Category Archives: Special Feature

Special Feature

Trump’s Re-emergence and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector – Part II

By Kelly McCloskey and Robert McKellar
Tree Frog Forestry News
March 24, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

Kelly McCloskey

Robert McKellar

When we first reached out to political risk expert Robert McKellar in mid-2024, our goal was to spark a conversation the forest sector wasn’t yet having—about political risk and its growing influence on everything from trade policy to investment decisions. Robert’s op-ed in August, 2024 made the case that political risk is not just something that happens in volatile regions—it is the exposure of businesses to political forces, whether through government policies, trade dynamics, or geopolitical shifts. He identified major political forces impacting the Canadian forest sector—including the growing China-West rivalry and Canada-US trade friction—to help companies assess the relevance of political risk for themselves. In hindsight, his foresights were well placed.

After the election of President Trump and given how quickly the trade situation evolved, we reached out to Robert a few weeks ago to re-examine these dynamics. And given the complexities, we decided on a two-part approach. In Part I, in February 2025, Robert set the stage by looking at Trump’s leadership style and his approach to business, he outlined how forest product companies can assess and manage political risk, and then he focused on the most pressing risk to the sector—tariffs. The other risks—lumber duties, interference in Canadian-owned US-based industries, and the impact of US-China trade tensions on lumber sales—were left for Part II.  In that this is a long read, in the “READ MORE document” are the following hyperlinked-titles—should you wish to proceed directly to a given section:

  • Recap of Part I
  • Is Trump toying with Canada or is there a plan?
  • The latest on duties and tariffs
  • Are Canadian US-subsidiaries at risk?
  • US-China friction and lumber sales
  • How to plan and manage for political risk

This isn’t a typical industry commentary. It’s not about what government should do, or where markets might go next. It’s about what companies can do now to better anticipate, adapt to, and, at times, even leverage political disruption. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]

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Regional Chief Terry Teegee calls for meaningful partnerships and sustainable forestry

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The opening keynote of the 2025 COFI Convention was delivered by Regional Chief Terry Teegee of the BC Assembly of First Nations. …Teegee underscored the significant role First Nations play in the forestry industry, both as stewards of the land and as active participants in the economic fabric of the sector. …Turning to economic challenges facing the sector, Chief Teegee addressed the threat of tariffs on Canadian lumber products. “These tariffs are more than just a policy issue; they’re creating real-world impacts,” he said, noting the strain on forestry businesses, especially those owned or operated by First Nations. “The uncertainty hits us hard. The social impacts are significant,” he added. He also spoke about the need to build resilience in the sector, stating, “Forestry is a renewable industry…we’re going into second pass and it will always be there.” …Chief Teegee’s address set the tone for the convention, emphasizing the need for partnerships, sustainable practices, and the central role of Indigenous leadership in shaping the future of BC’s forest industry.

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Economic outlook and where do we stand on competitiveness and sustainability

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

Kurt Niquidet, Vice President and Chief Economist at COFI, opened the panel by discussing timber supply in BC. He explained that the annual allowable cut (AAC) has been trending down, now sitting at approximately 60 million cubic meters. This decline, attributed to factors like the mountain pine beetle outbreak and wildfires, is contributing to a growing gap between the AAC and actual harvests. …He also pointed out the challenges in meeting timber targets, especially with BC Timber Sales (BCTS) falling short of its targets, further stressing the supply crunch. …Glenn O’Kelly of O’Kelly Acumen, who shared findings from a benchmarking report comparing BC’s forestry sector performance with other global jurisdictions. “In the last 10 years, BC’s forestry sector has seen a 3.6% decline in GDP, the lowest of the peer group,” O’Kelly noted. …Despite the challenges, O’Kelly noted that BC had experienced a positive development in terms of productivity.

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Navigating global markets: challenges and opportunities

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The third panel of the 2025 COFI Convention focused on navigating global markets and maintaining competitiveness in the face of challenges. Russ Taylor, President of Russ Taylor Global, opened the session by addressing the disruptions in global markets, particularly with the US trade relationship under President Donald Trump. …Mark Cameron, Fellow & Lead of Canada-US Relations Strategy at the Public Policy Forum, addressed the current state of US-Canada trade relations and the threat of tariffs on Canadian lumber. …Kate Lindsay, Senior Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer at the Forest Products Association of Canada, followed by discussing the European Union’s new regulation—the EUDR—that will be implemented in December 2025. …Sean Lawler, Managing Director of Canada Wood Japan, provided insights into the state of the Japanese market, focusing on the challenges and opportunities for BC’s forest products in the region.

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Spotlight on innovation, technology and wood construction

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

The 2025 COFI Convention spotlighted the theme of innovation in forestry with a session focused on new technologies and opportunities for wood-based construction. Kylie Williams, BC Regional Director for Foresight Canada, introduced the session, emphasizing the critical role of innovation in the face of industry challenges such as fibre supply issues and market uncertainty. …Tim Caldecott, Senior Director of Sustainable Construction and Carbon & Market Economics at FPInnovations, followed with a discussion on the opportunities for wood-based buildings. He acknowledged the growing interest in wood as a building material but pointed out that the market share of wood-based non-residential buildings remains small. …Todd Sayers, Chief Operating Officer at the BC Centre for Innovation in Clean Energy, closed the session by focusing on diversification and the development of new technologies. He discussed the Centre’s work in biofuels and wildfire mitigation technologies.

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Canada should be fighting like Muhammad Ali. Instead, it is fighting like Joe Frazier

By Don Wright, Semi-Retired Private and Public Sector Executive
LinkedIn
April 3, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, Canada West

Don Wright

In 1973 Joe Frazier, the world heavyweight boxing champion at the time, fought George Foreman. Foreman was younger, taller and had a fearsome reputation for knocking out his opponents quickly. Frazier immediately began trading punches with Foreman in the centre of the ring. Foreman knocked Frazier down six times in the first two rounds before the referee called a halt to the fight. In 1974 Muhammad Ali, hoping to recover the title stripped from him in 1967, fought Foreman in the “Rumble in the Jungle” in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo. Going into the match, Foreman was a 4-1 favourite to beat Ali. And yet, Ali won. How?! Rather than engage in trying to match Foreman blow-for-blow in the centre of the ring, Ali leaned back on the ropes in a defensive position for much of the early rounds and let Foreman tire himself out trying to punch through, a strategy Ali called “rope-a-dope.” As Foreman tired, he let down his guard and Ali was able to knock him out in the eighth round.

My major point, however, is that we should make like Muhammed Ali – practise some rope-a-dope and let Trump punch himself out. He is furiously swinging in multiple directions right now – at China, Europe, Ukraine, the domestic culture war, and everything else. Rather than one boxing match, he has taken on many simultaneously.  There is evidence that the U.S. economy may be stalling. Trump’s actions are damaging business confidence in the U.S., and if the tariffs remain in place American households and businesses will see higher costs. This has already begun to cost him politically. And the cost will grow the longer his tariffs remain in place.

This is an instructive metaphor for Canada’s response to Donald Trump’s tariff threats.  We should be fighting like Ali, but we are fighting like Frazier.

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