Irving Paper and AV Group are forced to make changes due to NP Power bills. In related news: the European Commission approves International Paper/DS Smith deal subject to plant sales; Canada’s probe of Paper Excellence ‘dies’ with prorogued parliament; and San Group’s fate may result in tax hikes for Port Alberni. Meanwhile: the latest on Trump’s tariff threat from:
- Ian Pattison in the Chronicle Journal: War on Canada is a nonsensical plot
- The WSJ Editorial Board: Trump’s lumber tariffs threaten LA disaster recovery
- The Financial Times: The world is moving on to trade without the US
- US Lumber Coalition: Applauds strong stance on US trade law enforcement
In other news: the USDA announces forestry and environment appointments; Georgia’s timber industry eyes sustainable aviation fuels; wildfire risks may demand stricter building codes; and a new study on tree migration and climate change mitigation.
Finally, a BC old-growth/climate activist is deported to Pakistan after protest charges.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
President Trump said, “We don’t need Canada to make our cars. We don’t need their lumber because we have our own forests,” he said. “We don’t need their oil and gas.” Mr. Trump is wrong on all three, but we’ll focus on lumber. The U.S. doesn’t produce enough lumber to meet domestic demand and thus imports about a third of the softwood used in home construction, mostly from Canada. …Mr. Trump’s tariff threat has created uncertainty for lumber wholesalers and contractors that could delay rebuilding. The U.S. can’t ramp up lumber production in the near term to meet domestic demand, so contractors will have to eat the tariff cost on lumber from Canada or import more from other countries, which would be expensive. If Mr. Trump wants to increase U.S. lumber production, he could open up more federal land for logging. …More tariffs will punish Americans trying to rebuild. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
The B.C. government has turned down a petition to investigate Canada’s largest forestry company at a time when a federal probe into the firm faces the prospect of total collapse. On December 2, 2024, the national Standing Committee on Natural Resources unanimously passed a motion summoning Paper Excellence owner Jackson Wijaya to testify before lawmakers—an order that was enforceable with a legal subpoena if necessary. …Charlie Angus, the NDP’s natural resources critic and member of Parliament for Timmins–James Bay, said Wijaya’s expanded ownership over APP represents a break down in government oversight. …the probe came to a grinding halt when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau … prorogued Parliament. That act wiped out the work of all parliamentary committees, including the motion to summon Wijaya….When asked if B.C.’s Ministry of Forests would heed calls to launch its own investigation into Paper Excellence, a spokesperson deferred to the federal government. 
While Donald Trump has yet to act on his multiple tariff threats, it’s likely he will. So the fear lingers that the US president’s aggressive trade posture will sow global disorder, depressing growth and roiling markets, particularly if targeted nations retaliate. But retaliation is not the only or even the most likely response to Trump, no matter how broadly he finally delivers on his threats. The US has wielded tariffs as a weapon for eight years now. …Some nations retaliated; others offered concessions or challenged them before global trade arbiters. But most just quietly moved on, seeking trade with countries other than the US. Since 2017, trade has held more or less steady at just under 60% of global GDP. But there’s been a decline in the US share of trade flows offset by an increase in other regions. Trump 2.0 seems likely to bring more of the same: trade without America.
The Bank of Canada is being pulled in a few different directions ahead of its first interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday. On one hand, there are signs of trouble bubbling up in underlying inflation that could make an argument for keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. On the other: Donald Trump has reiterated threats to impose tariffs of 25% on Canadian goods that could be set to take effect mere days after the central bank’s rate decision. …A trade blow like that would normally push the Bank of Canada towards steeper rate cuts in a bid to salvage economic growth. But dropping rates too quickly at a time when the loonie is already struggling risks fuelling more inflation on imports from the US. Economists say they’re betting the Bank of Canada will go ahead with another cut.
Calgary’s construction industry is hoping the threat of American tariffs doesn’t slow its momentum in 2025. …Bill Black, the head of the Calgary Construction Association, says when it comes to certain building materials, the tariffs could cause unrepairable damage. “Lumber suppliers selling are obviously going to feel a really significant impact on their volume that goes into the U.S.,” Black said. “The overall viability of the lumber business is based on a blend of the two markets, and if one market becomes unfeasible because of tariffs, that then puts pressure on the operating businesses. “That could impact their ability to service the Canadian market as well.” …The city has seen consecutive years of a record number of housing starts, and those in the sector don’t want to lose vital momentum. …Alberta’s forest ministry reiterated the importance of cross-border trade Friday, saying there’s still optimism a tariff-stopping solution can be found.
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A new University of British Columbia study has pinpointed strategies to help local forests adapt to climate change. …the eight-year study found ways forest ecosystems can be better prepared for the climate threat, with a focus on mitigating the loss of the Douglas fir tree. …professor and co-author of the study Suzanne Simard, said the project looked at the process of relocating Douglas firs that are already adapted to dry, hot weather, further north. …Opting for a two-pronged approach, researchers also explored how various routes of harvesting and regenerating forests would affect the migrated seedlings’ attempt to grow in the face of climate change. Researchers tried various avenues, from clear-cutting to retaining larger densities of the tallest Douglas fir trees, said Simard.
Controlled burns are a key to Georgia’s strategy of preventing the kind of wildfires that are devastating the Los Angeles area… The fires in LA, fueled by historic drought and powerful Santa Ana winds, have raised questions about the vulnerabilities of other communities, particularly as human development spreads into wildlands. More frequent and more costly natural disasters, such as wildfires, have also contributed to surging home insurance costs nationwide. …Georgia lately has been averaging about 1,200 wildfires a year — a historical low, said Johnny Sabo, director of the Georgia Forestry Commission, which issues permits for controlled burns under proper conditions. He credited the state’s overall response and management for preventing most of those fires from getting out of hand. In Georgia, more than 90% of the state’s woodlands are in private hands, including commercial timberland that generates billions in economic impact each year, according to the forestry commission.
Georgia is the nation’s top forestry state, grappling with overproduction and the aftermath of severe storms which damaged timber supplies. Industry leaders and policymakers are turning to sustainable aviation fuel to boost the industry, create jobs and reduce carbon emissions. Sen. Larry Walker, R-Perry… said the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel from companies like Delta Air Lines highlights its potential. However, he emphasized expanding production requires strategic federal policies and research to ensure long-term growth. “To invest in a facility that manufactures SAF, it’s a huge investment. It’s a long-term proposition,” Walker stressed. “We need some certainty out of Washington what the public policy is going to be, what the incentives to create this industry are.” …Walker added state lawmakers plan to introduce bills during the 2025 legislative session to support forestry innovation and expand sustainable aviation fuel production in the state.