Canadian officials are adopting a different tone after President Donald Trump ordered a study of the United States’ trade relationship with Canada, pushing the threat of devastating tariffs down the road — temporarily. “We need to move from a defensive position to offensive in the sense that we have a lot of good things to put on the table,” Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said. Trump signed the America First Trade Policy Monday evening, providing Ottawa with some insights into his tariff agenda. The memorandum orders multiple federal agencies to study trade policies and trade deficits. It directs the secretary of commerce and the secretary of homeland security to assess migration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico and China and recommend “appropriate trade and national security measures to resolve that emergency. It also signalled the U.S. trade representative to start consultations around the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement and “make recommendations regarding the United States’ participation in the agreement.”
BC could face severe economic consequences from president-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports. The province projects a cumulative economic loss of $69 billion over four years, with real GDP potentially declining by 0.6% annually in 2025 and 2026. The BC. Ministry of Finance, estimates significant job losses and revenue reductions during this period, with the unemployment rate possibly increasing to 6.7% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026. The tariff’s effects on the labor market could result in 124,000 job losses by 2028, with the most affected sectors being natural resources, manufacturing, transportation, and retail. Corporate profits could decrease annually by $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion. …Experts indicate that the tariffs could disrupt the US lumber supply chain. Rajan Parajuli, an NC State University professor, said that… US lumber producers might profit from higher prices, consumers would face increased costs if demand remains steady. The Peterson Institute for International Economics notes that these tariffs could extend beyond Canada, impacting the broader wood product sector.
The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau announced that he will hold a Cabinet retreat in the Outaouais region, Quebec, from January 20 to 21, 2025. With the threats of tariffs from the incoming United States administration, Cabinet will protect and defend Canadian interests, strengthen Canada’s relationship with the U.S., and make unequivocally clear the mutually beneficial trade and security relationship the two countries share. Cabinet will build on Canada’s strong relationship with its closest ally to advance shared priorities. This includes bolstering cross-border trade, reinforcing our supply chains, and creating jobs on both sides of the border. Canada’s recent $1.3 billion border security plan is a testament to our commitment to the shared security and prosperity of Canadians and Americans alike.
Nicolas Schmitt, an economics professor at SFU, highlighted that the province’s economy has shifted from a goods-based to a service-driven model. He said this transition has made the economy more diversified and resilient. With key regions like Vancouver and the Okanagan Valley showing strong growth in service sectors, B.C. is well-positioned to withstand global economic uncertainties and to continue thriving. “This war might affect more interior B.C. than urban B.C. That is a potential problem for the interior. Where those lumber mines and all those goods are being exported. So that creates an urban rural divide.” In a statement provided by Kurt Niquidet president of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council, he said federal parties must collaborate to tackle the ongoing softwood lumber duties and the potential imposition of further tariffs. …While B.C.’s diversified economy offers resilience, the potential impacts on industries like lumber, especially in rural areas, require attention. 
Donald Trump is threatening to use “economic force” to make Canada the 51st American state. While his comments may be reckless, they are in part due to Canada’s over-reliance on the US market in terms of trade. The benefits of international trade are undoubtedly positive. It’s well-established that when countries can produce a product or service more cheaply than others, giving them what’s known as a “comparative advantage,” all other nations engaged will gain from that trade. …But the key challenge Canadian policymakers face is an over-reliance on the US as Canada’s primary market, with 75% of all Canadian exports headed south. …Canada can no longer take easy access to the U.S. market for granted. …Bringing down barriers to trade across Canadian provinces would create conditions that could enable Canadian companies to be more competitive internationally, and beyond the U.S. market in particular.
GATINEAU, QUE. — An agreement has been reached between the Competition Bureau and Rona Inc. in relation to concerns about the company’s proposed acquisition of 
VANCOUVER, BC – Western Forest Products announced that its hourly employees represented by United Steelworkers Local 1- 1937 have voted to ratify a new collective agreement. The new six-year collective agreement has a retroactive effective date of June 15, 2024, will expire June 14, 2030 and provides for the following general wage increases: Year 1 – 4%, Year 2 though Year 5 – 3%, and Year 6 – greater of 3% or the rate of inflation. The new agreement also includes enhancements to certain benefits and terms of mutual interest for the USW and the Company. …Western’s President and CEO Steven Hofer said: “We are pleased that our USW-represented team members have found it meets their interests and needs. …The BC forest sector is facing many challenges, and we look forward to working together with our union colleagues to build a brighter future for our company.”
New Westminster, BC — The Canadian Mill Services Association (CMSA) is announcing that it has completed a purchase agreement with the BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI) to acquire the COFI Quality Control (QC) operations and to merge them into CMSA. This has involved the transfer of the rights and trademarks to use the COFI grade stamps, and the Interior Lumber Manufacturers’ (ILMA) grade stamps as well as the transfer of the quality control employees from COFI to CMSA. As of December 31, 2024 COFI ceases to offer QC services and the former COFI customers who were using these services are encouraged to join CMSA as active Members. With completion of the merger, CMSA will now provide all the necessary Quality Control Services including Educational Training and Support to its active members. CMSA shall continue to be members of the NLGA, CLSAB and ALSC and will continue to represent its members with the Canadian Wood Council.
VANCOUVER — Conifex Timber announced that it has amended and restated its existing credit agreement with PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. The restated agreement increases the aggregate principal amount of the secured term loan provided thereunder to up to $41 million, of which $5 million is available immediately, and the remaining $11 million is subject to completion of financial diligence. …“The additional borrowings will be used to fund a build-up in sawlog inventories to support our transition to a two-shift operation at our sawmill complex, effective January 6, 2025,” commented Conifex’s Chairman and CEO, Ken Shields. The decision to move to a two-shift operation was based on a steadily improving backdrop for lumber prices, as evidenced by the 18% improvement in cash prices for Spruce Pine Fir benchmark lumber prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 relative to those in the third quarter of 2024. 
…Washington argues stumpage fees are too low and give Canadian loggers a competitive advantage over U.S. producers, which harvest timber largely from private lands and bid against each other for the privilege. The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to release its next preliminary duty rates on lumber in early May, or 90 days later than originally planned. Its sixth administrative review is based on lumber markets in 2023, when prices were low. Analysts say U.S. duty rates imposed on Canadian softwood could double in 2025 and reach nearly 30 per cent. …U.S.-headquartered lumber producers and timberland owners who complained about Canadian softwood ended up receiving 10 per cent of the US$5-billion in softwood duties paid in the previous round of the dispute, from 2001 to 2006. Canadian companies recouped 80 per cent of the funds while 9 per cent went to “meritorious initiatives” in the U.S., with the remaining 1 per cent allocated to promoting lumber in both countries. Vancouver-based forestry analyst Russ Taylor said, it’s unclear how much Canada will recover in U.S. duties already paid since 2017. [A Globe and Mail subscription is required to read this article in full]
The B.C. government has appointed a new chair and three new directors to the BC Hydro board of directors. …Glen Clark has been appointed the new chair of the BC Hydro board of directors. Clark will take over the post from current chair, Lori Wanamaker, whose term will end on Dec. 31, 2024. …Merran Smith is president of New Economy Canada and brings award-winning leadership uniting industry, government and civil-society partners. …Brynn Bourke is executive director of the BC Building Trades (BCBT). …Don Kayne is president and CEO of Canfor Corporation, and former CEO of Canfor Pulp Products Inc. Kayne has deep experience in international sales and marketing, human resources and executive compensation through 45 years with the forest company. 
Washington, D.C. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture today announced the names of the following individuals who will hold senior staff positions in Washington, D.C. These appointees have been selected to implement President Trump’s America First agenda, ensuring that the needs of America’s farmers, ranchers, and producers remain a top priority.
Advisors on Trump’s incoming economic team are considering a gradual implementation of tariffs, increasing them incrementally each month. This approach is intended to strengthen their negotiating position while minimizing the risk of sudden inflation, according to sources familiar with the discussions. One concept involves a plan to raise tariffs by 2% to 5% per month, using executive powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The idea is still in its early stages and has not yet been formally presented to Trump, indicating that the strategy is in the initial phase of consideration. Trump has not yet approved of the plan. Supporters include Trump advisors Bessent, Haslett and Miran. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
It may take months, if not years, to rebuild after the wildfires in Southern California, raising the likelihood of a spike in demand for lumber in the months and years ahead. The rebuilding process after events such as these “typically drives a significant demand for building materials, particularly lumber, given its foundational role in construction,” said Michael Goodman, of building-materials wholesaler Sherwood Lumber. The California wildfires could slow the economy and boost inflation – and that’s not even the worst of it, economists say. …Looking at the bigger picture for the lumber market, Kuta said, “if one believes that interest rates will gradually moderate lower, we as a nation [would still be] woefully underbuilt and in need of new residential housing.” Among the companies to consider are lumber providers Canfor Corp. and West Fraser Timber Co. and timberland company Weyerhaeuser Co., well as building-material suppliers Builders FirstSource Inc. and Boise Cascade Co. 
A new lawsuit accuses Procter & Gamble of deceiving Charmin purchasers with misleading environmental claims, known as greenwashing, about how it sources its toilet paper. In a proposed class action on Thursday, eight consumers said Procter & Gamble obtains most wood pulp for Charmin from the Canadian boreal forest… through harmful logging practices such as clear cutting and burning. The consumers called this sourcing “completely at odds” with Procter & Gamble’s public commitment to protecting the environment, including its “Keep Forests as Forests” campaign and the “Protect-Grow-Restore” logo found on Charmin packages. The lawsuit called the display of logos from the Forest Stewardship Council and Rainforest Alliance misleading because Procter & Gamble uses little pulp from FSC-certified forests and the Rainforest Alliance no longer has a certification program. …The lawsuit… seeks restitution, compensatory damages and punitive damages for violations of consumer protection laws in 28 U.S. states and Washington, D.C.
The union representing 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts and their employers on Wednesday said they reached a tentative deal on a new six-year contract, averting further strikes that could have snarled supply chains and taken a toll on the U.S. economy. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employer group, called the agreement a “win-win.” The deal includes a resolution in automation, which had been the thorniest issue of on the table. …”This agreement establishes a framework for implementing technologies that will create more jobs while modernizing East and Gulf coast ports.” Terms of the deal were not disclosed. ILA and USMX have agreed to continue operating until the contract is ratified. …Employers at the ports stretching from Maine to Texas include terminal operators like APM, owned by Maersk, as well as China’s COSCO Shipping and Switzerland’s MSC.