It’s been over a week since the U.S. Commerce Department confirmed that it’s nearly tripling its anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber imports from 7.66% to 20.56% following its annual review. The response from north of the border has been apoplectic, to say the least. …In the US, several entities are worried about the hiked duties, too. The NAHB continues to sound the alarm that new duties will raise the cost of homebuilding. …”We are also urging the administration to move immediately to enter into negotiations with Canada on a new softwood lumber agreement.” …The US Lumber Coalition continues to be the loudest voice in the room in favor. …”Canada continues its relentless shipments of dumped and subsidized lumber with devastating consequences for mills, workers, and communities.” …The downstream effects of all these trade war machinations remain to be seen, though the cross-border lumber trade has already slowed down considerably.
Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened in June to C$5.9 billion as imports grew faster than exports due to a one-time high-value oil equipment import. The deficit observed in June is the second highest on record after the deficit expanded to its largest in history in April to C$7.6 billion, when the impact of US tariffs first started to weigh. Canada’s exports to the US as a share of total exports shrank to 70% in June from 83% in the same period a year ago while its surplus with the US contracted by a half in the same period, data showed. Total imports were up 1.4% in June to C$67.6 billion from a drop of 1.6% in the prior month, Statistics Canada said. Canada’s total exports grew 0.9% in June to C$61.74 billion following an increase of 2% in May, led primarily by an increase in crude oil exports.
Lumber futures hit their highest price in three years Friday despite a home-building slump and a lackluster remodeling market. Though wood demand is tepid, traders are pricing in dramatically higher duties on lumber imports from Canada. Lumber futures for September delivery hit $695 per thousand board feet Friday, up 39% from a year ago and the highest price since summer 2022, when the price of two-by-fours was tumbling down from its pandemic surge. November futures are trading even higher, around $710. The US raised its antidumping duty Tuesday to nearly 21% from 7.7%… [and] The Commerce Department said it would impose a higher countervailing duty in the coming days. The combined rate is expected to be around 35%. …”We don’t make a tremendous amount of money on distributing lumber,” Builders FirstSource CEO Peter Jacksons told investors. “We’re not eating a 20-point increase in lumber. It’s not possible. So it will be passed through. The market will adapt.” [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
VANCOUVER, BC — 
NEW YORK, NY -‑ Mercer International reported second quarter 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, net loss was $86.1 million compared to $67.6 million in the same quarter of 2024 and $22.3 million in the first quarter of 2025. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, Chief Executive Officer, stated: “Our operating results for the second quarter of 2025 reflect the impacts of ongoing uncertainties in the global trade environment coupled with the resulting weaker dollar. This challenging backdrop contributed to weaker demand for pulp in China during the quarter. …Our lumber sales realizations in both the U.S. and Europe increased in the second quarter of 2025 as a result of lower supply and steady demand.
Canada’s pension funds have more than $1tn invested in the United States, and that figure could grow by $100bn or more annually, said Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister responsible for US trade, during a visit to Washington. …Financial Post reported that LeBlanc made the comments in response to questions about whether US President Donald Trump might request specific commitments on Canadian investment as part of trade talks. The US has offered increased foreign investment as a possible pathway to improved trade terms. …Despite the potential growth in US exposure, LeBlanc said the federal government would not direct pension managers to increase their holdings or participate in specific American projects as a condition for reduced tariffs. Canada’s pension funds are already deeply integrated into US markets.
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. …The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027. CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. …Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%.
I am surprised at how President Trump is gradually succeeding in his goal. …Canada, along with China, is the only country standing up to the US, but it is inevitable that if no agreement is reached, the chances of a recession will increase. …Canada needs the US to avoid the worst, but the point of the article is different: how much does the US need Canada? My impression is that this issue is often underestimated. …We don’t need their lumber. But is that really the case? …Why Canadian lumber is essential. …The first and probably most important reason is that US forests are mainly privately owned (by companies or families). …Becoming less dependent on Canada is extremely complicated for the US due to the usual logistical challenges. …This industry has been in gradual decline for decades, and wanting to save it in order to be less dependent on Canada is a waste of resources.
The U.S. Commerce Department has announced it is nearly tripling its anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber imports from 7.66% to 20.56% following its annual review of existing tariffs. The anti-dumping duties are in addition to current countervailing duties set at 6.74%, which would bring the total lumber duties above 27%. However, the countervailing duty rate is expected to move higher on Aug. 8. Commerce issued a preliminary determination on countervailing duties earlier this year that would raise the countervailing duty rate to 14.38%. Moreover, President Trump’s Section 232 [investigation] could result in higher lumber tariffs. …For years, NAHB has been leading the fight against lumber tariffs because of their detrimental effect on housing affordability. In effect, the lumber tariffs act as a tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers. …We are also urging the administration to move immediately to enter into negotiations with Canada on a new softwood lumber agreement that will… eliminate tariffs altogether.
The US Lumber Coalition (USLC) has aggressively promoted strong enforcement of US trade laws and railed against “unfair Canadian trade practices.” …The USLC’s arguments have been challenged by a pair of Canadian independent consultants — Russ Taylor Global and Spar Tree Group:
OTTAWA—Home buyers and builders in Canada are in retreat, adding to the woes of an economy struggling under the weight of President Trump’s tariffs. Housing helped spur growth in Canada just prior to, and after the worst of, the Covid-19 pandemic. …Data this month indicated existing-home sales climbed modestly for three straight months as of June. But economists and real estate agents are far from convinced it signals recovery after a tariff-fueled slowdown. They note the sales rebound was the result of sellers cutting their listing price. Housing affordability remains stretched in Canada, according to the Bank of Canada data. …For builders, prices for new homes are failing to cover higher costs for labor, loans and taxes and fees set at the municipal level. The Canadian Home Builders’ Association said its own confidence index is at historically pessimistic levels. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
As a tariff storm blew in from south of the border earlier this year, many industries in Canada, including the home building sector, feared the unknown ahead of them. With stakeholders already keenly aware of the need to rapidly scale up housing supply and improve Canada’s housing affordability gap, blanket tariffs and more targeted material-specific levies meant additional unwelcome obstacles to overcome. That included a potential need to slow down the pace of construction as supply chains shifted and key construction parts became more expensive. …About six months after US President Trump’s return to the White House, many in the home construction sector say unpredictability persists around the cost and timing of obtaining the materials they need. For Geranium Homes, a residential developer in southern Ontario, that’s meant having to pivot on the fly when it comes to the supply chains it’s long relied on.
VANCOUVER, BC
A CUSMA Chapter 10 binational panel remanded [for further explanation] two statistical methodologies in the US Department of Commerce’s Administrative Review 1 antidumping duty determination on Canadian softwood lumber, requiring Commerce to reassess its use of the Cohen’s d test and to apply weighted pooled variances in its meaningful-difference analysis according to the panel’s Decision and Order. …The panel affirmed all other aspect of the results challenged in this appeal…The review stems from a December 22, 2020 request by Resolute Forest Products and the Ontario Forest Industries Association. …The panel remanded Commerce’s application of Cohen’s d because the Federal Circuit’s decision in Marmen Inc. v. United States Wind Tower Trade Coalition requires that the test’s key assumptions, normal data distribution, equal variances and adequate sample size, be demonstrated before use. …The panel also remanded Commerce’s pooling of variances, directing the Department to use weighted pooled variances that reflect differing sample sizes. …Commerce must respond by October 20, 2025.
Lumber markets remained flat this week as vacation time, industry gatherings, sweltering heat and general economic uncertainty contributed to sluggish sales. Minimal immediate needs limited replenishment purchases to modest volumes while a lack of clarity regarding near-term prospects stifled speculative trading across North American framing lumber markets. 2×4 led gains in many species, but the increases were modest. Seasonal factors, including unusually heavy rainfall and normal summer heat, contributed to the ongoing sluggish pace across the South. Mills worked hard to capture modest premiums. The coming hike in duties on Canadian shipments to the US did little to alter the ongoing lack of urgency among buyers. …Sales of Western S-P-F were governed by tepid demand and uncertainty regarding the timing and scope of higher duties and potential tariffs. …Sales in the Coast region were lukewarm with most lumber markets trends holding. 
Lumber futures traded above $680 per thousand board feet, approaching the two-and-a-half-year peak of $685 recorded on March?24th, driven by a squeeze on supply meeting unfaltering construction demand. On the demand front, US housing starts held surprisingly steady at an annualized 1.6?million units in June even as existing-home sales slipped 2.7% to a nine-month low, ensuring that framing requirements remained robust. At the same time, US softwood lumber tariffs on Canadian imports continue to add roughly 9% to landed costs, while Pacific Northwest mills have withdrawn nearly 20% of regional capacity for mid-season maintenance, sharply curtailing shipments to distributors. Internationally, imports from Europe and New?Zealand are throttled by 25% duties on Russian lumber and persistent ocean-freight bottlenecks, collectively depleting distributor inventories to their lowest levels in more than two years and reinforcing today’s sharp advance in futures prices. [END]
President Trump’s tariffs could have an unintended side effect: making homeownership even less affordable for many Americans. A new report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates that the average cost of building a US home could rise by an additional $14,000 by the end of 2027 if tariffs on Canadian imports remain in place, even as many experts estimate that America needs millions more affordable homes. In 2023 alone, Canada accounted for 69% of US lumber imports, 25% of imported iron and steel and 18% of copper imports, all key construction materials, the report said. The White House pushed back on the assertion that tariffs would increase costs for Americans. …The report underscores that Trump’s tariff policy, intended to support American industry, may instead worsen housing affordability. Taking into account tariffs first imposed during Trump’s first term, the total added cost from tariffs could reach $20,000 per home by 2027, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce found.
During April’s election campaign, the Carney government promised to double the pace of homebuilding in Canada by 2035—an unlikely outcome in light of Canada’s shortage of construction workers and investment dollars. But even if homebuilding were miraculously doubled, it would not solve Canada’s housing affordability crisis. That’s the sobering conclusion of a recent 
Lumber futures traded above $650 per thousand board feet, hovering near April highs driven by tightening US sawmill output and dwindling import volumes, both of which are near their lowest levels in half a decade. Domestic production in the first quarter slipped year-on-year, and imports, including softwood lumber from Canada, have contracted sharply, leaving US framing material availability at its leanest since 2019. At the same time, builders are contending with looming tariff hikes that could push duties on Canadian lumber from roughly 14.5% today toward the mid-30s, adding several thousand dollars to the cost of new homes. Although a modest pull-back in construction activity has softened recent gains, overall demand remains sufficient to absorb current supply, and without a rapid expansion in US mill capacity or alternative sourcing, these supply constraints, compounded by rising trade barriers, are likely to sustain upward pressure on lumber prices in the months ahead.
US and Chinese negotiators have agreed in principle to push back the deadline for escalating tariffs, although America’s representatives said any extension would need Donald Trump’s approval. Officials from both sides said after two days of talks in Stockholm that while had failed to find a resolution across the many areas of dispute they had agreed to extend a pause due to run out on 12 August. Beijing’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, said the extension of a truce struck in mid-May would allow for further talks, without specifying when and for how long the latest pause would run. However, the US trade representative Jamieson Greer stressed that President Trump would have the “final call” on any extension. …Trump is on course to impose extra tariffs on Mexico and Canada from Friday, barring last-minute deals.
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An earlier post described how the top 10 builders
In the second quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 59, down four points compared to the previous quarter. While this reading is still in positive territory, some remodelers, especially in the West, are seeing a slowing of activity in their markets. The second-quarter reading of 59 marks only the second time the RMI has dipped below 60 since the survey was revised in the first quarter of 2020. Higher interest rates and general economic uncertainty have affected consumer confidence and are headwinds for remodeling, but not to the extent that they have been for single-family construction, as is evident in June’s negative reading from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Marketing Index (HMI). As a result, NAHB is still forecasting solid gains for remodeling spending in 2025, followed by more modest, but still positive, growth in 2026. …The Current Conditions Index averaged 66, down five points from the previous quarter. 
Economists, researchers and analysts have warned that President Trump’s tariffs on most goods will deliver a taxing blow to consumers via higher prices. However, recent months’ economic data has shown that overall inflation has remained fairly tame. Trump touts the positive economic reports as signs that tariffs are working. However, the chorus of concern is growing: Prices are moving higher, and economists say this is just the beginning. Here’s a look at the mechanisms behind why price hikes, and hotter inflation, are a slow burn: Tariffs have been applied in a staggered manner; …Trade policy and tariffs are in flux; …Shipping takes time; …Domestic supply chains take time, too; …Inventories were loaded up before tariffs hit; …Some costs are being eaten; …Businesses are hesitant to pass on higher prices; …Awareness of goods prices is lower in summer than fall and winter; …Economic data is often lagged; …Inflation indices are comprehensive.
The top ten builders captured a record 44.7% of all new US single-family home closings in 2024, up 2.4 percentage points from 2023 (42.3%). This is the highest share ever captured by the top ten builders since NAHB began tracking BUILDER magazine data on new single-family home closings in 1989. The 2024 share constitutes 306,932 closings out of 686,000 new single-family houses sold in 2024. However, closings by the top 10 builders only represent 30.1% of new single-family home completions, a wider measure of home building that covers not-for-sale home construction. Also of note, the top 15 builders accounted for more than half of all closings (51%) for the first time ever in 2024.
WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its June 2025 
Lumber from Canada? That will be another $534. Major appliances from China? Add a cool $445. New homes in the United States are set to get more expensive thanks to President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which is expected to raise the costs of a wide variety of materials that go into building houses. An NBC News analysis of building materials and import data found that the total cost of building a mid-range single-family home could rise by more than $4,000 — an estimate that industry experts who reviewed the analysis called conservative. An April survey from the National Association of Home Builders estimated tariff impacts at $10,900 per home. Neither analysis included labor costs. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, said the tariffs have an impact beyond their direct cost as they send uncertainty rippling through the supply chain and leave builders unsure how to plan for the future.
New Zealand has a strong story to tell about free trade, farming and renewable forestry resources. …Given the healthy relationship between the US and New Zealand on the trade front, the temporary relief of tariffs on timber and lumber imported into the US has been welcomed. Though we realise that this tariff exemption could be short lived based on the outcome of the Section 232 investigation aimed at determining the global effects imports of timber, lumber and their derivative products have on the US supply chain. As a small niche supplier of wood products that are needed by the US domestic building market, there is a strong argument for keeping New Zealand timber and lumber imports tariff free to avoid any additional price hikes and further supply chain disruptions. …Like many, we now wait for completion of the section. 232 Investigation.
Congressional Republicans have passed their domestic policy bill that makes sweeping changes to entitlement programs like Medicaid and SNAP, significantly increases funding for immigration enforcement efforts and cuts funding for a number of environmental programs. …In Oregon, the impacts of the legislation will be significant. An analysis …found the state would be disproportionately hit by the cuts to Medicaid. The Senate’s version of the bill would also cut funds to the state’s timber counties, and could reshape Oregonian college tuition and student loans. …Oregon will see more logging, less timber money going to local communities and less support for private forest owners. …However much more is logged, Oregon counties will not get a cut. That’s a change from current practice. Many counties in rural areas rely on a cut of revenues from timber sales on federal public lands to pay for schools, law enforcement and public infrastructure.
Japan’s housing starts fell 15.6% year-on-year in June 2025, slightly better than market expectations of a 15.8% drop and easing from May’s sharp 34.4% plunge—the steepest since September 2009. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline but the mildest in the sequence, as contractions slowed across key categories: owned (-16.4% vs -30.9%), rented (-14.0% vs -30.5%), built-for-sale (-17.9% vs -43.8%), and two-by-four homes (-5.7% vs -26.4%). On the other hand, prefabricated housing starts declined slightly more (-9.6% vs -9.3%), while growth in issued units moderated sharply to 10.2% from 76.7% in May.
UK softwood traders enjoyed a period of strong trading through the first two months of Q2, supported by a rise in demand gaining momentum through both April and May. This followed on from a stable Q1 when imports increased by just under 2% against the same period in 2024. Since the beginning of this year, a number of Nordic producers were short of spruce logs for structural grades, and in many cases switched to pine. That move had a knock-on effect on the amount of redwood available for production at some mills. With good demand and some shortages, Q2 prices moved upwards, not only to the UK but other markets in Europe and the US as well. However, the UK merchants adopted a more sceptical and cautious approach. Many held back from making longer-term commitments on the forward market to ensure the recovery and stability in the market was sustainable.
Timber and forestry investment is gaining ground in Europe, as private equity increasingly shifts towards climate-aligned strategies. A recent EY report highlights growing momentum behind timber and forestry funds, previously seen as niche, now positioned as core components of sustainability-focused portfolios. Despite global private equity fundraising falling to $680 billion in 2024, the lowest since 2015, investors are favouring fewer, larger deals. Europe is leading in sustainable asset allocation, with over half of all new fund launches in Article 8 and 9 categories under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, according to Morningstar. Timber and forestry funds attracted $8.4 billion in 2024, slightly down from 2023 but above the five-year average. These funds often deliver double-digit internal rates of return, with top-performing vintages exceeding 16 percent.
