Daily News for June 17, 2020

Today’s Takeaway

Lumber prices stabilize as builder and consumer confidence rises

June 17, 2020
Category: Today's Takeaway

US builder confidence surged in June as Canadians shed their pessimism about the economy, and lumber prices stabilized. But according to two FEA principals: the current recession will play out differently than 2008 as housing starts and lumber prices tick-up through 2021.

In other Business news: Canfor’s Swedish subsidiary acquires 3 sawmills; China claims pests found in logs imported from Canada; and BC appoints Ravi Kahlon to lead its mass timber expansion, as a Georgia bill seeks to expand its use. Meanwhile: Nova Scotia names board to oversee new forestry trust; and Western Forest Products defends limited pesticide use in Powell River region.

Finally, a Philadelphia study says increasing tree canopy can decrease human mortality!

Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor

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Special Feature

Lumber prices expected to moderate in 2020, tick up in 2021: FEA

Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
The Tree Frog Forestry News
June 15, 2020
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

Paul Jannke

Speaking on North American lumber markets, Paul Jannke, FEA Principal, says he expects prices to peak in June/July and then move sideways for the balance of the year (in the $325 to $375 per MBF range). Western SPF should average a little over $360 while SYP and D-fir are in the $400 range. According to Jannke, these uninspiring prices reflect the fact that current prices are well above costs (particularly in the US) and some producers are expected to ramp up production while some dealers cut back on their purchases. Further, notwithstanding his expectation of increasing housing starts and strong R&R activity, overall consumption is still expected to be weak. Not so weak, however, as to bring back the March/April lows.

Beyond 2020, lumber prices are expected to move up into the $350 to $400 per MBF range. This reflects an 8% increase in demand from the residential sector or about 2 billion bf in 2021, and minimal additions of new milling capacity. Jannke noted that although Canada has borne the brunt of the recent curtailments (down 15% or 3.5 BBF compared to 6% or 2 BBF in the US), this reflects in part, high SYP usage in the R&R market. As residential housing strengthens in 2021 and softwood lumber duties are reduced (expected in October), Jannke expects Canadian mills to fare better. For more information from FEA’s Russ Taylor, click here.

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Current recession will not be a replay of 2008: FEA

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
The Tree Frog Forestry News
June 15, 2020
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

Brendan Lowney

The following is a brief recap of two speakers at FEA’s Global Softwood Lumber Conference—the virtual version. First up, Brendan Lowney, FEA Principal, with a macroeconomic view of housing and lumber demand trends in North America.

Speaking on the overall US economy and given the COVID crisis, Lowney’s main takeaway is that the current recession will not be a replay of the 2008 recession and in fact, will play out quite differently. The main difference being the depth and speed at which the North American economy collapsed in 2020. According to Lowney, the US real GDP dropped 11.5% in the last two-quarters alone (compared to the last recession where output declined by 4% from peak-to-trough over five quarters) and he doesn’t expect the US economy to return to its 2019 Q4-level until the second half of 2022.

Another difference relates at how much “demand hesitation” has been created due to a fear of the virus. Although FEA is forecasting unemployment levels to fall to 10% by the end of 2020 and to 7% by the end of 2021, low restaurant and traveller activity suggest—notwithstanding government easing of restrictions—it will take time to fully recover.

Finally, Lowney notes the underlying strength of the current housing market from a supply and demand perspective. Notably, the fact that when the COVID recession arrived, the US was underbuilt by 3-4 million households, compared to being overbuilt by 2 million in 2008. Further, the government was much quicker to respond with low interest rates and fiscal support. Other factors supporting a strong housing recovery include the continued aging of the housing stock and the current elevated household-forming demographic of 30-35 year-olds.

As such, on an annualized basis, Lowney expects the second quarter housing trough to recover to about 1 million starts in May/June, rising to 1.12 million by year-end and just under 1.3 million in 2021. Housing starts should continue ticking upward, peaking in the 2023-25 period. Wood use in the R&R sector (e.g., doors, window, etc.), which has fared well during the shutdown is also expected to trend upward, as is the portion of the industrial sector that tracks closely with housing (e.g., doors, windows, etc.). Not expected to recover as quickly is wood use in the industrial sector more aligned with industrial manufacturing and exports (e.g., pallets, crates, etc.)

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Business & Politics

China says pests found in Canadian shipments of logs, asks for investigation

Reuters in the National Post
June 16, 2020
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, International

BEIJING — China’s foreign ministry has asked Canada to investigate pests found in shipments of logs, spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters at a daily briefing on Tuesday. The move coincides with strained relations between China and Canada since the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, of telecoms firm Huawei in December 2018. …Canada’s Trade Ministry confirmed that on June 9 it received 16 notifications of non-compliance from China related to the discovery of pests in shipments of hardwood and softwood logs, spokesman Ryan Nearing said. “Canada is investigating these notices as per standard response procedures,” Nearing said. “Ongoing trade in forestry products to China continues without disruption despite the notices.” …Zhao said some Chinese port authorities had detected pests in imported Canadian logs that were not permitted under Chinese quarantine rules.

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Canfor Subsidiary to Acquire Strategic Assets in Sweden

Canfor Corporation
June 17, 2020
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, International

VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor announced that its 70%-owned subsidiary, Vida Group, has entered into an agreement to purchase three sawmills located in Sweden from Bergs Timber for a purchase price of CAD$43 million plus working capital. …The three mills, which are located in Vimmerby, Mörlunda and Orrefors, Sweden, will add approximately 215 million board feet to Vida’s annual capacity. With additional investment, Vida anticipates the production capacity of the mills can be increased to 300 million board feet. After taking into account this additional production capacity, Sweden represents 22% of Canfor’s globally diversified operating platforms, plus 43% in BC, 31% in the Southern US and 4% in Alberta. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2020.

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Ravi Kahlon appointed to lead expansion and use of mass timber in B.C. buildings

By Rattan Mall
The Indo-Canadian Voice
June 16, 2020
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Ravi Kahlon

Premier John Horgan has appointed Ravi Kahlon, Parliamentary Secretary for Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development, to lead the expansion and use of mass timber in B.C. buildings. Horgan made the announcement in a call with representatives of the BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI). …“By focusing on mass timber, we have an opportunity to transition the forestry sector to high-value over high-volume production. This will mean opportunities for local workers, strong partnerships with First Nations and greater economic opportunity while making a significant contribution to advancing CleanBC,” said Horgan. …“Mass timber is key to diversifying and creating a more resilient forest sector,” said Kahlon. …“We know that B.C. can become the ‘Harvard of green building,’ the place the world looks to for the next big idea on how to use our forest resources to support better choices for the planet,” said Susan Yurkovich, CEO, COFI.

Also see the BC Government Press Release

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Ottawa needs to support B.C. forest sector

By Bob Zimmer, MP
The Prince George Daily News
June 16, 2020
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Bob Zimmer

On June 11, our local forestry sector was once again hit with devastating news with the announcement that Paper Excellence Canada would be curtailing operations at its Mackenzie pulp mill. First and foremost, my thoughts are with the 253 employees that will be affected by this closure. There is no doubt that British Columbia’s forestry industry was already in crisis prior to COVID-19. This latest closure in Mackenzie makes it clear that the global pandemic has only exacerbated things thanks to a lower demand for pulp and a shortage in the fibre supply. …It is clear that strong leadership is needed to repair our trading relationship with the United States so that a softwood lumber agreement can finally be reached. So far, the Liberals have shown they are just not up to the task. 

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Ontario’s waiver of $23M grant to Resolute acknowledged company’s regional investments

By Gary Rinne
The Thunder Bay News Watch
June 16, 2020
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

FORT FRANCES, Ontario — The government of former Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne released Resolute Forest Products from its obligation to repay a $23 million dollar contribution from the province’s Forest Sector Prosperity Fund, with virtually no conditions. However, it appears the government felt it was a reasonable trade-off for the even larger investments the company had made in the northwestern Ontario forest sector.  Through a Freedom of Information request, Tbnewswatch obtained a copy of the June 2017 waiver signed by then-Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry Kathryn McGarry.  The waiver relieved Resolute of the requirement to return the money the province agreed to provide, in 2007, toward the construction of a $90 million, 54 MW co-generation facility at the Fort Frances mill. The installation was completed in 2009.

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Relief package for logging and trucking companies deserves support

By Dana Doran, executive director, Professional Logging Contractors of Maine
Central Maine
June 16, 2020
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

Maine logging and forest trucking contractors have joined a national effort seeking federal relief for their industry at a time when COVID-19 and its economic impacts are threatening the survival of the companies on which the entire U.S. forest economy depends. The Maine industry was introduced to COVID-19 in January and February as export markets started to shut down, bringing about an abrupt end to their busiest time of year even before the state began to see the impacts of the disease. …our state’s family logging and forest trucking businesses persevered as they were deemed essential and felt that a growing demand for wood fiber during the pandemic could lift them back to health. This optimism quickly turned to despair… How bad is it? …Maine loggers and forest truckers have seen what has been done to help …the farming and fishing industries…now they hope that [government] will do the same for them.

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Finance & Economics

Softwood lumber prices have stabilized while inventories remain weak

By Madison’s Lumber Reporter
Wood Business – Canadian Forest Industries
June 16, 2020
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

After a wild ride down then up over the past few months, most standard construction framing dimension softwood lumber prices stabilized last week, to levels both producers and customers are comfortable with. …For the week ending June 12, 2020, prices of most standard construction framing dimension softwood lumber items remained flat, with benchmark item WSPF 2×4 #2&Btr KD still at US378 mfbm, as the week before. The price for this benchmark lumber commodity was up +$18, or plus five per cent from one month ago. Compared to the same week in 2019 when it was US$376, this price is up +$2, or plus one per cent.

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Canadian existing home sales jump in May, but remain at multi-year lows

EconoTimes
June 15, 2020
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s existing home sales rose 56.9 percent month-on-month in May as buyers came back. Home sales had dropped to their weakest level on record in the prior month owing to the pandemic. However, the large gain recorded in May has retraced around one third of activity lost between February and April, and sales continued to be at multi-year lows. Province wise, sales rose in nearly every province, led by Quebec, recording a jump of 107.3 percent.

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Consumer Confidence Rises in Canada for 7th Straight Week

By Shelly Hagan
Bloomberg
June 15, 2020
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canadians are slowly shedding their pessimism about the economy as provinces gradually reopen from the pandemic-induced shutdowns, with the consumer confidence edging higher for a seventh straight week. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, based on a random survey of Canadians, rose to 42.86 last week from 41 a week earlier. …“Although consumer confidence remains net negative, there are emerging signs in the data of a potential confidence recovery,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said in the report. “Perceptions on the future strength of the Canadian economy has improved seven points compared to four weeks ago.”

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US Builder Confidence Surges in June

By Robert Dietz
NAHB – Eye on Housing
June 16, 2020
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

In a sign that housing stands poised to lead a post-pandemic economic recovery, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 21 points to 58 in June, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Any reading above 50 indicates a positive market. As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward. Inventory is tight, mortgage applications are increasing, interest rates are low and confidence is rising. …The HMI index gauging current sales conditions jumped 21 points to 63, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months surged 22 points to 68 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers vaulted 22 points to 43.

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

Bill aimed at boosting Georgia timber industry clears General Assembly

By Dave Williams
The Augusta Chronicle
June 16, 2020
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: United States, US East

ATLANTA — Legislation that could clear the way for developers in Georgia to construct mid-rise office buildings made mostly of wood gained final passage in the General Assembly Tuesday. The state Senate unanimously approved a bill asking the state Department of Community Affairs to review a provision in the International Building Code that allows buildings constructed of “mass timber” to rise as high as 18 stories and recommend whether Georgia should adopt it. The state building code limits wood office buildings to six stories. Only four Western states — Oregon, Washington, Montana and Utah — have adopted the new provision for their states, Senate Agriculture and Consumer Affairs Committee Chairman John Wilkinson, R-Toccoa, told his Senate colleagues Tuesday. …Wilkinson said the legislation would expedite the DCA’s review of the International Building Code provision on mass timber.

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Forestry

The World is My Ashtray

Drive Smart BC
June 14, 2020
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

I found myself waiting for a red light behind another vehicle this week. That vehicle’s driver had his window down, his elbow on the sill and was holding what was left of his cigarette between left thumb and forefinger. I knew exactly what was going to happen: one last drag on the butt and flick, away it went into the ditch. …Half of the forest fires in BC each year are caused by human activity and smoking materials are high on the list of culprits. If you are a smoker, please use your ashtray. If you don’t, you never know who might be watching and may choose to provide your licence plate number to police. A violation ticket for discarding that butt under the Wildfire Act carries a penalty of $575 no matter what time of year it is.

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Public support key to Dungate Community Forest expansion

By Rod Link
Houston Today
June 17, 2020
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

HOUSTON, BC — Plans by the Dungate Community Forest to expand its annual allowable cut will be helped along by local support. “It is an important part of the application,” noted Greg Yeomans. …And while the forest, lands and natural resource operations and northern development ministry has consistently told the community forest all of the annual allowable cut within the Morice Timber Supply Area has been allocated, Yeomans said that’s the case with every timber supply area in the province. …One argument forwarded by Dungate is that adjacent TSAs have a higher proportion of their annual allowable cuts allocated to community forests than does the Morice TSA.

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Shawnigan Basin Society would like to add Rat Lake forest to public lands

Letter by Bernhard H.J. Juurlink, Vice President Shawnigan Basin Society
Cowichan Valley Citizen
June 16, 2020
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

Bernhard H.J. Juurlink

There is overwhelming evidence that being immersed in nature is good for our physical and mental health. It was very disappointing to find that the CVRD had closed the walking trail around Rat Lake in Mill Bay because of some disagreement with Mosaic Forest Management. Because of this closure on March 12, Area A Director Blaise Salmon facilitated a meeting between the Mill Bay/Malahat Community Parks Advisory Commission and Domenico Iannidinardo, vice president and chief forester of Mosaic Forest Management. At this meeting Mr. Iannidinardo agreed that Mosaic will allow the public to access this trail and, furthermore, that Mosaic would clear the obstructions the CVRD placed on the trail to prevent public access. …Mosaic owns 620.5 acres of forest surrounding Rat Lake and Mr. Iannidinardo, in response to a question, stated that Mosaic might consider selling this forest, thereby allowing it to be placed in the public trust.

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Vegetation control in Powell River region essential, says company

The Powell River Peak
June 16, 2020
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

In response to opposition expressed to the application of pesticides by Western Forest Products on tree farm licence 39… Babita Khunkhun, senior director, communications, said that on some sites, vegetation control is essential to prevent competing or invasive vegetation from hindering the growth of planted trees. …She said the majority of vegetation management treatments utilized by Western are in the form of manual methods. Manual methods include girdling, manual brushing and weeding, mechanical brushing and weeding, and knockdown, she said. “Pesticides are only used in circumstances where manual methods are not as effective, and are used selectively to treat individual competing trees or plants,” added Khunkhun. “In the past five years, herbicides have been applied selectively to less than one per cent of the total land base we manage.”

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Mosaic chops firewood for health-care workers on the mid Island

The Vancouver Island Free Daily
June 16, 2020
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada West

Sixty cords of firewood will go to front-line health-care workers in a gesture of thanks from Mosaic Forest Management. Mosaic’s annual safety program includes removing dangerous trees along the company’s road network. This year Mosaic’s Northwest Bay crew cut and split more than 60 cords of firewood for front-line workers to show appreciation during the COVID-19 crisis. The Tool Shed in Parksville donated the use of a wood splitter and the Hospital Employees Union helped Mosaic get the word out about the donation program to local health-care workers who could sign up for the firewood, which was spoken for within 24 hours.

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Nova Scotia names board to oversee $50M forestry trust

By Michael Gorman
CBC News
June 17, 2020
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada, Canada East

The Nova Scotia government has named the three-person board that will oversee a $50-million trust fund intended to help the province’s forestry industry transition into a more diversified sector. The fund was announced in February, in the wake of the closure of the Northern Pulp mill in Pictou County and a near immediate downturn in the industry as a result of losing its largest player. It also came against the backdrop of a report calling for a more sustainable, ecological approach to forestry. Sandra McKenzie, a former deputy minister for the province who now works as a consultant, will chair the board. She is joined by Douglas Hall, a former managing director at RBC Capital Markets, and David Saxton, a retired partner from Grant Thornton.

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Cash for trees

By Joseph Winters
Grist
June 16, 2020
Category: Forestry
Region: International

Looking for a way to save the world’s carbon-sucking forests from logging? Try fighting poverty, new research says. According to a study in the journal Science Advances, an Indonesian government program that provided cash grants to poor families resulted in 30 percent less deforestation in their villages — even though the program was not specifically aimed at conservation. The Program Keluarga Harapan, or Family Hopes Program, began in 2007 and offers families cash to cover 15 to 20 percent of their needs, if they meet educational and health requirements. (Children must attend school, for example, and pregnant women must receive vaccines.) Deforestation worldwide is often fueled by poverty: Impoverished communities sell timber or clear land for agriculture when other revenue streams dry up. But researchers say that the Indonesian program gave farmers a fallback when rains were late or crops failed, thus limiting logging and forest destruction.

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Bureau of Land Management should take a hike

Letter by Ronna Lynn Frank, a resident of the Thurston Hills
The Register-Guard
June 16, 2020
Category: Forestry

Why would I tell the Bureau of Land Management to “take a hike”? Because I live and work in the Thurston Hills, and based on my knowledge of the area, the agency seems totally clueless about the land that they are managing. …But there are ample reasons for these supposed experts to lace up their hiking boots when proposing timber sales. First, to identify potential hazards to surrounding properties and adjacent communities. Then to inform those homeowners of the danger of fire and landslides that would result from extensive logging next to those properties. But, for all intents and purposes, the BLM has failed to do either. …The link between logging and wildfire isn’t news to the BLM. In September of last year, a district court judge stopped the sale due to the BLM’s failure to disclose that, according to their own science, the project would increase the risk of wildfire to adjacent communities.

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Health & Safety

Study in Philadelphia links growth in tree canopy to decrease in human mortality

By USDA Forest Service – Northern Research Station
Science Daily
June 16, 2020
Category: Health & Safety
Region: United States, US East

The first city-wide health impact assessment of the estimated effects of a tree canopy initiative on premature mortality in Philadelphia suggests that increased tree canopy could prevent between 271 and 400 premature deaths per year. The study by Michelle Kondo, a Philadelphia-based research social scientist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, and her partners suggest that increased tree canopy or green space could decrease morbidity and mortality for urban populations — particularly in areas with lower socioeconomic status where existing tree canopies tend to be the lowest. …”This study supports the idea that increasing tree canopy and urban greening efforts are worthwhile, even at modest levels, as health-promoting and cost-saving measures,” Kondo said. “While the COVID-19 pandemic has meant that we need to pay attention to our proximity to other people… time outside in parks and forests has been critical to maintaining our mental and physical health.”

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Huge forest fires put health at risk

By Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
Phys.org
June 16, 2020
Category: Health & Safety
Region: International

After Australia, Siberia is burning, indicating that the frequency of such events is on the rise, with myriad dire consequences: devastated ecosystems, risk of desertification, CO2 emissions, toxic particles, further climate impacts. …But what about the long-term consequences for the environment, the climate and our health? …The populations in urban environments and other locations that are exposed to high levels of pollutants are more likely to have compromised respiratory, cardiac and immune systems and even conditions like dementia and diabetes—and are therefore more vulnerable to infection from the coronavirus. Biomass-burning smoke is particularly toxic, containing a large number of carcinogens, as well as compounds that cause oxidative stress upon inhalation. …A recently published study showed that this old, background smoke can have just as big an effect on climate as freshly emitted smoke.

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Forest Fires

Bush Fire increases to 14,371 acres

By Alexis Bechman
Payson Roundup
June 16, 2020
Category: Forest Fires
Region: United States, US West

A fire that broke out north of Fountain Hills this weekend that is being driven by hot, dry and blustery conditions has shut down the Beeline Highway and led officials to evacuate Punkin Center and Tonto Basin residents. The Bush Fire on the Tonto National Forest was at 14,371 acres as of Monday morning and 0% contained. Fire officials say the fire is burning quickly through grass and brush into the Four Peaks Wilderness… The human-caused fire started Saturday… Because of the fire’s growth and movement, the communities of Punkin Center and Tonto Basin were asked to evacuate Monday morning. …Weather forecasts for the fire area continue to call for hot, dry and windy conditions, which will make it difficult for crews to stop the fire’s forward progression. …Several other fires have started across the state in what promises to become a white-knuckle fire season…

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