Robert McKellar
You know that times have changed when a political risk consultant experienced in managing challenges for companies working in the Middle East or West Africa casts an eye on BC’s forest industry. …The TLA and its members already manage political risk to BC’s logging industry, but given what lies ahead, a broader and more explicit political risk mindset can only help. On the domestic front, provincial and federal government policy is an ongoing source of political risk. …This is not a new challenge, but it has become particularly pressing in the context of the shockwaves from the return of Donald Trump and the threat of tariffs and duties. …The lack of provincial and federal government regulatory clarity alongside a serious squeeze in the US market, means that the lumber industry is somewhat impaired and confused just when it needs to be maximally focused and agile, and capable of inspiring investor confidence.
White House aides have drafted a proposal that would levy tariffs of roughly 20% on most imports, the Washington Post reported. The report cited three people familiar with the matter. It also said White House advisers cautioned that several options are still on the table, meaning the 20% tariffs may not come to pass. Another plan being considered is the country-by-country “reciprocal” approach, according to the Washington Post. The report comes a day before April 2, when President Donald Trump is set to announce his larger plans for global trade. The date has loomed over Wall Street, where stocks have been struggling in part due to uncertainty around rapidly changing global trade policy. Unlike the tariffs already announced by the Trump administration, the new plan is expected to be more widespread and permanent as opposed to targeting specific countries or industries. 
President Trump’s promised tariffs on softwood lumber risk disrupting the supply chain for something nobody wants to be caught without: toilet paper….While Trump advocates for new tariffs partly to bolster US manufacturing, they may also hit the availability of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, or NBSK, a key component in making toilet paper and paper towels. NBSK constitutes about 30% of standard U.S. bathroom tissue and half of a typical paper towel, and is currently sourced primarily from Canada, said Brian McClay, chairman of TTOBMA. He added that the U.S. imported about 2 million tons of Canadian NBSK last year, highlighting the longstanding reliance of American paper-goods producers on pulp from their northern neighbour. …“If Canadian pulp mills close because they don’t have the fibre supply, I can’t think of any other option for them — they just can’t switch the recipe around,” he said. The scenario risks reviving painful memories of pandemic-era toilet paper shortages.
CALIFORNIA — The US Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that it had reached an $8.1 million settlement in a civil False Claims Act case based on alleged customs violations by defendants Evolutions Flooring, a San Francisco-based importer of wood flooring, and its owners Mengya Lin and Jin Qian. …The complaint shows how DOJ and relators may formulate such cases. Evolutions and its owners were accused of knowingly evading customs duties, including antidumping duties, countervailing duties, and section 301 tariffs, on wood flooring manufactured in the People’s Republic of China. Acting at the direction of its owners, Evolutions allegedly mispresented the country of origin of certain flooring imports – declaring them as Malaysia-origin – to avoid the high duties applicable to China-origin products. Evolutions also allegedly falsely declared the true manufacturer of the imported merchandise. 
VERMONT — Oliver Pierson, Vermont state’s director of forestry, and Katharine Servidio, mapped out the [tarrif] tangle for the House Committee on Agriculture, Food Resiliency, and Forestry. As sawmill capacity in the U.S. has retracted, New England’s loggers have looked to Canada to process timber felled on this side of the border. …Vermont imported $52 million in sawmill and wood products from Canada in 2024, according to Pierson. …There is a case for bringing more milling back to America, Pierson said, but “it wouldn’t be for a year or two from now when we’d be able to stand up additional processing capacity.” In the short term, Servidio and Pierson said that they expect that U.S. tariffs on lumber imported from Canada and retaliatory Canadian tariffs on Vermont timber will be debilitating for the logging industry in the state.
The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and Canada is impacting BC’s construction sector in ways that could bring short-term gain and long-term pain. At first, there could be an oversupply of lumber if Canadian softwood is taken out of the U.S. equation, resulting in lower costs for B.C. builders and developers, said Padraic Kelly, Vancouver-based director with BTY Group. But costs would later rise significantly, he said. “The medium- and long-term pain would be that if the American market is choked out, mills would close, supply would be constrained and costs would ultimately go up,” Kelly said. The total levy on Canadian softwood lumber going into the U.S. could total between 45% and 55%, taking into account anti-dumping measures introduced by the Biden administration and scheduled to increase this August. Other big-ticket impacts to B.C. construction could be the mechanical and electrical divisions within construction budgets, he said.
Donald Trump’s trade war is alarming the global markets, sending shares sliding in their worst month in over two years. Stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region are in retreat this morning, as investors fear Trump will announce swingeing new tariffs on Wednesday, which has been dubbed “Liberation Day” by the US president. Japan’s Nikkei has lost 3.9%, down 1,457 points at 35,662 points today, while South Korea’s KOSPI is down 3%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has fallen 1.7%. In China, which has already been hit by Trump tariffs this year. the CSI 300 is 0.9% lower. …Today’s selloff comes after Donald Trump told reporters that the reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce this week will include all nations. …On Friday, core inflation rose by more than expected, while consumer sentiment weakened to its lowest level since 2022. 
The Province of Ontario says it’s prepared for the fast-approaching 2025 wildland fire season. The new season starts on April 1, and preparations have included filling more than 100 new, permanent positions to help support forest fire fighting operations, said Chris Marchand, fire information officer with Aviation, Forest Fire and Emergency Services (AFFES). …Exactly how busy this season will be remains unknown, Marchand said, as it’s very difficult to predict how intense a fire season will be. …Marchand said the previous winter saw “somewhat normal” snowfall patterns across Ontario. …Marchand noted, however, that the 2024 fire season was slower than usual — 480 fires were reported, down from the 10-year, seasonal average of 700 fires. The Province of Ontario said it partnered with the federal government last year to invest $64 million in the provincial wil
The world is running out of time to halt deforestation. Yet instead of stepping up, the US is dismantling forest protections and undermining global progress – highlighting the dangers of global forest policy that fails to hold the wealthiest, most powerful countries accountable. …But the latest actions by the US highlight just how dangerous and unbalanced this paradigm is. …Under the pretense of national security, Trump’s orders aim to gut environmental safeguards and fast-track industrial clearcutting in some of the US’s most precious and climate-critical forests. …Meanwhile, as Europe strengthens forest accountability, US state officials are pushing to exempt the country from new deforestation protections.. These officials, echoing industry talking points, are urging the EU to exclude US wood products from a law requiring due diligence to prevent imports or exports tied to deforestation or forest degradation. Their argument? That the US doesn’t need oversight.