During April’s election campaign, the Carney government promised to double the pace of homebuilding in Canada by 2035—an unlikely outcome in light of Canada’s shortage of construction workers and investment dollars. But even if homebuilding were miraculously doubled, it would not solve Canada’s housing affordability crisis. That’s the sobering conclusion of a recent report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which modelled what would happen if the rate of homebuilding between 2025 and 2035 were double what it is today. Even under this hypothetical decade-long homebuilding bonanza, average home prices would still rise by 20 per cent in Toronto (to $1.4 million) and eight per cent in Vancouver (to $1.6 million), while nationwide rents would climb by more than one-third. Housing affordability would gradually improve as incomes rise, but by 2035 it would only return to 2019 levels, when many renters and homebuyers were already struggling to afford a home.

In related Fraser Institute news: Alberta sets pace on new housing construction—rest of Canada should catch up