Surging construction costs, supply chain snarls and unprecedented demand led to something of a wild ride for lumber prices at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. …According to Vancouver-based consultant Russ Taylor prices are around 50% above what would traditionally be considered a good market, although inflation, rising interest rates and cooler demand in the DIY market mean they’re likely to decline imminently. …Some of the challenges associated with the pandemic appear to be easing, with more mills now able to operate, produce lumber and bring supply into the market. …While the supply problem in the market is easing, inventory is still “quite low,” meaning that those who need to buy at present are propping up lumber prices to some degree. However, that situation will probably end before the season is out, according to Taylor, as some construction pauses due to summer breaks or hot weather.
“Unlike the first half of the year where it was too much demand and not enough supply, now it’s going to be too much supply, not enough demand,” he explained. “My expectation is we’re going to see some further price reductions into the third quarter – but probably not for a little while.” Taylor expects prices to correct by another 25% to 35% to somewhere in the low-to-mid-$500s – although that would still keep them well above historical and pre-pandemic levels. …The futures market is seeing lumber trading at $655 for July to September, even higher than its current levels. Still, that should be taken with a pinch of salt, Taylor said. “It’s just that it doesn’t really reflect reality – but it is reflecting some bullishness right now because the market is a bit tight,” he said. …“I think by the end of July into August, we’ll see a correction and we’ll see where futures are trading then.”