Kelly McCloskey
Robert McKellar
When we first reached out to political risk expert Robert McKellar in mid-2024, our goal was to spark a conversation the forest sector wasn’t yet having—about political risk and its growing influence on everything from trade policy to investment decisions. Robert’s op-ed in August, 2024 made the case that political risk is not just something that happens in volatile regions—it is the exposure of businesses to political forces, whether through government policies, trade dynamics, or geopolitical shifts. He identified major political forces impacting the Canadian forest sector—including the growing China-West rivalry and Canada-US trade friction—to help companies assess the relevance of political risk for themselves. In hindsight, his foresights were well placed.
After the election of President Trump and given how quickly the trade situation evolved, we reached out to Robert a few weeks ago to re-examine these dynamics. And given the complexities, we decided on a two-part approach. In Part I, in February 2025, Robert set the stage by looking at Trump’s leadership style and his approach to business, he outlined how forest product companies can assess and manage political risk, and then he focused on the most pressing risk to the sector—tariffs. The other risks—lumber duties, interference in Canadian-owned US-based industries, and the impact of US-China trade tensions on lumber sales—were left for Part II. In that this is a long read, in the “READ MORE document” are the following hyperlinked-titles—should you wish to proceed directly to a given section:
- Recap of Part I
- Is Trump toying with Canada or is there a plan?
- The latest on duties and tariffs
- Are Canadian US-subsidiaries at risk?
- US-China friction and lumber sales
- How to plan and manage for political risk
This isn’t a typical industry commentary. It’s not about what government should do, or where markets might go next. It’s about what companies can do now to better anticipate, adapt to, and, at times, even leverage political disruption. [full disclosure, Robert McKellar is Tree Frog co-editor Sandy McKellar’s brother]
In the face of the unjustified economic attack by the leader of our U.S. neighbours, Canadian Forest Owners (CFO) stand fast as your good neighbours, who are committed to sustainable forest management for resilient, thriving communities coast to coast. Last week’s announced tariffs on Canada’s wood products by U.S. President Trump will harm not just forest landowners but local mills, workers and their families, communities, especially rural ones, and customers on both sides of the border. Together we stand firm with our colleagues in industry and the federal and provincial governments to strengthen the Canadian forest sector and work to bolster family woodlots and the economies of rural communities.
While the market tries to process what’s to come on the trade front, it’s abundantly clear that the new administration is paying special attention to lumber and likely other wood products. Trump and his surrogates have emphasized the point of view that the US has the underlying resources to produce all its own lumber and wood product needs. In response, there have been a number of news articles highlighting the statements and questioning the idea of whether or not America can quickly and completely wean itself off Canadian wood products. …Canada currently supplies about 12.0 BBF of softwood lumber to the US market. After accounting for the 1.3 BBF of exports the US has shipped in recent years, the US is still short just over 3.2 BBF of operable capacity to quickly fill Canadian lumber supply and still meet current demand levels. In other words, at current demand levels, the US softwood lumber market does not clear without Canadian supply.
We’re proud to share that in 2024 the Tree Frog Forestry News readership surged by an impressive 44%, reaching 105,411 unique users (per Google Analytics)! This remarkable growth far outpaces our average annual increase of ~20% over the past decade. Even more, our audience is becoming increasingly continental: in 2020, 22% of our readers were US-based, but by 2024, that number climbed to 39%. Canada still leads at 51%, with the remaining 10% representing international readers from the UK, Australia, Japan, India, and beyond.
President-elect Donald Trump has justified his threat of 25% tariffs on Canada by pointing to the US trade deficit. Top Canadian economists have a response to that: it’s all because your country wants cheap oil. The US is on track to end 2024 with the largest overall trade deficit in its history. Its imbalance with Canada is about $60 billion. …Trump has repeatedly claimed the deficit is a subsidy to the Canadian economy, and said Tuesday the US doesn’t need anything from Canada. Import and export data, however, paint a different picture. Among the US’s top partners, its trade with Canada is the most equally balanced — because Canada buys $85 million from the US for every $100 million it exports. When stripping out oil and gas, the US actually has a significant trade surplus with Canada — its biggest energy supplier and a key buyer of American products from food to machinery.
The U.S. Commerce Department today announced new preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber imports of 20%. …The duties won’t become final until August, when final determinations are expected to be made. …The new preliminary duties is just the first shot across the bow in what is expected to be a nasty trade war, with additional tariffs that may be layered on top of duties. …Anti-dumping and countervailing duties have been in place on Canadian softwood lumber at varying levels since 2017, following the expiration of the last softwood lumber agreement in 2015. The duties on Canadian softwood lumber have been effective in shrinking Canada’s market share… from about 35% in 2016, to about 24% as of the end of 2024.
Vancouver —Forest Professionals British Columbia (FPBC) honoured 11 individuals as part of its recognition program in Victoria on February 6. FPBC recognized four Distinguished Forest Professionals, one Forest Professional of the Year, one volunteer of the year, and five authors for best magazine article at the 77th FPBC forestry conference recognition banquet. Mark Hay, RPF, of Vernon, Steve Kozuki, RPF(Ret), of Williams Lake, Randy Waterous, RFT, of Grand Forks, and the late Cindy Stern, RPF, of Parksville, were honoured as Distinguished Forest Professionals. This category recognizes significant accomplishments over a career, for providing outstanding service to the profession of forestry and for furthering the principles of FPBC. It is the profession’s highest honour for a registrant. Colin Mahony, PhD, RPF, of Victoria, is the Forest Professional of the Year, recognizing a Registered Professional Forester (RPF), Registered Forest Technologist (RFT), or Affiliated Forest Professional (AFP) for recent, outstanding service to the profession of forestry and furthering the principles of FPBC.
On Day 1 of the Truck Loggers Association 80th Annual Convention, Russ Taylor and Don Wright tackled the pressing question:
Are you looking to enhance your skills in the lumber and sawmill sector? Onboarding new employees that would benefit from formal education in the field? Are you seeking to provide your employees with essential business skills for professional development? BCIT is currently offering two Associate Certificates to help you: 
The BC Forest History Association is thrilled to welcome Don Pigott as our December Speaker Series guest! Don will share his expertise on the evolution of cone collection in British Columbia over the past century. With 50 years of experience, he’ll also highlight some of the seed-related projects that have shaped his career and the field of forestry. No forester is too young, old, inexperienced, or seasoned to learn something from Don!
About the Speaker: Don Pigott’s career spans decades of groundbreaking work in forestry and silviculture. During his 13 years at MacMillan Bloedel, he managed seed supply for reforestation, established seed orchards, and oversaw operational tree improvement programs. In 1982, Don founded Yellow Point Propagation Ltd., a private silviculture company providing comprehensive services, including cone and seed processing, and consulting for forestry projects across North America and Europe. For the past 16 years, Yellow Point Propagation has focused on gene conservation for whitebark pine, limber pine, alpine larch, and numerous other species, further cementing Don’s legacy as a pioneer in forestry innovation. Don’t miss this opportunity to learn from an expert with unparalleled insights into forestry’s past, present, and future.
At the TLA Conference, the Securing the Future for BC’s Forestry Contractors panel addressed critical challenges facing contractors amidst declining allowable annual cuts (AAC) and rising operational costs. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured Bob Brash, Executive Director of the TLA; Chris Duncan, Partner at MNP LLP; and Dorian Uzzell, TLA President and contractor. Brash, stepping in for Michael Armstrong, highlighted how reduced AAC and increasing costs strain contractors and communities reliant on forestry. Duncan shared insights on a project to establish a standardized framework for rate negotiations, emphasizing transparency and financial stability as vital for contractor sustainability. Uzzell provided firsthand perspectives, stressing the need for workforce development and stronger contractor representation in policy discussions.
The TLA panel Public and Political Influence focused on strategies to connect the forestry sector with the public and policymakers. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, it featured Derek Nighbor of FPAC, radio host Simi Sara, and content creator Bob Kronbauer. Nighbor emphasized the need to “meet people where they are” using relatable storytelling and digital campaigns, highlighting FPAC’s efforts to counter misinformation and advocate for sustainable forestry. Sara highlighted the media’s role in making forestry narratives accessible and engaging. She critiqued the industry’s lack of outreach and urged it to embrace social media to reach younger audiences. Kronbauer underscored the power of authentic storytelling. Drawing on examples like “Potato Ty,” he urged industry professionals to use platforms like Instagram to share unfiltered stories that resonate with audiences, fostering appreciation and countering negative stereotypes.
Premier David Eby began his address to the Truck Loggers Association (TLA) Leader’s Luncheon by addressing the economic uncertainty posed by U.S. trade policies, both the existing softwood lumber duties and the proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian imports. He outlined the significant economic impact of the tariffs on BC, should they be implemented and last for four years, which is the loss of over 100,000 jobs and $60 billion in GDP. Working in concert with the rest of Canada, Eby said there are three components to BC’s response. First, retaliatory tariffs would target key U.S. political districts heavily reliant on Canadian goods. …Second, the strategy emphasizes strengthening BC’s economy by addressing bureaucratic delays, accelerating permitting processes, and improving infrastructure. …Third, the plan focuses on market diversification, with initiatives to deepen trade relationships in Asia and other international markets.
The Politics over Lunch panel at the TLA Conference featured Rob Shaw, Richard Zussman, and moderator Vaughn Palmer, offering insights into BC’s political dynamics and their implications for forestry. The discussion focused heavily on the NDP-Green Party agreement and its announcement of a comprehensive review of forestry policies. Shaw expressed frustration with the process’s redundancy, questioning, “What in the world do you have to do another review for at this point?” Zussman described the agreement as more “political positioning than practical policy”, urging industry to actively engage in the process to ensure their concerns and advancements are recognized. The panelists emphasized that this review presents an opportunity for the sector to highlight its advancements in carbon sequestration, sustainable harvesting, and Indigenous partnerships. They urged proactive engagement with policymakers to ensure practical outcomes. The panel concluded with strategies for improving media engagement, stressing transparency, timely communication, and relatable storytelling to rebuild public trust and reshape perceptions of the forestry sector.
The Wildfire and Climate Mitigation Strategies panel at the TLA Conference brought together experts to address BC’s escalating wildfire risks and explore climate-conscious forestry solutions. Moderated by Vaughn Palmer, the session featured John Davies, Jason Fisher, David Greer, and Jamie Stephen. John Davies emphasized the importance of integrating wildfire risk assessments into forestry planning and shifting from reactive firefighting to proactive measures like prescribed burns and mechanical thinning. Jason Fisher highlighted community-centred approaches, showcasing partnerships with Indigenous communities and forest enhancement initiatives that reduce wildfire risks and boost ecological resilience. David Greer provided insights into the evolution of wildfire management, stressing year-round strategies and shared responsibility through initiatives like FireSmart and risk-sharing partnerships. Jamie Stephen explored the role of bioenergy, advocating for policies that leverage forest biomass to reduce fuel loads and support rural economies while meeting climate goals. The panel underscored the need for collaboration, innovation, and sustainable investments to build resilient forests and communities.
The Our Path Forward panel at the Truck Loggers Association (TLA) Conference explored the future of BC’s forest industry, moderated by Vaughn Palmer. Jeff Bromley, Chair of the United Steelworkers Wood Council, stressed the need for collaboration, bold leadership, and revenue-sharing models with First Nations to address the industry’s challenges, including mill closures and declining annual allowable cuts. Ken Kalesnikoff, President of Kalesnikoff Lumber, highlighted his company’s shift from traditional sawmilling to value-added mass timber production. He showcased seismic-resistant structures and modular prefabricated components, emphasizing the role of innovation and government incentives in supporting rural economies and sustainable practices. Shannon Janzen of Iskum Investments shared insights on integrating Indigenous perspectives, advocating for “unlearning” outdated practices and embracing collaboration to redefine success. Dr. Michelle Corfield emphasized the need for systemic reforms, such as increased Indigenous representation and equitable revenue-sharing, to achieve reconciliation and foster economic resilience.