that easing is in view for monetary policy given the Fed’s dual mandate of maintaining both price stability and full employment. Markets expect a cut in September. Powell detailed an important point for the housing demand, that the labor market has avoided large job losses due to policy tightening and the economy has shown “resilience.” The Fed chair also indicated that inflation pressure is now in the data from tariffs, including a rise in goods prices. …Moreover, some of the pressure from tariffs is being relaxed as trade deals are arranged and de-escalations of some trade tensions are undertaken. Canada’s drop of retaliatory trade actions against the US is a good example.

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US New and Existing Homes Remain Largely Unaffordable in Second Quarter

By Rose Quint
NAHB Eye on Housing
August 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

While new homes remain largely unaffordable, builder efforts to improve housing affordability paid dividends in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest data from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index (CHI). The CHI results from the second quarter of 2025 show that a family earning the nation’s median income of $104,200 needed 36% of its income to cover the mortgage payment on a median-priced new home. Low-income families, defined as those earning only 50% of median income, would have to spend 71% of their earnings to pay for the same new home. …The second quarter of 2025 marked the largest historical gap where existing home prices exceeded those of new homes. …The percentage of a family’s income needed to purchase a new home was unchanged at 36% from the first to the second quarter, while the low-income CHI fell from 72% to 71% over the same period.

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Higher softwood lumber prices could lead to increased demand for hardwood pallets

By Antonio Gallotta
RISI Fastmarkets
August 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Economic uncertainty has clouded the pallet market outlook, as July’s job report revealed weaker-than-expected job growth. The elimination of the de minimis tariff exemption for low-value shipments is expected to improve pallet demand. Anticipated interest rate cuts will have a knock-on effect on housing affordability, stimulating the construction sector which in turn impacts lumber prices. …As pallet usage has grown, softwood has become the dominant material used in pallet manufacturing due to its abundance and cost-effectiveness. Hardwood mills were hit hard, and many saw closures, after the Chinese property market collapsed as that was its biggest end-use market. This Canadian softwood lumber supply shock does certainly leave the door open for the hardwood pallet to regain some market share. Supply and demand indicators are pointing to higher prices towards the end of 2025 and into 2026.

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Growth for Custom Home Building Amid Single-family Weakness

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
August 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

NAHB’s analysis indicates year-over year growth for custom home builders amid broader single-family home building weakness. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices. With spec home building down and the stock market up, custom building is gaining market share. There were 54,000 total custom building starts during the second quarter of 2025. This was up 4% relative to the second quarter of 2024. Over the last four quarters, custom housing starts totaled 184,000 homes, just more than a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (180,000).  Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is approximately 19% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% recent peak rate at the beginning of 2023.

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US Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
August 18, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic and ongoing supply-side challenges continued to act as a drag on builder confidence in August, as sentiment levels remain in a holding pattern at a low level. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in August, down one point from July, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months and has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 and 34 since May. …In further signs of a soft housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August down from 38% in July. This share has remained at 37% or 38% for the past three months. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell one point in August to a level of 35 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 43. 

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US Housing Starts Rise to Five-Month High, Led by Multifamily

By Max Sexton
Mortgage Professional America Magazine
August 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Boosted by a surge in the multifamily sector, US housing starts saw a sizeable jump in July, posting the highest total of starts since February. Housing completions were also up in July, while building permits were down. According to the numbers released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday, overall housing starts totaled 1.428 million in July, up 5.2% from June and 12.9% above July 2024. It was the highest number of overall starts since February’s 1.490 million. The sector was paced by buildings with five or more units, which had 470,000 starts in July, up from 421,000 in June. This is the highest total of multifamily starts in more than a year. Single-family housing starts were also up, coming in at 939,000 for July. This reflects a 2.8% increase month over month; however, totals are still low compared to most months over the last year. …Odeta Kushi, at First American, said the single-family housing starts numbers are concerning.

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US building material prices climb as inflation pressures mount

By Jesse Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
August 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Prices for residential building materials rose again in July, marking the largest year-over-year increase in over two years. The underlying price growth trend remained the same, with service prices continuing to grow at a faster pace than goods prices. Similar to last month, parts for construction machinery and metal molding/trim experienced significant price growth, as both increased over 25% compared to last year. Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—rose 0.2% in July, following a 0.8% increase in June. These figures are taken from the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The inputs to the new residential construction price index grew 2.8% from July of last year. The index can be broken into two components­—the goods component increased 2.4% over the year, while services increased 3.3%. 

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US Consumer Sentiment Fell About 5% in August Due to Unemployment and Inflation Expectations

The University of Michigan
August 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment fell back about 5% in August, declining for the first time in four months. This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation. Buying conditions for durables plunged 14%, its lowest reading in a year, on the basis of high prices. Current personal finances declined modestly amid growing concerns about purchasing power. In contrast, expected personal finances inched up a touch along with a slight firming in income expectations, which remain subdued. Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused. However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future. …Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.5% last month to 4.9% this month… Long-run inflation expectations also lifted from 3.4% in July to 3.9% in August. 

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Industry pros seek lumber market stability — tariffs, duties and grading rules are ratcheting up pricing pressure.

By Francis Palasieski, American Building Materials Alliance
HBS Dealer
August 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Francis Palasieski

Canadian lumber duties just jumped to 35.19%. …When Canadian prices rise, US mills often raise their own prices in response. …This market behavior reduces negotiating room for dealers and tightens margins no matter where the lumber originates. …There is a prevailing trend unfolding where more architectural and engineering specifications are calling for Canadian SPF. The reason is not quality but differences in grading rules and design values. Canadian SPF and American SPFs are graded differently and are not interchangeable under many construction specifications. This means that when a project specifies Canadian SPF, dealers must supply it to meet the requirement. …The American Building Materials Alliance (ABMA) supports a negotiated resolution to the lumber dispute that addresses unfair trade practices while ensuring stable supply and predictable pricing. …Our outlook is that the current 35.19% duty rate when combined with the preference for Canadian SPF over American SPFs will keep price pressure high.

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US June Single-Family Permits Slumps, Multifamily Gains

By Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington
NAHB Eye on Housing
August 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US Single-family housing permits continued a downhill trend for the sixth month in a row. The continuous decline in single-family permits highlights persistently weak housing demand, tied to affordability challenges like high mortgage rates. Builders appear cautious amid economic uncertainty, labor constraints, and rising inventories. The uptick in multi-family permits suggests a potentially stabilizing trend, though it’s important to note its volatility. The housing market’s mixed signals—weak single-family coupled with some resilience in multi-family—could mean continued drag on residential investment and the broader economy this year. Over the first six months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 485,935. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 5.6% over the June 2024 level of 514,728. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 244,812. This is 2.9% higher compared to the June 2024 level of 237,935.

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NAHB Spotlights Housing Affordability Issues at National and Local Level

National Association of Home Builders
August 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Housing affordability remains a prominent issue, with the median home of a new home at roughly $460,000 and 70% of U.S. households unable to afford a $400,000 home. Tight inventory continues to push up prices for existing homes — which have surpassed the cost of new homes as home builders adapt to affordability challenges by building on smaller lots, constructing smaller homes and offering incentives. Even with these adaptations, though, regulations tie in heavily to the cost of new homes and account for nearly 24% of the average final new home price. Permitting and building codes play a role in these costs, as does financing and interest rates.

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US Economy Rebounded in Second Quarter

By Jing Fu
NAHB – Eye on Housing
August 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Real GDP growth rebounded in the second quarter, driven by a turnaround in the trade balance and stronger consumer spending. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025, following a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. The latest data from the GDP report suggests that inflationary pressures are easing. The GDP price index rose 2.0% for the second quarter, down from a 3.8% increase in the first quarter of 2025. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, rose 2.1% in the second quarter. This is down from a 3.7% increase in the first quarter of 2025. This quarter’s increase in real GDP primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and increases in consumer spending.

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What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy

By Ilena Peng
Bloomberg Economics
August 14, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Box demand touches nearly every industry, from flat-screen TVs to packaged food, all of which see sales fluctuate based on how flush shoppers feel. …Sales of corrugated cardboard used to make boxes are slumping, signaling that retail demand across industries may be due for a correction. US box shipments fell to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, with companies like International Paper Co. and Smurfit Westrock Plc reporting drops in box shipments. The drop in packaging demand appears to be tied to President Donald Trump’s mixed messaging on tariffs, with companies not stocking up on packaging while they wait to find out how the levies will affect costs and demand. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]

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US paper industry announces 2024 paper recycling rates

Pulp Paper News
August 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US mills consumed more recycled paper in 2024 compared to 2023 while exports decrease. The American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) recently announced its annual paper recycling rates, with 60%-64% of paper and 69%-74% of cardboard available for recovery being recycled in the United States in 2024. Paper continues to be one of the highest recycled materials in America, supported by successful recycling systems throughout the country. In 2024 alone, 46 million tons of paper was recycled in the U.S., which equates to 125,000 tons of recycled paper being turned into new, essential products like cardboard boxes, paper packaging, and toilet paper every day. …US mills used 1.29 million more tons of recycled paper to make new products in 2024 – that’s 32.7 million tons compared to 31.3 million tons in 2023.

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Foundation Types in 2024: Slabs Continue to Rise, Crawl Spaces Decline

By Catherine Koh
NAHB Eye on Housing
August 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In 2024, 73% of new single-family homes started were built on slab foundations, according to NAHB analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC). Although this was a modest year-over-year increase of 0.6 percentage points, it continues the upward trend in slab adoption, widening the gap between slabs and other foundation types. In comparison, basements (full or partial) accounted for 17% of new homes, while crawl spaces made up just 9.2%.

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Trump administration eyeing IPOs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this year, US official says

By Niket Nishant, Manya Saini and Andrea Shalal
Reuters
August 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

US President Trump’s administration could kick off initial public offerings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac later this year, according to a senior administration official, marking a key milestone for the mortgage finance giants that have been under government control for years. The share sales could value Fannie and Freddie at nearly $500 billion combined, the official said. The deal would be an important turning point for the companies, which have been under federal conservatorship since 2008. The administration has been talking to banks about the potential share sale but has not formally appointed one to lead the process. Fannie and Freddie were created by Congress to support the housing market by ensuring affordable mortgage financing, but crumbled after being severely bruised during the financial crisis. …Over the years, efforts to return them to private control have continued, including under Trump’s first term, but have failed to get traction.

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US Consumers to Bear Brunt of Tariff Hit, Goldman Economists Say

By Matthew Thomas
Bloomberg Markets
August 11, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The impact of President Trump’s tariffs on consumer prices is just getting started, according to research by Goldman Sachs Group, adding more uncertainty to a Treasury market that has been gripped by shifting bets on the pace of interest rate cuts. US companies have so far taken the bulk of the hit but the burden will increasingly be passed on to consumers as companies hike prices, economists including Jan Hatzius wrote. Consumers in the US have absorbed an estimated 22% of tariff costs through June, but their share will rise to 67% if the latest tariffs follow the pattern of levies in previous years, they wrote. The net result: faster inflation. The core personal consumer expenditure index, one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite measures of inflation, will hit 3.2% year-on-year in December. They said underlying inflation net of tariffs would be 2.4%. The rate was 2.8% in June.

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Trex Company reports Q2, 2025 sales increase of 3%

Trex Company
August 4, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

WINCHESTER, Virginia — Trex Company announced financial results for the Q2 2025. Notwithstanding adverse weather conditions, net sales for the Q2 2025 increased by 3% year-over-year, totaling $388 million, compared to $376 million in the prior-year period. …Gross profit was $158 million compared to gross profit of $168 million in last year’s Q2. Net income was $76 million compared to $87 million reported in the Q2 2024. …CEO Bryan Fairbanks said, “This unique positioning is the result of decades of relationship-building with our channel partners and is an integral part of our strategy to market our broad portfolio of Trex-branded products wherever consumers are making their decking and railing choices. …Trex Company, Inc. is the world’s largest manufacturer of wood-alternative decking and residential railing products.

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Evidence from sawmill closures in Michigan between 2019 and 2023

By Basanta Lamsal, Jagdish Poudel and Raju Pokharel
Science Direct, Forest Policy and Economics
August 25, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

This study investigates the economic impact of sawmill entry and exits in Michigan between 2019 and 2023, a period marked by ongoing structural changes in the industry, including the closure of several large mills and the opening of smaller or mid-sized operations. Using observed employment changes… we applied an employment-based multiplier analysis to estimate how net sawmill job losses affected the statewide economy. The results show that while only 273 direct jobs were lost due to net changes from sawmill entry and exit during this period, the broader ripple effects were much larger, approximately 820 jobs and $211 million in output loss. These effects were most pronounced in labor-intensive sectors such as logging and transportation, as well as in downstream sectors like wholesale trade and real estate. The findings highlight the central role of sawmills in regional supply chains and states labor markets, with two-thirds of job losses occurring outside the mills themselves.

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Nordic timber industry faces cost pressures and market volatility in H1 2025

By Sanjoy Narayan
RISI Fastmarkets
August 21, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: International

Six of the major Nordic timber and forest industry companies posted largely challenging results for the first half of 2025. Most companies reported declining profitability despite mixed sales performances. …High raw materials costs continue to pressure margins universally, with multiple companies stating that current wood prices are unsustainable for long-term industry profitability. Companies with integrated value chains demonstrated significantly greater resilience in this challenging environment. Global trade tensions and increasing tariffs have created substantial market uncertainty, while currency volatility – particularly the rapid strengthening of SEK against USD – has severely impacted export-oriented operations.  …The industry outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains cautiously managed. The recovery in European construction markets continues to be slower than anticipated, while global trade policy uncertainties are expected to persist. Companies with integrated value chains, diversified product portfolios, and recent strategic investments appear best positioned to navigate the complex market conditions. 

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