Kelly McCloskey
Robert McKellar
When we first reached out to political risk expert Robert McKellar in mid-2024, our goal was to spark a conversation the forest sector wasn’t yet having—about political risk and its growing influence on everything from trade policy to investment decisions. Robert’s op-ed in August, 2024 made the case that political risk is not just something that happens in volatile regions—it is the exposure of businesses to political forces, whether through government policies, trade dynamics, or geopolitical shifts. He identified major political forces impacting the Canadian forest sector—including the growing China-West rivalry and Canada-US trade friction—to help companies assess the relevance of political risk for themselves. In hindsight, his foresights were well placed.
After the election of President Trump and given how quickly the trade situation evolved, we reached out to Robert a few weeks ago to re-examine these dynamics. And given the complexities, we decided on a two-part approach. In Part I, in February 2025, Robert set the stage by looking at Trump’s leadership style and his approach to business, he outlined how forest product companies can assess and manage political risk, and then he focused on the most pressing risk to the sector—tariffs. The other risks—lumber duties, interference in Canadian-owned US-based industries, and the impact of US-China trade tensions on lumber sales—were left for Part II. In that this is a long read, in the “READ MORE document” are the following hyperlinked-titles—should you wish to proceed directly to a given section:
- Recap of Part I
- Is Trump toying with Canada or is there a plan?
- The latest on duties and tariffs
- Are Canadian US-subsidiaries at risk?
- US-China friction and lumber sales
- How to plan and manage for political risk
This isn’t a typical industry commentary. It’s not about what government should do, or where markets might go next. It’s about what companies can do now to better anticipate, adapt to, and, at times, even leverage political disruption. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]
It just might be Toronto’s most unlikely tourist attraction. It is pipsqueak-ish in size, not much taller than a single storey of a house. Its branches are scrawny and, at this time of year, empty of leaves, buds or nesting birds. It even has steep competition from its own neighbours just south of Trinity Bellwoods, such as the towering maple across the road and the elegant evergreen up the street. But this young Eastern Redbud is the little tree that could. The tree — its name is Rodney, the owners will tell you — has become an oddball local celebrity. Since being planted less than five years ago, Rodney has already gotten 
President Trump’s promised tariffs on softwood lumber risk disrupting the supply chain for something nobody wants to be caught without: toilet paper….While Trump advocates for new tariffs partly to bolster US manufacturing, they may also hit the availability of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, or NBSK, a key component in making toilet paper and paper towels. NBSK constitutes about 30% of standard U.S. bathroom tissue and half of a typical paper towel, and is currently sourced primarily from Canada, said Brian McClay, chairman of TTOBMA. He added that the U.S. imported about 2 million tons of Canadian NBSK last year, highlighting the longstanding reliance of American paper-goods producers on pulp from their northern neighbour. …“If Canadian pulp mills close because they don’t have the fibre supply, I can’t think of any other option for them — they just can’t switch the recipe around,” he said. The scenario risks reviving painful memories of pandemic-era toilet paper shortages.
Yesterday, we featured Part II of our in-depth Q&A with political risk expert Robert McKellar, a follow-up to an August 
As a federal election kicks off, the trade war with the US is casting a long shadow over voters’ choices, and whoever forms the next government will have the tall order of trying to draw this conflict to a close. …International trade experts say that will be much easier said than done. The two economies are more integrated than ever before, and President Donald Trump’s chaotic governing style makes it extremely difficult to know how to even begin to unravel this dispute. …Carney met with the country’s premiers and leaders from long-time allies in other countries to chart a short- and long-term response to the tariffs. He has conceded there’s a limit to how much Canada can do to respond. …Russell Williams at Memorial University said because Trump keeps threatening Canada’s existence, a political, rhetorical de-escalation is essential before any compromise on trade can be reached. 
US President Donald Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has threatened, aides and allies said. …The White House is narrowing its approach to take effect on April 2, likely omitting a set of industry-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal levies on a targeted set of nations that account for the bulk of foreign trade with the US. …The White House is still planning to unveil the reciprocal -tariff action on that day, though. …The fate of the sectoral tariffs, as well as tariffs on Canada and Mexico that Trump said were justified by fentanyl, remains uncertain. …The administration is now focusing on applying tariffs to about 15% of nations with persistent trade imbalances with the US… such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Vietnam.
US builders pay a premium for the spruce, pine and fir (SPF) lumber that BC produces and could soon face additional tariffs after Trump’s proclamation that America doesn’t need the province’s wood. They like it, particularly for framing walls because SPF is lighter, stronger and tighter-grained than the more abundant southern yellow pine lumber that has a reputation for warping. …“There’s just this gap between what the U.S. can supply and what their demand is,” said Kurt Niquidet, president of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council. ..“There’s no way American supply, in the short-term, can do anything but rely on Canadian lumber,” Russ Taylor said. “Tariffs are just going to push the price up and create shortages,” Taylor said. “It’s just going to be market chaos, as it will be with OSB panels as it will be with pulp and newsprint.”
COFI 2025 – April 2-4 in Prince George, BC — As BC’s forest sector grapples with significant turbulence – including US tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and sector-wide challenges in BC – strong leadership and collaboration are essential to securing a sustainable and competitive future. The “Calm, Cool, & Collaborative: Leadership for Turbulent Times” panel at the 2025 COFI Convention will bring together senior decision-makers from industry, government, and First Nations. These influential voices will share their insights on navigating market uncertainty, shaping effective policies, and strengthening community resilience. Jon our panelists: Hon. Ravi Parmar, Minister of Forests, Province of BC; Chief Councillor John Jack, Huu-ay-aht First Nations; Juan Carlos Bueno, President & CEO, Mercer International; and Lisa Dominato, Councillor, City of Vancouver for a lively discussion moderated by Greg Stewart, President, Sinclar Group Forest Products Ltd. & Chair, COFI Board of Directors. 
COFI 2025 Convention: April 2-4, Prince George, BC — The global trade landscape is evolving rapidly. Economic uncertainty, shifting regulations, and geopolitical challenges are reshaping market access for Canadian forest products. Staying competitive requires a clear understanding of emerging risks and strategic opportunities. At the COFI 2025 Convention, a panel of industry experts will examine the forces shaping international trade and explore actionable strategies to enhance industry resilience. Presenter and Moderator Russ Taylor, President, Russ Taylor Global will lead the discussion with panelists: Kate Lindsay, Senior VP & Chief Sustainability Officer, Forest Products 
The two BC regions that include resource-reliant communities like Smithers, Vanderhoof and Terrace stand to lose the most from tariffs, according to new research from the Institute for Research on Public Policy. …While BC stands to be the least affected province, tariffs are likely to cause the greatest disruptions in regions of Bulkley-Nechako and the Kitimat-Stikine. The first region depends heavily on forestry, while the second includes Rio Tinto’s aluminum smelter in Terrace. Counting existing countervailing duties, BC forest products could face tariffs exceeding 50 per cent, if not higher. …Almost three-in-10 workers in Bulkley-Nechako hold jobs in export-oriented industries with about 5.6% of the total work exposed to US tariffs. …Rounding out of the Top 5 are the Peace River and Cariboo (both 5.5%) and Kootenay-Boundary (5.4%). Regions potentially least affected by the tariffs include the Capital Region (1.5%), Squamish-Lillooet (1.4%) and the Central Coast (1.2%). Greater Vancouver’s exposure is 2.8% and the fast-growing Fraser Valley is 4%.
As Canada faces an urgent need for housing, BC’s forest sector has a critical role in meeting this demand with sustainable, high-quality wood products. Developing new strategies for how we generate and move wood fibre across the supply chain in partnership with First Nations, utilize the right wood in the right buildings, and deploy innovative pre-fab and off-site construction methods will be essential to increasing the domestic use of wood. Don’t miss this conversation on how we can help address Canada’s housing needs while driving economic growth and supporting sustainable forestry. Panelists:
The federal government is providing about $20 million in funding to support BC’s forestry sector. Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson says it’s more important than ever to support the sector, which is subject to American duties on softwood lumber and now faces the additional threat of steep tariffs. NRCan says the funding will support 67 projects. …About $11.3 million will flow through the Investments in Forest Industry Transformation program for six projects that are adopting new technologies. More than $7 million will go through the Indigenous Forestry Initiative to 50 projects advancing economic development opportunities. Another $1.6 million will go to nine projects promoting the commercialization of wood-based products in the construction sector, while $600,000 will go to projects aimed at strengthening international partnerships and decreasing market barriers. …Ottawa has also announced $5 million in funding for four projects in B.C. and one in Yukon aimed at helping laid-off workers from the forestry and mining sectors.
The federal government is providing funding to support BC’s forestry sector. …In what could mark a turning point for the Fort Nelson economy, a long-awaited pellet mill project is poised for significant progress with a $250,000 funding injection. The Fort Nelson First Nation is set to receive the funding, which will bolster its partnership with Peak Renewables. Together, they aim to convert an idle former Canfor sawmill into a large-scale wood pellet plant. …The region, historically reliant on its resource sector, has faced a number of challenges in bringing the project to fruition. In November 2020, the Fort Nelson First Nation extended a $1 million interest-free loan to Peak Renewables to advance the project. Originally, the pellet mill was slated to begin operations in early 2022. Since then, no new timeline has been provided as to when the mill may become operational. 
Several Cariboo businesses are receiving money from the BC Government to aid in some of their major projects. …$422,000 will be given to Tsi Del Del Development Corporation, 94 Mile House, to purchase equipment for the creation of a sort yard for biomass that aims to centralize the processing of waste wood … in order to manufacture higher value products. This project will create up to 16 jobs. …OT Timber Frames in 150 Mile House $235,000 to expand their production facility and two CNC machines to scale-up the production of prefabricated homes, including a new product offering, and year-round employment for staff, creating 5 jobs and protecting 20. …And $10,000 to Massive Canada Building Systems in Williams Lake to establish a new 91,000 square foot mass timber modular home manufacturing facility that will prefabricate laneway homes, apartment units, townhouses and commercial projects using mass-timber building products. This project will create 71 jobs. Funds provided through the Manufacturing Jobs Funds.
…Donald Trump is plunging North America into a trade war and clogging the flow of goods between Canada and the U.S. …Canada’s forestry industry is in the crosshairs, with a 25 per cent tariff on lumber and pulp and paper products. The likely result is higher prices on everything from the materials used to build homes to basic necessities like toilet paper. Quebec’s economy is deeply rooted in its forests… Toilet paper is a big part of that flow. Two years ago, Canada exported over $1.6 billion worth of TP, with the U.S. receiving almost all of it. …Even if American mills had the capacity to process more lumber, they’d still face a workforce problem. It’s ironic that the U.S. is penalizing Canada — a responsible steward of the trees — right after we delivered firefighters, equipment and water bombers to protect California’s trees. Canada offered its support to the U.S., but now we’re getting burned.
Flatbed trucking rates have surged over the past month as steel and lumber shippers hurry to stockpile inventory amid tariff whiplash threatening to roil their supply chains, experts say. A six-week increase in rates has led to the highest flatbed pricing to start a year since 2017, according to DAT, as freight repositioning combines with a typical seasonal pickup in construction and other industries. “Demand usually picks up in March and April as planti ng, building, construction, machinery imports, and nursery seasons gear up,” said DAT Principal Analyst Dean Croke. “…Last week, the average flatbed spot rate went up 4 cents to $2.13 per mile compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the load-to-truck ratio for flatbed went up to 46.92 from 41.12 loads per truck.Shippers have pulled forward cargo imports such as machinery, lumber, metals and oversized flatbed freight to mitigate tariff uncertainty. 
US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat could motivate more Canadian lumber producers to shift to the US southern border while accelerating efforts to find new markets, industry experts said. The levies are the latest in a nearly four-decade dispute between the neighbors over softwood lumber, used in construction, furniture and paper production. Levies on Canadian lumber could hit 40% if current duties of 14.54%, and Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs are added. …”Disparity in log costs and availability are the major drivers here, but Canadian investment in the region has certainly been partially motivated to moving operations where they avoid the impact of duties,” said Dustin Jalbert at FastMarkets. …”In 2004, there were only two sawmills owned by a Canadian manufacturer. Today, we have more than 50,” said Kyle Little, at Sherwood Lumber.” Canadian companies now produce more than a third of the volume of the largest producing region in the US – the US South.”
If there is a prolonged trade war between the US and Canada, expect insurance rates… to rise in price. The industry notes there’s a lot of uncertainty about tariffs right now. But one outcome the industry can likely count on is increases to home and auto rates, says Steven Harris. …Although home insurance premiums haven’t increased as high as auto rates — in 2024 Q4, for example, personal property premium rates increased 7.3% from the previous year — consumers are likely to see any impacts from the tariffs appear on their home insurance policy renewal much sooner, says Harris. “And if building materials like software lumber are tariffed, and thereby more expensive to import, they’ll cost more to insure. …“Tariffs on building materials directly inflate rebuilding expenses, necessitating higher replacement cost coverage for homeowners.”
CNN’s Vanessa Yurkevich explains how much US home prices could increase due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. [Video report only, 2 .5 minutes]
The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and Canada is impacting BC’s construction sector in ways that could bring short-term gain and long-term pain. At first, there could be an oversupply of lumber if Canadian softwood is taken out of the U.S. equation, resulting in lower costs for B.C. builders and developers, said Padraic Kelly, Vancouver-based director with BTY Group. But costs would later rise significantly, he said. “The medium- and long-term pain would be that if the American market is choked out, mills would close, supply would be constrained and costs would ultimately go up,” Kelly said. The total levy on Canadian softwood lumber going into the U.S. could total between 45% and 55%, taking into account anti-dumping measures introduced by the Biden administration and scheduled to increase this August. Other big-ticket impacts to B.C. construction could be the mechanical and electrical divisions within construction budgets, he said.
EAST HANTS, Nova Scotia — The Honourable Kody Blois, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food, announced federal funding for MTC Mass Timber Company (MTC) to support its move to technology-driven manufacturing that will create high-value mass timber products in Nova Scotia. Through an investment of $500,000, MTC will advance the detailed design of Canada’s first large-scale, clear-span mass timber manufacturing structure that would house a new industrial plant. Once constructed, MTC will be Canada’s first vertically integrated mass timber manufacturer in Atlantic Canada, allowing further growth of the region’s offsite building construction sector and improving access to housing for Nova Scotians. MTC was also conditionally approved for $10 million in federal support, subject to the required due diligence measures, and the negotiation of a final agreement.
OTTAWA — The Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson announced a $16.3 million investment over the next three years, starting in 2024–25, to support 25 projects through the Government of Canada’s Fighting and Managing Wildfires in a Changing Climate Program (FMWCC) – Training Fund. Through this investment, over 2,800 youth and community members in remote, rural and Indigenous communities across Canada will receive wildland firefighting training to enhance community capacity for responding to and managing wildfires. …Some of the projects funded through the FMWCC Training Fund include: $329,109 to the Keewaytinook Okimakanak’s project in Thunder Bay, Ontario… $499,330 to the Metis Settlements General Council’s project in Edmonton, Alberta… $946,330 to Prince Albert Development Corporation Management Co. Ltd.’s project in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan… and $1,999,999 to the Independent First Nations Alliance’s (IFNA) project in Sioux Lookout, Ontario.
If you’ve noticed smoke on days it hasn’t been snowing or raining recently, it’s likely from a prescribed burn. Local governments across the Okanagan including the Westbank First Nation are working to finish as many of their prescribed burn operations as possible before the weather gets too hot and dry. A prescribed burn, sometimes called a controlled burn, is a planned and intentional use of fire on a specific land area to reduce wildfire risk, improve wildlife habitat, or restore ecosystems… The McDougall Creek wildfire was one of the most destructive local wildfires in recent memory, destroying 303 structures in West Kelowna, Westbank First Nation, Kelowna and the RDCO. The Insurance Bureau of Canada estimated the fire caused $480 million in insured damage.
A draft co-management framework and plan to manage North Cowichan’s 5,000-hectare municipal forest reserve likely won’t be presented until sometime in 2026. The municipality and the Quw’utsun Nation (which consists of Cowichan Tribes, Halalt First Nation, Lyackson First Nation, Penelakut Tribe, and Stz’uminus First Nation) agreed in April, 2024, that they would work together to establish a co-management framework and plan for the forest reserve, and that work is still ongoing. North Cowichan’s communications director Barb Floden said the municipality and the Quw’utsun Nation issued a joint request for proposals to support the development of the co-management plan in February, which will be closing soon, and it is expected that the draft framework and plan will be ready next year. “The public will be kept informed of the process through joint statements and updates at council meetings,” Floden said.
A Canfor operation in Prince George and three area First Nations have received federal funding to boost innovation in forestry. The $293,500 in local funding is part of more than $20 million the Canadian government is investing in 67 projects province-wide. The funds are part of a broader effort to enhance the competitiveness and resiliency of Canada’s forest industry, which has faced increasing trade barriers, particularly from the US. Among the recipients is Canadian Forest Products, or Canfor, which will receive up to $121,500 for a project aimed at producing innovative, formaldehyde-free and isocyanate-free wood adhesives. The company will explore extracting kraft lignin from black liquor at its Northwood mill in Prince George, converting it into a new, sustainable bioproduct. The project aims to determine the commercial viability of this process, which could open up new revenue streams and reduce reliance on harmful chemicals.
At UBC’s Faculty of Forestry, we are shaping a sustainable, biodiverse, and inclusive future by advancing the stewardship of forests and the environment. The Faculty is Canada’s largest forestry school, welcoming over 1,600 students annually. Our innovative research, hands-on education, and community engagement are addressing some of the most pressing global challenges. This Giving Day, we’re proud to feature the 
More than $2.3 million in funding is coming to Vancouver Island to help First Nations and forestry businesses. Federal natural resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson announced the funding this week, saying it shows a commitment to defending and strengthening BC’s forestry sector. In total the federal government is funding 67 projects with $20 million across BC.
Apologies are in order if anyone blamed it on the dog. The Kruger pulp mill on Mission Flats Road says it is responsible for what some might have noticed was a stronger than usual odour in the air in Kamloops late Friday afternoon. According to Kruger spokesperson Paule Veilleux-Turcotte, the smell was the result of a failure in the mill’s odour control equipment. “The plant halted its operations to repair the equipment, but, despite shutting down, some residual levels of the gases would still have been noticeable within the community,” Veilleux-Turcotte said in an email to Castanet Kamloops. “Despite the equipment issues, operations remained in compliance with the site permit for the duration of the event.” Veilleux-Turcotte said the issue was fixed by about 10 p.m. on Friday night, and, upon confirmation of the repairs, the mill resumed operations. [END]
Headlines in this month’s news include: