Better Growth, Larger Deficits: CBO Fiscal Outlook

By Jesse Wade
NAHB Eye on Housing
October 17, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a key nonpartisan score keeper that measures the effects of policy changes by the Federal Government. With several policy changes since January of this year, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), stricter immigration, and higher tariffs, the CBO updated its economic projections through 2028. Primarily, the CBO forecasts higher growth in the coming year with higher deficits also around the corner. The updated CBO view of the economy projects lower GDP growth in 2025 due to negative effects of tariffs. However, this is followed by stronger growth in 2026 as supply chains adjusted to tariffs and the OBBBA boosts consumption and private investment. More growth is forecasted for 2027 and 2028 as the economy adjusts to lower net immigration but is partially offset by higher domestic production because of tariff protection.

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