Housing experts at the International Builders Show point to a downturn this year but recovery in 2024. In other Market news: US home ownership is unchanged; the US housing shortage persists; US consumer confidence declines; and Canada’s GDP ticks up. In Business news: Alberta seeks rail service upgrades; Alabama timber is on the rise; Canoe Forest Products is stable; Kruger Kamloops is profitable; WestRock reports on Q1, 2023; JD Irving bemoans cost increases; and Parkside, Australia closes two mills.
In Forestry/Climate news: PEI announces new forestry commission; FPInnovations looks at logging truck emissions; the US Endowment supports Dept of Defense’s forest protection challenge; a UK investor group bans carbon credits for tree planting; and the proposed EU ban on biomass heating creates energy uncertainty.
Finally, as tornadoes get more destructive, momentum builds for new building codes.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
LAS VEGAS — The housing recession that began in 2022 will bleed into 2023 as elevated inflation and mortgage rates, coupled with stubbornly high building material construction costs, are expected to push the overall economy into a mild recession this year. However, the second half of 2023 could lead to a turning point. …NAHB is projecting that single-family production will fall to 744,000 units this year before rebounding to a 925,000 annual pace in 2024…On the multifamily front… NAHB is projecting that multifamily starts will fall 28% this year to a 391,000 total and will stabilize in 2024 at about 374,000 starts. …Residential remodeling activity is estimated to increase 7% on a nominal basis in 2022 following a growth rate of 13% in 2021 as people continue to use their home for more purposes such as offices, schools and gyms. However, with housing demand weakening, remodeling growth is expected to slow, posting a nominal 5% gain this year and a 4% increase in 2024.
The nation might be in the clutches of a dire housing shortage, but builders won’t be putting up enough new homes this year to make much of a dent. Housing starts are expected to fall to about 744,000 single-family homes in 2023 as builders continue to pull back, according to the NAHB forecast. That’s down about 12% from last year. However, NAHB expects new construction will rebound in the second half of the year, giving a boost to the overall economy. “Typically, single-family construction tends to recover before the economy rebounds,” says NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. …“The fundamental challenge to the housing remains a lack of homes for sale,” says Dietz. “ …Economists say this won’t be anything like the housing crash in the mid-2000s. Back then, there were more homes than buyers for them. This time the opposite is true.
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Following recommendations from FPInnovations, a recent change in allowable gross vehicle weight (AGVW) through a pilot program for two log truck configurations in Newfoundland and Labrador is underway. The pilot program configurations include an 8-axle B-train trailers going to an AGVW of 65 500 kg (from 62 500 kg) and a tandem drive tractor with a quad axle semi-trailer going to an AGVW of 57 500 kg (from 55 500 kg). The results of these changes in configurations provide 4% lower GHG emissions and 6% fewer log truck trips required to haul a given volume, The reduction in GHG emissions equates to the removal of more than 135 passenger vehicles from the road per year. Once fully implemented, the change in allowable gross vehicle weight (AGVW) for the two truck configurations are expected to improve forest sector efficiency while reducing impacts on public road infrastructure and lowering GHG emissions. 
The Department of Defense Readiness and Environmental Protection Integration (REPI) Program today announced $24 million in funding for the 2023 REPI Challenge Program. Thirteen projects will benefit 26 installations and the communities that support them. These awards will leverage nearly $50 million in partner contributions. Three projects directly benefit the Sentinel Landscapes Partnership. This is the 12th consecutive year of the REPI Challenge Program. As noted on its website, the REPI Challenge supports “…innovative projects that limit incompatible development, enhance military installation resilience to climate change and extreme weather events, and/or relieve current or anticipated environmental restrictions on military testing, training, or operations at locations hosting key mission capabilities.” “The 2023 REPI Challenge Program includes projects that will make key mission capabilities of strategic importance more resilient to climate change,” said Peter Stangel, Chief Operating Office at the U.S. Endowment for Forestry and Communities. Enhancing forest health and reducing wildfire risk are important strategies.”
European Parliament’s proposal is amending the Renewable Energy Resources Directive. Although at their core amendments do not mean a full ban on use of biomass as fuel, they do provide for excluding primary forest biomass from all state support plans, renewable energy goal and longevity criteria. The intended amendments, the ministry warns, would mean additional emission quotas for wood chips. This would make bioenergy financially unattractive. …The statement from the ministry mentions this proposal could put at risk EU member states’ ability to ensure energy security using local renewable energy, which may, in turn, undermine EU’s movement towards climate neutrality. The proposal may promote use of fossil fuel and imported energy resources, so that member states are able to supply themselves with necessary energy, especially heating energy. In the event this proposal is passed, bioenergy may lose its advantages.
LONDON — An investor group committed to climate change and controlling $11 trillion in assets has banned members from counting carbon removal schemes towards their emissions reduction targets before 2030, amid increasing scrutiny of the fast-growing market for carbon offsets. The Net Zero Asset Owner Alliance said on Tuesday it wanted its members to focus in the first instance on encouraging investee companies to reduce emissions across all sectors, rather than removing carbon that has already been emitted by, for example, planting large numbers of trees. The move reflects broad concerns about the quality of some carbon removal schemes and criticism of companies that buy carbon credits instead of improving their own carbon footprints, however the United Nations has said that carbon removal will be required to slow or stop climate change by 2050. The new policy applies to their members and the companies in which they invest.