While the market tries to process what’s to come on the trade front, it’s abundantly clear that the new administration is paying special attention to lumber and likely other wood products. Trump and his surrogates have emphasized the point of view that the US has the underlying resources to produce all its own lumber and wood product needs. In response, there have been a number of news articles highlighting the statements and questioning the idea of whether or not America can quickly and completely wean itself off Canadian wood products. …Canada currently supplies about 12.0 BBF of softwood lumber to the US market. After accounting for the 1.3 BBF of exports the US has shipped in recent years, the US is still short just over 3.2 BBF of operable capacity to quickly fill Canadian lumber supply and still meet current demand levels. In other words, at current demand levels, the US softwood lumber market does not clear without Canadian supply.
…US sawmills could add second and/or third shifts to existing operations to eke out more production if prices and profitability warranted. …It’s plausible that the US could increase supply this way, but as basic economics teaches, there’s only so much upside to raising production by adding labor to the existing capital stock. What about building new sawmill capacity? …Even in favorable conditions, we are talking three to four years to build out the 3-4 BBF of sawmill capacity needed to replace Canadian supply. Even assuming modest demand growth over the remainder of the decade, the US would probably require closer to 10 years to completely and sustainably wean itself off external lumber supply. …Under the right policy conditions and given enough time, US “independence” from Canadian wood products supply and imports more broadly is a plausible scenario, but clearly comes with distinct trade-offs. The brunt of the pain over the near term will be carried by consumers as they absorb these higher prices, especially at a critical point when housing affordability in the US is also under a microscope.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled he doesn’t expect a reprieve on 25% tariffs for steel and aluminum imports scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. The levies, ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump in February, include imports from Canada and Mexico — which are among the top foreign suppliers — and apply to finished metal products, too. U.S. steelmakers have urged Trump to resist exemptions to the tariffs, which risk hitting US companies that use aluminum and steel. Administration officials have said the policy is aimed at cracking down on efforts by countries including Russia and China to bypass existing duties. Last week, Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico but later walked back some of the changes — offering a one-month reprieve to automakers and then expanding that pause to all imported goods covered by the free-trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico.
Let me propose that we respond to President Donald Trump and his supporters in a more direct fashion: by wiping them out. No, not with violent force, or vain attempts at economic annihilation, but in a way that is more, shall we say, fundamental. It would be shockingly easy to empty America’s store shelves of toilet paper. A weeks-long bog-roll panic could be provoked, right now, with only a few words from a Canadian leader. The tissue of lies behind the trade war would be wiped away, exposing the backside of Mr. Trump’s bizarre trade claims in a way that would be far more noticeable than any retaliatory tariff. …Supply chains for the rolls of tissue are so constrained, lacking in stored reserves and Canada-dependent, Kruger CEO Dino Bianco explained, that it would only take a tiny push to cause panic buying and the anxiety-inducing sound of empty cardboard tubes rattling on bathroom spindles. …It sends a clearer message: Canadians believe in trade. We want trade. And if you deprive us of it, we know how to hit you where it really hurts. [Globe and Mail subscription required for full access]
This year’s COFI convention will tackle the most pressing challenge facing BC’s forest sector – predictable access to fibre. Without this, BC’s global competitiveness and the family-supporting jobs forestry provides remain at risk. There is a path forward. Within the sustainable Allowable Annual Cut there are opportunities to surpass a minimum target of 45 million cubic meters of harvest while maintaining environmental stewardship. Achieving these outcomes will require changes to BC Timber Sales (BCTS), innovative approaches to forest landscape planning, stronger partnerships with First Nations, and community-led solutions. Join us for a solutions-oriented discussion, featuring distinguished experts: George Abbott, Treaty Commissioner, Former BC Cabinet Minister & Member, BC Timber Sales Review Task Force; David Elstone, Managing Director, Spar Tree Group; Makenzie Leine, Vice President, Business Development, A&A Trading; Jennifer Gunter, Executive Director, BC Community Forest Association; moderated by Michael Armstrong, VP and Chief Forester at COFI.
SAGUENAY, QUE. — Wood, as well as aluminum, are economic drivers in Quebec’s Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean region north of Quebec City. The … looming 25 per cent tariffs are leaving businesses in Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean bracing for impact. Inotech, a company that specializes in manufacturing equipment for the wood industry, said the economic disruption started in early February, when Trump had initially promised to impose tariffs, before delaying them. “In Quebec, the entire wood market was paralyzed,” said Michel Marceau, the company’s CEO. “People are waiting to see what will happen and during this time, no one is investing,” added Michael Dufour, Inotech’s sales director. A recent study from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce identified Saguenay and Drummondville — a city northeast of Montreal — among the Canadian cities most vulnerable to U.S. tariffs.
US lumber futures have fallen from their all-time highs after president Trump’s delay to tariffs on Canada this week halted a surge in prices. Contracts tracking a truckload of lumber hit the highest point in their 30-month history this week. …Trump initially planned to impose 25% tariffs on critical Canadian imports, boosting prices, but Thursday’s pause for a month pushed prices for delivery in May down more than 6% over two days, to $651 per MBF. Even so, prices remain elevated as Trump also ordered a federal investigation into Canadian companies potentially dumping excess supplies into the US market. …Together with potential tariffs, the total duty on Canadian imports could rise from 14.5 per cent to 52 per cent. “This is going to be devastating for Canadian producers,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist for wood products at price reporting agency Fastmarkets. “No Canadian producer is making the margin to be able to absorb that.”
These are the headlines you’ll find in this month’s newsletter:
Are clear-cuts in forestry bad? I would say no. Nature demands that there is a mosaic of age classes to support conservation of biodiversity. …Wildfire “clearcuts” following insect invasion, disease, wind or old old trees aging out in many forests. …Logging and tree planting have proven logged clear-cuts are a gentler treatment for refreshing forests when compared to traumatic wildfires. On top of the biodiversity and conservation benefits, we get socioeconomic benefits of forest products and employment and resulting government services and infrastructure. …In certain areas where trees are shade tolerant, such as in Interior Douglas Fir areas, various types of selection may be prescribed to fit the ecology of the site. Biodiversity provides for all species in a mosiac of different types across the landscape. Look outside, it is not one continuous environment.
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QUÉBEC – The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change announced the signing of a Canada-Quebec agreement to advance the protection and conservation of nature throughout Quebec. The Government of Canada will invest up to $100 million between now and 2027 to support the objectives of Quebec’s 2030 Nature Plan and Canada’s 2030 Nature Strategy. This nature agreement reflects both governments’ commitment to implementing the Kunming-Montréal Global Biodiversity Framework and establishes a series of objectives to achieve this: Create and expand protected and conserved areas, and accelerate the conservation of natural environments on private land in southern Quebec, including through the implementation of urban park projects; Take action to address threats to biodiversity, better protect threatened or vulnerable species, and foster the recovery of at-risk species; Control invasive alien species; and Support Indigenous leadership in biodiversity conservation.
Eastwood Forests has deployed slightly more than half of its debut fund through deals that have included acquisitions in Costa Rica, Panama and Canada. North Carolina-headquartered Eastwood announced its acquisition of 14,500 ha of northern Vancouver Island timberland from Western Forest Products for $69.2 million in February. …Eastwood VP for transactions Prab Dahal said “Western has done a good job in managing the forests but our philosophies are slightly different in that we probably would not have as much openings and as much clear-cuts as Western did in the past,” said Dahal. …“It has more versatility than the typical natural forest that we look for elsewhere,” said Dahal. “We can manage this purely for carbon and still do good, or manage purely as a plantation and continuously manage with a harvesting level that is sustainable and can do good, financially, for our investors.” …Eastwood was established in 2022. 
Join us for the Interior Safety Conference (ISC) on Thursday, May 1, 2025! This annual event is a must-attend for BC forestry professionals, offering a unique opportunity to delve into safety-related issues and learn ways to enhance safety across the industry. This Year’s Theme: Building Safety Through Shared Experiences. Gain powerful insights and practical knowledge through a series of compelling presentations by industry experts and speakers. The conference is FREE for anyone working in any phase of the forest industry, from silviculture to harvesting to wood products manufacturing.